Featuring picks and comments by Rob Dudek
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My weather advice was dubious on Thursday, but our baseball picks were excellent. Hope you cashed too.
There’s a full slate of Friday MLB games, all in the evening. Playing amateur meteorologist again, a gigantic line of thunderstorms stretches from south of New Orleans through Detroit into Canada. It’s moving eastward, with possible tornadoes in its path. Games in Philadelphia and Baltimore seem most likely to be affected; depending on the storm’s easterly progress, it could threaten the Mets game as well.
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Best Bets (Pitchers)
The main risk for Stephen Strasburg ($17,124) is weather. An average lineup, a good pitcher’s park and his excellent stuff make him a relatively low-risk selection despite the high price. Matt Harvey ($15,343) could make this quite a duel; he’s 3-0 with a scintillating 0.82 ERA but the Nationals’ lineup is a tougher test than his previous victims.
Madison Bumgarner ($16,980) is another safe play among the higher-priced SP. At home against San Diego is a favorable matchup, even though the Padres just swept the Dodgers in L.A. and thumped lefty ace Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday.
I’m a big fan of any pitcher against the Marlins, who managed only one run last night off southpaw Tony Cingrani in his MLB debut. Mat Latos ($15,426) has had three respectable no-decisions against better teams and should get that elusive first W tonight.
Clay Buchholz ($14,472) is our consensus #1 SP tonight. “I think we are seeing the emergence of the elite pitcher many of us thought he’d be since his rookie year,” says Rob. “It will be an emotional game for the hometown Red Sox and Buchholz could produce something special.”
Live Longshots (Pitchers)
Brandon Morrow ($9,527) is a proven talent with an enticing salary. “Even if he doesn’t have his strikeout pitch, Morrow can move the ball around the zone and maintain effectiveness,” Dudek points out. The Yankees played 12 innings last night and lost; they might be fatigued and apart from Robinson Cano ($12,711), they lack lefty power.
Jason Hammel ($10,689) is at home vs. the slumping Dodgers and costs a lot less than Hyun-Jin Ryu ($15,137) with a reasonable chance to earn a victory, weather permitting. The Korean rookie has 20 K in three starts and has walked only three, but there is more game film on him now and the O’s have some dangerous RH bats.
Somebody has to win the CLE @ HOU game, and the Astros’ Lucas Harrell ($7,538) is a much better play than Brett Myers, whose $12,250 salary must be a joke.
The two SP, one RP strategy has its appeal. Take your pick from Aroldis Chapman ($2,980), Addison Reed ($3,029) or Sergio Romo ($3,363) depending on which team you think will win by three runs or less. Fernando Rodney ($2,098) is my hunch play, as Alex Cobb ($13,361) and Brett Anderson ($11,904) could engage in a pitcher’s duel. Grant Balfour ($2,018) would close if Oakland is ahead.