Bernucca: Future murky for Lakers, biggest underachievers in NBA history

The only team that even comes close is the 1978 Philadelphia 76ers, whose star-studded roster included Julius Erving, George McGinnis, Doug Collins, Lloyd Free, Darryl Dawkins and Steve Mix. They were coming off a loss in the Finals, chose an ill-fated ad campaign with the phrase “We Owe You One,” changed coaches after a 2-4 start, also played in bipolar fits and starts and lost in the Eastern Conference finals to a Washington Bullets team that won just 44 games.

However, among all that talent was one Hall of Famer, not four. And their 55 wins were five more than the previous season. And they did sweep the New York Knicks by a combined 75 points in the first round. And they did lose to the eventual NBA champions.

Now that their place in history is secure, let’s look at the future of the Lakers.

• Kupchak has said that coach Mike D’Antoni will return, which spares him the embarrassment of consecutive poor choices. But that decision is far from concrete. Mike Brown’s hiring in Cleveland reduces what he is owed by the Lakers, who could put that savings toward paying off D’Antoni while bringing in someone else. And what if Howard – who has a track record of pushing coaches out the door – goes to Kupchak and says, “Him or me”?

• Kupchak also has dismissed the ridiculous idea of using the amnesty clause on Kobe Bryant, who may not play again until the 2014-15 season, which is after his current contract expires. From a financial standpoint, it makes sense because the removal of Bryant’s $30.4 million salary reduces the team’s tax burden from nearly $90 million to almost zero. But from a strategic standpoint, it makes no sense because players released through the amnesty clause become available other teams, and even a one-legged, 34-year-old Bryant would touch off a bidding war that would shame the ABA. 

• There also has been some talk of using the amnesty clause on Pau Gasol, who has one year and $19.3 million left on his deal. But his banishment would leave the Lakers without an insurance policy for Howard’s possible departure, Bryant’s favorite teammate and still in tax territory, which means they cannot use the mid-level exception, bi-annual exception or participate in sign-and-trades. A better option would be to trade Gasol, who despite some serious mileage is still one of the game’s most skilled big men and whose expiring deal would be attractive to a team looking to be a player in the summer of 2014, when the pool could include Luol Deng, Paul George, Larry Sanders, Carmelo Anthony, Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and The Heatles. In any deal for Gasol, the Lakers should not target a big name with a big price tag but rather smaller pieces that create depth and a draft pick or two to replenish the five they owe over the next five years.

• Kupchak could also use the stretch provision on Nash, whose effectiveness is directly correlative to how much the ball is in his hands – which isn’t enough in this group – and appears to be breaking down beyond repair. But spacing Nash’s remaining $19 million over five years turns the annual hit into less than $4 million, which is chump change that barely dents the tax hit and would leave the Lakers without an established point guard – and little means of adding one.

• What this all comes down to is Howard. He has said he will explore free agency, which means the circus will be back in town in July. Teams like Dallas, Houston and Atlanta will feel like they have a puncher’s chance of landing him and could ultimately put Kupchak over a barrel in kowtowing to the ancillary demands of a petulant goofball, such as picking the coach, having a say in trades, promotional plans, etc. Howard did have a formal introduction to his basketball mortality with his injury issues over the last year, and Kupchak does hold the hole card of being able to offer Howard about $118 million over five years while rival teams can offer “only” about $88 million over four. But that $30 million difference is mitigated by Proposition 30, a ballot item that would raise state income tax on all Californians making at least $1 million by 3 percent to 13.3 percent, while Howard would pay no state income tax playing for Dallas or Houston. A four-year deal would mean Howard would be 32 rather than 33 when he again is a free agent. And the rosters in Atlanta, Houston and Dallas are younger and deeper than in Los Angeles.

The best moves Kupchak can make are (a) land Howard at any cost, including D’Antoni; (b) find a pennies-on-the-dollar taker for Gasol and get back multiple pieces that add depth and flexibility; and (c) continue to target the summer of 2014 as the better opportunity for a more meaningful overhaul.

It won’t be easy. But it never is with underachieving teams.

TRIVIA: Who is the all-time leader in playoff double-doubles? Answer below.