Uvo, take me back to 2011. (Sorry, I’ve been watching too many Blake Griffin commercials.)
Just two years ago, the eighth-seeded Grizzlies stunned the top-seeded Spurs in the first round of the playoffs, sending San Antonio back to its rocking chairs a little bit earlier than anyone expected.
Memphis used a breakout performance by Zach Randolph (31 points, 11 boards in Game 6) to close out the Spurs, then took the Thunder to seven games before bowing out in the West semifinals.
Back then, analysts like Stephen A. Smith used unnecessary big words to postulate that we were seeing the end of the great San Antonio dynasty. How erroneous those assertions were.
The Spurs are back in the Western Conference finals for the second straight season, and this time, they’re out for revenge. The up-and-coming Grizzlies benefited from Russell Westbrook’s injury and are now within shouting distance of the NBA Finals, something that Memphis fans would have thought impossible in 2011.
Let’s take a look at five key factors that could swing this series:
1. The point guard factor. Mike Conley had it easy going up against Mr. May, Reggie Jackson, instead of Russell Westbrook in the last round. Now, he will have to contend with Tony Parker.
Conley averaged 18 points and 6.8 assists in the conference semifinals, but his production should drop off a bit against Parker. If Conley is able to get the best of the wily vet, the Grizzlies will have a great chance of winning the series.
2. The experience factor. The Spurs have been here before. And before that. And before that. They have reached the Western Conference finals for the eighth time in the Tim Duncan era and are 4-3 in their previous seven appearances. However, they have lost their last two trips – to Oklahoma City last year and to the Lakers in 2008.
Duncan, Paker and Manu Ginobili will have a huge experience advantage, but the biggest edge may be having the salty Gregg Popovich on the sidelines. Pop’s inbounds play at the end of Game 1 against Golden State had the Warriors running into themselves and basically won the Spurs the game.
This is the first trip to the conference finals for the Grizzlies. Among their players, Tony Allen, Keyon Dooling and Tayshaun Prince have been at least this far.
3. The small market champion factor. Conspiracy theorists will point to the fact that the Lakers have won the West a whopping 31 times, while no one else in the conference has reached the NBA Finals more than four times.
There is usually a team from a big market in this spot, but for the second straight year, two Midwestern, small-market teams will compete for a place on the sport’s grandest stage. This is great for the NBA, even though it may not be great for ratings. Owners pushed hard for more parity in the last NBA lockout, and we’re seeing the fruit of their labor (relations).
The Spurs play in the 37th-largest market in the country and 27th in the NBA. The Grizzlies are even smaller, playing in the 49th-largest market in the country and 29th in the NBA.
FYI, San Antonio’s appearances in the 2003, 2005 and 2007 Finals are the three-lowest rated Finals in NBA history.
4. The frontcourt factor. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph of Memphis are two of the best big men in the game, and proved their superiority in the semifinals against Oklahoma City, averaging a combined 37 points and 18 rebounds per game.
Will they be able to perform at the same level against Duncan and Tiago Splitter? Randolph was the difference in this matchup in 2011, and he closed out the Thunder by going for 28 and 14. If the Spurs can’t find a way to slow him down, they’re going to have a tough time winning this series.
5. The Grizzlies’ offense factor. A lot of analysts cringed when Memphis shipped leading scorer Rudy Gay to Toronto for some extra napkins and a Slurpee machine. But the move has worked out brilliantly so far.
The offense hasn’t been bogged down by Gay’s desire to go 1-on-1, and Memphis has been better with defensive demon Tony Allen on the floor more often. Still, offense has been hard to come by at times for the Grizzlies, and that’s not exactly a recipe for success against the Spurs, who are by far the best offensive team remaining in the postseason.
The Grizzlies may need some production from players such as Prince and Jerryd Bayless in order to put up enough points to win.
PREDICTIONS:
SCHAYES: Spurs in 5.
ANDY KAMENETZKY: Grizzlies in 6.
BRIAN KAMENETZKY: Spurs in 5.
