Stephen Curry (ankle and hamstring) and Bogut (ankle) have combined to take three cortisone shots in the first round, and how much their respective injuries have healed since Thursday will play a major role, given that they are two of the most important pieces for the Warriors. Curry has proven to be a quick healer this season. Bogut nearly missed Game 6 before taking the pain-killing injection, which is not encouraging news.
David Lee, who is supposed to miss the remainder of the season with a torn hip flexor, is not expected to make an impact in this series despite making a cameo appearance in the final game of the first round. Most feel that missing him is a huge disadvantage for the Warriors, but that proved not to be the case in the first round. His scoring and rebounding will be missed, but the general defense of the team got so much better with him off the floor that the two seemingly canceled each other out. With him on the floor, the Warriors are susceptible to this kind of defense, something they can’t afford to deal with this deep into the season.
4. The other guys:
Manu Ginobili and Jarrett Jack are obviously the x-factors off the bench as playmakers for their respective teams. Ginobili would seem to have the edge as the sixth man in most circumstances and is a much smarter player in general, but consider this: Jack (nicknamed the “Spurs Killer” by play-by-play analyst Sean Elliott) has averaged 17.5 points on 50 percent shooting and 9.8 assists against the Spurs this season. That kind of production is not to be taken lightly.
Another player that played exceptionally well against the Spurs in the regular season is Carl Landry, who averaged 13 points on an absurd 71 percent shooting. Other than Duncan, who should be matched up against Bogut, there doesn’t appear to be any player that can effectively guard Landry. His weakness is passing out of double-teams, so sending a little help will go a long way in throwing off his rhythm.
Rookie Harrison Barnes transformed into an impact player in the first round after Lee’s injury. How well he plays in this series will largely depend on who’s guarding him, meaning he should hope that Leonard will stay on Thompson. Leonard has the ability to effectively guard just about anyone on the Warriors (excluding Bogut and Landry), so he will take turns guarding whoever is playing well on any given night.
Draymond Green was shockingly good in the first round on both ends of the floor, but will look to have a much tougher time against a smarter defensive team that likely won’t leave him as much room to work with.
5. Defensive strategy against Curry:
How will the Spurs guard Curry in the pick-and-roll? In the regular season, Danny Green often guarded Curry, but he wasn’t always successful in getting around screens (especially when Bogut was the screener) which often put Duncan on an island with Curry. In other words, the defense of the Spurs could face some of the same dilemmas the Nuggets faced: will they try to blitz the screen and make him get rid of the ball, or will they switch on the play? Duncan actually showed the ability to stay in front of Curry in those situations, but that was before the point guard stepped up his play a notch. Albeit briefly, it’s worth noting that Steve Nash had high-quality looks at the basket on PnR plays in the first round against the Spurs.
In all likelihood, they will force Curry off the 3-point line as much as possible and make him shoot mid-range jump shots or drive into the paint. That would be the smart thing to do, since he is much more dangerous when he is further from the basket. One of the key philosophies of Popovich’s defense is to stay home on 3-point shooters even if it means allowing penetration of the guard and letting him get his. That much is evident when you see this stat: Golden State – the best 3-point shooting team in the league – shot just 31 percent from long range in the first three games against San Antonio this season. Thompson never found himself open against Leonard and shot 35.7 percent from the field in those games.
The problem begins if Curry gets hot from the 3-point line, and the problem with that statement for Popovich is that Curry is almost always “hot” from there. He will have less quality looks against the Spurs’ defense, but has the ability to create and make difficult shots on his own. If Curry starts hitting 25-footers with a hand in his face, which he did against some combination of Green and Gary Neal in their final meeting in the regular season for seven 3-pointers, even Popovich will have no choice but to blitz and trap him. When that happens is when the Spurs will have to overcome the obstacle of having to deal with open shooters.
PREDICTIONS:
SCHAYES: Spurs in 5.
ANDY KAMENETZKY: Spurs in 6.
BRIAN KAMENETZKY: Spurs in 5.
OTHER PREVIEWS