Best Bets (Hitters)
One of my colleague’s statistical methods is to isolate “red hot” bats. Using a minimum AB threshold over a certain number of days, he produces a quantitative heat ranking. Among those players, the following have favorable matchups.
Justin Upton ($11,336) gets Coors to work with and faces the very ordinary Tyler Chatwood, who was called up from Triple-A as an injury replacement. The potential is there for a big game from all the Braves bats. Freddie Freeman ($7,826) is back off the DL and Juan Francisco ($6,420) had a HR and a double last night.
Mike Napoli ($9,330) just loves facing lefties at Fenway. Oakland hurler Brett Anderson ($10,503) left his latest start with an ankle injury after just one inning, so don’t expect much. If he isn’t sharp, Napoli and the other Red Sox RH bats will take full advantage.
Nelson Cruz ($7,924) went deep off a lefty last night but we don’t care who he faces this evening. With Tommy Hanson on the bereavement list, rookie LH reliever Michael Roth is the listed starter. As a friend who happened to be the GM of a big-league team once quipped, “Sometimes you gotta go with Charlie Wholestaff.”
Adrian Beltre ($9,628) got two more hits last night and was robbed of two more. Hitting in the middle of the order with Cruz, both are locked in right now.
Live Longshots (Hitters)
Howie Kendrick ($5,424) hit two home runs last night, including the game-winner, both to straightway CF, making an impression on Dudek. “Darvish is a tough matchup, so this is a risk pick, but the price screams value to me.”
Ryan Roberts ($5,557) has made five consecutive starts for the Rays and hasn’t escaped our analyst’s notice. “Surely he’ll be in the lineup again, after he handled C.C. Sabathia so well. Andy Pettitte ($13,220) is a maestro, so this battle could go either way. In any case, the price on Roberts is irresistible.”
Russell Martin ($5,312) is on an 8-game hit streak that just might continue. “I’m not convinced Roy Halladay ($15,247) is truly his old self,” says Rob. If Martin gets the day off, other hot C include Jonathan Lucroy ($7,986) and Buster Posey ($7,701).
Players to Avoid
Here are four pitchers to stay away from at any price: Tyler Chatwood, Ted Lilly, Brett Anderson and Josh Stinson. Wait for tomorrow on Verlander.
We are also not going to overspend on Rockies hitters tonight against the crafty Hudson. Carlos Gonzalez ($13,197) and Troy Tulowitzki ($11,933) are great, but if you use an expensive SP or two, you’ll need to scrimp a little on bats.
Kent Williams is on Twitter @SheridanFantasy and be sure to follow Rob Dudek for updates when our morning picks change during the day.