The money hit that Howard would take by signing elsewhere is considerable. There is no getting around that; the new CBA makes it almost financially suicidal to go elsewhere. Unless . . . the money you’d make 
elsewhere is still pretty good, the team you’d be going to is pretty good and getting better (and much better than the one you’re leaving) and the chances are pretty-to-very good that you will get back a lot of what you’re giving up with a new deal at the age of 32.
Which leads to me the inescapable conclusion that Howard has to sign with Houston. It makes all the sense in the world for so many reasons.
Have you seen their roster? James Harden, 24 in August. Jeremy Lin, 25 in August. Chandler Parsons, 25 in October. Omer Asik, 27 in July. Patrick Beverley, 25 in July. Thomas Robinson, 23 in March. All of those players are better than anyone on the Lakers’ roster not named Kobe, Pau or Steve.
Again, if you’re Howard, where do you want to spend the next four years of your career? With all the uncertainty in Los Angeles? Or with a young, exciting team going forward?
There’s also the coaching issue. I am utterly and completely convinced that Kevin McHale was hired to coach the Rockets for this very purpose – to be the lure that lands Howard. Think about it. Why would the Rockets have hired him otherwise? It’s not like he had dazzling coaching credentials. But the ever-forward-looking Daryl Morey, Houston’s general manager, has been lusting after Howard for a while, and bringing in McHale to land and eventually tutor Howard is pure genius.
It worked before. McHale was in Minnesota in 1995 when a high schooler named Kevin Garnett joined the Timberwolves. McHale worked tirelessly with the kid, and Garnett seems to have turned out all right. Howard is much farther along, obviously, but not that farther along where he couldn’t be helped by the 
Master of The Drop Step.
Yes, Dallas will get into the bidding as well, but the Mavericks offer … what, exactly? An aging Dirk Nowitzki and … um …. who else? Again, there is nothing close to what the Rockets can offer in terms of an attractive team, instructive coach and huge upside. Same with Atlanta.
There’s a reason Howard hasn’t said he is committed to the Lakers. It’s because he isn’t. We went through the same thing two years ago with LeBron James in Cleveland. He made all the coy statements about staying and then left the Cavaliers hanging. He’s in an inarguably better place now.
Howard will be too when he signs with Houston and makes the Rockets an immediate contender in the West. Forget the Lakers.
To quote the wonderful Jodi Deitz in Saturday Night Live’s “Bronx Beat,” the chances of him staying put are “0.00 percent.”
Peter May is the only writer who covered the final NBA games played by Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan. He has covered the league for three decades for The Hartford Courant and The Boston Globe and has written three books on the Boston Celtics. His work also appears in The New York Times. You can follow him on Twitter.
Lakers really do need Jennie Buss to take over. It’s NOT all about Phil. But Mike D should not be coach either. Next summer Lakers have a chance with all the cap being cleared. BUT they need Jennie Buss to take over before then, or no 1 will come. This is NOT the Lakers of old. Jim Buss is running that team into the ground. I don’t like the Lakers. But I do think Jennie Buss would do a GREAT job, and deserves the chance.
Great article by Bill Simmons of ESPN.com. He says the Rockets are the best place for Dwight, and he’s probably right. The funny thing is that is the only part that Rockets fans will pay attention to. The rest of the article is about how Dwight has peaked already and that he isn’t worth what he will be paid. I really hope the Lakers trade him and get a few decent pieces for him and then look forward to next offseason to retool, even if they don’t win big this year. Lakers don’t want to be into Dwight for $22 million a year for the next 5 years. GO AWAY DWIGHT!
First of all Lakers can’t trade a free agent unless wants to do a sign & trade. He won’t because with new CBA he still won’t get 5 years in sign & trade. Also he won’t want Rockets or w.e team he goes to losing other players.
As for Dwight not being worth the money you are flat out crazy. Laker fans are so upset someone will FINALLY say no to the Lakers that they can’t admit someone worth it can actually say no even with more money on the table to leave LA.
Grow up Lakers fans, and stop being a bunch of baby’s. You can’t always be good. Deal with a rebuild like everyone else has to.
excellent…..clearest analysis of the dwightmare Ive read. Grantland has a nice piece too, though. Its obvious he wont sign with the Lakers. And if I were howard I wouldnt either. But…..Howard isnt improving, in fact, he’s probably peaked. He is still a top three center in the league, but he’s not ever going to be as good as he was four and five years ago. He hates D’Antoni and probably hates Kobe, too The Jimm Buss lakers were very arrogant….assuming they could just throw money around and buy a title. They got a bunch of guys who dont fit and who are VERY old. Nash needs to retire, and might. Metta world whatever is way past his prime, and Pau while still a decent player…better than decent, is also on the downside of his career. Whats left? Houston has a very promising roster. Atlanta has Horeford and little else. Dallas has nothing but an over the hill Dirk. Cuban was just as arrogant and short sighted as Buss.
