3. Miami somehow needs to control the boards: Indiana has pretty much dominated the backboards for the entire series. The Heat have no size to counter 7-2 giant Roy Hibbert. Indiana outrebounded Miami, 49-30, in Game 4. Perimeter shooter Ray Allen led the Heat with seven boards. Hibbert and David West are combining for 20.5 rebounds a game. If you throw in Stephenson, the Pacers are getting 27 rebounds from just three starters.
The Pacers are also dismantling the Heat in offensive rebounds as well. Hibbert had a field day Tuesday night, and without any help in the paint to stop him, I expect the same outcome.
Miami somehow needs to dominate the boards – or at least battle Indiana to a standstill – to have a chance. Bosh has been a non-factor, averaging below three rebounds per game. The passivity of Bosh has allowed West and Hibbert to bully him down low.
Simpy put, if Erik Spoelstra thinks Bosh is Miami’s long-term option at center, he will need to bulk up a ton this offseason.
This means that Chris “Birdman” Andersen, Udonis Haslem and James will need to be even more active on the glass to stop Hibbert and West from corralling rebound after rebound. Having a bigger rotation against Indiana could do the trick for Miami.
4. Keep feeding Roy Hibbert: As we have seen through the first four games, Miami cannot stop Hibbert, who is averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds this series. That is an All-NBA stat line.
Having Hibbert post up Bosh, Andersen or Haslem creates a massive mismatch. Hibbert can easily hit hook shots over Miami’s big men, as he has done the first four games. If Vogel keeps telling George Hill to lob passes inside to Hibbert, then Indiana has a pretty good chance of keeping things close.
Simply put, Miami will not be able to stop Hibbert if it plays single coverage with the players it has used. Expect more of the same from Hibbert, something along the lines of 25 points and 10 rebounds.
Ray Allen and Shane Battier have to find their strokes: Through the first four games, Allen and Battier are a combine 5-of-30 from 3-point range. That trend has to come to a halt for Miami.
Miami’s perimeter threat actually has to produce. Having James drive and kick to Allen or Battier would be lethal for the Heat, but they just are not making their shots.
The length of Indiana’s wing defenders is obviously bothering both shooters. Getting a good 10 3-pointers from this duo will help Miami keep up with Indiana’s surprisingly efficient offense. Bosh has been the true marksman from downtown, shooting 42 percent from the arc.
Battier and Allen could get going on dribble penetration setups from James and Wade. That should free up more space for them to get comfortable and make shots. The Heat have to be terrific from the perimeter. Making these shots opens room for James and Wade to drive with limited help from Indiana due to the extra attention now paid to the perimeter.
If the shots are not falling for Allen and Battier, it could once again put the pressure back on James to carry Miami to victory.
Evan Sidery is an aspiring journalist from Indianapolis whose work has appeared in several Pacers blogs. You can follow him on Twitter.