Best Bets (Hitters)
There are many ways to select hitters. Rob calls one the Reflective Principle; isolate the pitchers you expect to fare poorly and consider the hitters facing them. Today he is focused on BOS vs. Humber, LAD vs. Jeremy Hefner ($4,086) and TEX against Minnesota’s Vance Worley ($7,649).
“Among Red Sox hitters, lefty bats David Ortiz (9,476), Shane Victorino ($8,309) and Jacoby Ellsbury ($11,064) are the obvious choices, but they come at a price. Also be aware that Big Papi limped to the dugout grimacing after scoring a run yesterday and the Flyin’ Hawaiian has a tender back. The old reliable, Dustin Pedroia ($8,878) doesn’t need the platoon advantage.”
The Rangers pounded the Angels’ B-team corps of relief pitchers last night for nine runs in the fourth inning. “If not for travelling to Minnesota, I would take a bunch of them without reservations. Adrian Beltre ($9,710) is still a solid play and consider lefty bats David Murphy ($7,293) and A.J. Pierzynski ($8,676).”
Although the Dodgers just lost a tough one in ten innings, Matt Kemp ($7,964) is finally coming around. “He looks more like his old self in the outfield, tracking balls well, and hit an opposite field home run. At this salary, he’s worth a play.”
Live Longshots (Hitters)
One possible bargain LH bat is Rangers 1B Mitch Moreland ($6,788), but an entire team is priced even lower.
The Marlins have scored just 54 runs and are 5-16. To paraphrase one of many great lines from Bull Durham, “How did they ever win five?” They do have a chance today against Edwin Jackson ($13,168) and we both find ourselves tempted. Catcher Rob Brantley ($5,113) and 1B Greg Dobbs ($5,381) are lefty swingers.
Eric Hosmer ($5,104) might go 0-for-4 against Verlander, but last night against the similar Scherzer, had two walks, a double and a sac fly for a 1.000 OBP.
Players to Avoid
James Shields ($15,627) is an excellent pitcher, but could be in for a hard-luck season, with two losses and a no-decision so far. In addition to shutting down the mighty Tigers bats, he needs his teammates to score off Verlander today to earn a W.
Our guest expert always considers variance. “No pitcher has a greater range of possible outcome than Chris Sale ($15,736) who could destroy the Rays or get blasted by them, with almost equal probability. The risk is just too great for me at that price; the Rays will sit most of their LH bats and the righties should do reasonably well.”
Kent Williams is on Twitter @SheridanFantasy and be sure to follow Rob Dudek for updates when our morning picks change during the day.