The first is that the Knicks will be able to offer Smith more than the mid-level exception. The mid-level exception for the 2013-14 season has already been set at $5.15 million, so that fact alone bodes well for the Knicks.
The major question, though, is whether or not a team that has cap space this summer would value Smith enough to offer him enough to lure him away from New York. The teams who could—and there are quite a few—probably could not offer Smith a better opportunity to win a championship than the Knicks.
Teams with that cap space are closer to the draft lottery than the playoffs. Think Charlotte Bobcats, Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Hornets.
If you were Smith, would you take $40 million to play in Charlotte? Would you turn down $16 million?
That, is the (16) million dollar question.
Another question to consider in all of this is whether or not Smith would be willing to leave the comfort zone he has built in New York over the past two years.
By his own admission, Smith has grown up since he returned from China. Here, he is close to his native New Jersey and his family. He is comfortable and he is playing on a winning basketball team with familiar faces.
If the Phoenix Suns, for example, offered Smith a deal beginning at $8.5 million, it may entice him. But whether or not he would remove himself from what has been a great situation in New York remains to be seen.
The last thing to consider is the possibility Smith decides to opt in for the 2013-14 season. He will then earn just $2.9 million next season.
According to the source, that is not likely, although it should be pointed out that by doing so, Smith could become a fully vested Bird free agent with the Knicks in July 2014.
At that point, the Knicks could re-sign Smith for up to the maximum allowable salary—35 percent of the 2014-15 salary cap.
That number should be north of $20 million and would allow the Knicks to re-sign Smith for somewhere near the $10 million he is believed to be seeking.
The problem, according to the source, is that Smith realizes that his market value will probably never be higher than it currently is.
What that market value is remains to be seen, but consider that last summer, O.J. Mayo and Jamal Crawford—both comparable players in terms of stature and ability—were free agents and ended up “settling” for $4 million from the Mavericks and $5 million from the Clippers, respectively.
Big guys always get paid.
Smaller guards? Not necessarily.
So while Smith could benefit more in the long run by opting in to his final year, do not expect him to.
The last consideration is the risk of injury.
If Smith were Rajon Rondo, Kevin Love or Kobe Bryant, and was in the final year of his deal, his market value could be adversely affected. While simply “playing it out” may seem like an easy thing to do for a player performing at a high level, there is a great risk involved. And it may be one too great, even for a 28-year-old.
Certainly, a question that Knicks fans may be asking is whether Smith could opt out, sign a one- year deal as an early Bird free agent, then re-sign as a fully vested Bird free agent in July 2014. The short answer there is no.
By rule, an early Bird free agent must sign a new deal for at least two guaranteed years. So perhaps Smith and the Knicks could meet in the middle on a three-year early Bird deal, allowing Smith the ability to opt out of the third year and once again become a free agent on July 1, 2015 after earning $11.58 million combined for the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons.
At that point, Smith will be staring at his 30th birthday and will have played four years for the Knicks, having his Bird rights fully vested.
Yes, we are talking distant future here. But sometimes, being a prudent agent—and being an NBA player that is a part of the league’s middle class—requires a little foresight.
At this point, there are more questions than answers as it relates to Smith. For now, all we seem to know is that Smith has far outplayed his $2.8 million salary and is in line for a substantial raise.
The Knicks—for a change—are not necessarily in a position to simply outbid the competition.
One way or another, this will be an interesting summer for Smith. He may end up having to choose between $24 million from the Knicks or $35 million from a non-contender.
If his relationship with Mike Woodson, Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin has any effect, he will probably remain in orange and blue.
But money talks.
Moke Hamilton is a Senior NBA Columnist for SheridanHoops whose columns appear here on Tuesdays and Fridays. Follow him on Twitter: @MokeHamilton
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I find this hard to believe. Last night on the ESPN feed they quoted JR Smith saying that he is without a doubt returning to the Knicks and that he wants to play the rest of his career in New York for the team he grew up loving.
Take everything Sheridan reports with a grain of salt, i wish i could see a full track record of this guy, never known him to be right. Still, JR will opt out, and knicks will resign him.
What could you possibly disagree with that Moke wrote? His numbers are well researched (I’ve heard similar numbers for Early Bird) and he didn’t state any conclusions, but presented all sides clearly.
I think what wasn’t mentioned by Moke, is the luxury tax situation which eventually will be $3 for every $1 over the tax threshold for repeat offenders like the Knicks. Knicks might not want to commit for 4 years, in which case Phoenix would be ideal. It would be a devastating loss to the fans, once again, and there would be no way to replace JR, as Knicks only have the mini-MLE to offer a new player. Knicks would be in decline after his season, especially if they were to lose JR.
Knicks may end up Amnestying Amare in July if he isn’t going to be back to himself. Knicks would likely end up over the cap still, but at least they would be eligible for full MLE and bi-annual exception, and could avoid Luxury tax penalties.
I think once Rip Hamilton is let go, the Bulls could make a offer for him. They need a solid scorer at SG and right now the best we have is (Marco Ben and that isn’t much). Also Grizzles would be smart to offer him a solid contract after letting Bayless go. Both of these teams need a solid scorer SG either off the bench or starting.
Bulls are a luxury tax team and could only offer a full MLE of 5 million, if they Amnesty Boozer.
Memphis couldn’t offer more than the MLE.
That is why Moke didn’t mention those teams. JR would stay with Knicks rather than take a small decrease to play for another good team.
the knicks cant amnesty amare you are only allowed to do it once and they used it on Billups so they could give tyson chandler more money
fyi, knicks CAN’T amnesty STAT or anyone else for that matter since they already used their amnesty provision on Billups.
The JR Smith situation is similar to what the Nets will have with Andray Blatche next summer.
However, Blatche will have to decide this July what to do in advance. Dray’s situation is much different, because he is already guaranteed around 8 million from the Wiz for the next 2 years and the additional money he would get would be reduced via a complicated formula that few people are aware of (ref to NetsDaily). Blatche has stated he doesn’t want to see the Wiz get off the hook for what they owe him, implying he is willing to bypass free agency this summer – and accept the Vet Min or possibly a mini-MLE with an opt-out (if that is even possible with the new CBA?) $25 million over 4 years (beginning July 2014) may be attractive to Blatche, who Is very happy with Nets.
Very thorough article. Most Knicks fans are delusional and would immediately assume he will stay. However, JR impresses me as the type of person who will take the most money, especially if its more than $10 million above what the Knicks can offer him. Knicks might be contenders next year too, but not likely good enough to be a top 4 NBA team. Without Smith, Knicks could be about a 4 seed next year.
Shut up faggot.