Nash said he won’t retire do people not read news? Jim Buss is a idiot Jeannie Buss should be running things.
ATL is actually a great fit if he can convince CP3 to go there with him team with Horford. Hope that doesn’t happen and CP3 stays with Clippers.
Mark Cuban is great. All owners will be a little arrogant they got where they are that way,
Guess Mark Cuban’s idea that the Lakers might amnesty Kobe doesn’t seem so far-fetched now. I’ve had a ruptured Achilles and Kobe will have a hard time coming back from it.
LOL YOU are not Kobe, and NOT a pro athlete I assume? FOR A REASON
Lakers fans must live and breath in L.A. absent a brain. The Lakers are ALREADY over the cap! Hello. That’s why they have no choice but to hold on to Howard. I wouldn’t be surprise if they literally start begging him to stay.
I don’t know the numbers specifically but I know the Lakers are over the cap. Even if Howard stays, somebody still has to go. If not, the team stay the same and that’s going nowhere.
The delusionalism of the Lakers is thinking Howard wants to start-over again. The Lakers entertaining this idea of making this Howard’s Team when Kobe retires but you guys are not listening to the man. He did that with Orlando. When he wanted out of Orlando, he wanted to “team up” with a star player so he wouldn’t have to shoulder a team night in, night out —- essentially what he’d have to do if and when Kobe retires.
Why go to through a rebuilding at 27, and coming off a major surgery when he can team up with some young guns like the Rockets, with a bonafide star player in Harden? Plus, a no state tax state like Texas, 4th largest city, a mid-size market coupled with the China market….(thanks to Yao Ming and Jermey Lin), these incentives outweights anything L.A. has to offer including the weather. We get “summer weather” even during the winter!
It’s a no-brainer for Howard to play for the Rockets. Not to mention, Hakeem would be on-board to work with Howard.
I agree he should and will go to Rockets. BUT Lakers will have Kobe + Gasol + EVERY1 outside of Nash coming of the books next summer 2014 when a bunch of stars can be available to team with Dwight. And if they trade Nash who will be a expiring contract then possible they can have enough for 2 MAX players. The thing is does he want to RISK it not working out.
People keep saying D12 will Loose endorsements coming to Houston TX The 4th largest city in the nation 😉 Me Laughing..This is not Indiana Or Cleveland ..Alot Of Ppl dont know this But Houston TX is the #1 city for job growth & No State Taxes Still wondering what im talking about?.. Houston Thrives off oil&Gas OTC convention was just held here in which ppl all over the world came2see estimated90,000 Ppl &Not to mention the Asian community which is bigger then UsA bball fans which keeps thriving from Yao&Linsainty inwhich rockets preseason Games This Year will be held in Twain..&Also Houston Just received the 2017 Superbowl Which Will Bring in more $$..Still not sold Comparison of teams hold on I had a chuckle:) ! Lakers are N rebuilding Mode&stuck w/no cap space to improve nobody wants pau&kobes contract they dont resmeble their game now just like amares contract for knicks not the same playersOLD.Daryl Morey has great Young Talent2Compliment D12 also We Have A Harden the TheTop5player N the league this YR
Houston is the no. 1 city for job growth and you’re getting a Super Bowl in 4 years? You don’t say. Well, clearly that will appeal to Dwight Howard. Thanks for the 2,000 word commercial from the Houston Chamber of Commerce. What does LA have? Oh right, 16 championships, 1000’s of miles of coastline, and a packed arena every night full of celebrities and some of the world’s most influential power players sitting court side who can guarantee Dwight Howard anything he wants. You really think the Lakers are going to be in rebuilding mode very long? Here’s a couple of words for you: Jerry West Elgin Baylor Wilt Chamberlain Kareem Abdul Jabbar Magic Johnson Shaquille O’neal Kobe Bryant Paul Gasol Dwight Howard. Notice a pattern? The Lakers don’t rebuild. They reload. Enjoy your cement paradise.
this isnt about the appeal of california….Im from southern cal, but the Lakers are still stuck. They simply have no way to restock. Pau isnt tim duncan. Sorry. His knees are bad already. History and movie stars courtside isnt going to win games. It didnt this year did it?
No championship this year for LA? Says the rockets fan who hasn’t won a championship in nearly 20 years. Who hasn’t reached anywhere even near the finals in 20 years. Who only won those two championships because MJ retired. Houston is sooo desperate for a star. It is funny. Houston…Please take Dwight! Please! Let him suck up $22 million of your salary cap for the next 5 years just so he can be a little bitch there like he has been everywhere else. So he can suck in the post, bobble the ball and turn it over 4-5 times a game, clank free throws and be a baby when he doesn’t get the ball enough. And then your whole salary cap is done for 5 years. PLEASE take him from the Lakers! Careful what you wish for Houston fans! Everyone thinks the Lakers are screwed. They have one year remaining with this salary cap issue and then they can do anything they want. They will reload and be right back on contention. Good luck Houston and thanks in advance if you do get Dwight!
Hey smart ass I agree he should and will go to Rockets. BUT learn cap situation for Lakers if your going to talk out of your ***. I don’t like the Lakers I am a Sixers + Clippers fan BUT Lakers will have CRAZY cap next summer 2014 when Kobe, Pau, and every1 not named Nash expires. They can trade Nash at that point since he will be a expiring. So they for sure can offer 1 max, and by trading Nash will be able to offer 2 max contracts to pair with Dwight. 2014 is also when Melo, Lebron ect…….can all opt out need I say more?
So funny. Do you honestly think the Lakers won’t be able to lure anyone to them after next season? Do you not think Pau and Kobe can sign and play another few years after next season at a much discounted rate a la Tim Duncan? Duncan is 37 and still playing great. And he has the same kind of game Pau has, but Pau is only 32. But saying that, The Lakers shouldn’t even want Dwight. Do you want to spend $22 mil a year on a guy who can’t play well in the post, handle the ball, hold onto the ball in a crowd, make free throws, pick ans roll any further than 10 ft from the basket? All while being a malcontent who is never happy and is a piss poor leader. No thanks. Houston can have him. I will take Pau at center as the Spurs have done with Duncan at a discount rate. Team him with Kobe (discount), and add two players like Paul George, Danny Granger or Luol Deng to play the 3 and 4 and a guy like Kyle Lowry at PG. And that is if they can’t get someone like Lebron or Carmelo to come. Lakers will be fine. They aren’t the Chicago Bulls of 98 with Jerry Krause thinking he was bigger then MJ. Good riddance Dwight!
You don’t seem to know the CBA. Lakers will be over the luxury tax even without Howard.
Kobe won’t be the same if he tries to come back early (less than 1 year) from his surgery and likely never will be the same. Lakers may Amnesty Artest just to get under the luxury tax for 1 year. They would have to be extremely lucky to make the playoffs next season.
After that, do you know what the cap hold will be on Kobe with his 30 million salary. Nash is likely to retire before his 3rd year. And if Lakers going into start all over mode, ala Miami when they got the big 3, good luck. Kobe won’t be the same, if he decides not to retire.
I’m not talking about this year. This year they are screwed if Dwight leaves, although it could be addition by subtraction. That would Pau back at the 5 and give Jordan Hill more time on the court. But I am talking about after this season in the comment above. If Nash retires, the Lakers will have $60 million to sign whoever they want. If it worked for Miami to get stars there, why wouldn’t it work for the best organization in professional sports? Kobe will be back to form in 18 months, even if at only 75%, he would still be a top 5 SG in the league. Add Pau in at $8 mil with Kobe at $10 mil. You still have $40 mil left. The guys listed above: Paul George ($12mil), Granger ($10mil), Deng ($10mil), Lowry ($7mil). If you signed two of those guys along with Pau and Kobe, you would still have $10-12mil to fill out the roster just to be up to the cap. Bring back Meeks, Hill, Clark or a few role players and we are good to go for another few years. Time those out with Kevin Love opt out and bring him in later if possible. Those are just a few options. Don’t think the Lakers aren’t going to put this back together within a year of having cap space. You would just be another Laker hater foolishly hoping for their demise.
You haven’t even used all the arguments why Howard will go to Houston. He already said through his camp, that Asik is the type of 7 footer who he’d like to be playing alongside him (no need to trade him).
On Tuesday even Phil Jackson gave Howard his blessing to go to Houston.
The finances are not so bad compared to LA, when you consider taxes and that even Yao Ming did quite well in endorsements from Houston – not to mention all the eyes watching Howard from his favorite country of China.
Howard will not be happy in LA with all the pressure on him, short of winning championships, before Shaq will acknowledge him.
I’d like to be a fly on the wall when Kobe tries to spend time with Dwight soon, in order to influence his decision. I think only Jennie Buss taking over the Lakers and having PJax coach the team, could save Howard.