Five Key Factors for Game 6 of Pacers-Heat

Miami took back momentum in the Eastern Conference Finals with a 90-79 victory over Indiana on Thursday night. LeBron James looked more like Michael Jordan with his 30 point performance, 16 of it in the third quarter. (Should we be comparing them yet? Click for Chris Sheridan’s podcast on that subject.)

Now, the series is back in Indianapolis for Game 6. The Pacers’ backs are against the wall. Win or go home.

Below are the keys to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

With Chris Andersen suspended, who takes his place for Miami: Last night, the NBA announced that Chris “Birdman” Andersen would be suspended for his blindside hit and shove on Tyler Hansbrough.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVHPj5J-Jv4]

Initially the referees gave double technicals to Hansbrough and Andersen, but the technical to Hansbrough was rescinded after further review. Surprisingly, Andersen was somehow not given an ejection for his antics Thursday night. He only received a flagrant 1 before further review.

Justice was served eventually served, though, in a postseason that has been relatively free of Stu Jackson interventions.

Now with Andersen not being on the court for Game 6, who takes his spot in the second unit? Enter in little-used and almost forgotten Joel Anthony.

Anthony is a good setter on pick-and-r0lls, opening up bigger lanes for guys like LeBron to drive through to the basket. He will also bring some shot-blocking and hustle to the Heat’s second unit, what Birdman has already shown and done so much since replacing Anthony in the rotation.

Anthony has not played more than 10 minutes or more in a game for over a month now. Expect him to be rusty and jittery when he first comes in to take on Roy Hibbert or Ian Mahinmi. Both Pacers big men have a massive advantage over Anthony, even Mahinmi.

If Anthony does not provide some sort of spark off the bench, it will be hard for Miami to close out Indiana. He needs to be the Heat’s energy guy somehow. Maybe even fouling out and committing six hard fouls on Hibbert could spice things up positively for the Heat. But Anthony’s increased role for a crucial game will be an interesting storyline to watch tonight.

Pacers need help from the backcourt: George Hill and Lance Stephenson both had the worst playoff game of their careers Thursday. Hill was 0-for-4 with 1 point, while Stephenson was 2-for-7 with 4 points. Only getting 5 points from your starting backcourt will not get it done against Miami.

The duo of Hill and Stephenson combine to only score 14 points in each of their three losses this series. In Indiana’s two wins, they combine to score 34 points. So the Pacers’ backcourt truly holds is a key to sending this series to a Game 7 on Monday night.

Looking at how the backcourt duo for Indiana was effective in Games 2 and 4, they were aggressive and limited damage on the defensive end against Miami.

Hill utilizes the pick-and-roll well and fades out to the 3-point line when he is not involved in it. Either way, Hill usually ends up getting involved heavily from mid-range or behind the arc. Stephenson is a freight train when taking the ball to the bucket in transition. Miami can not stop that if Stephenson gets more chances of doing that tonight. That is one of the main recipes for Lance’s success in their wins against the Heat.

If both players in Indiana’s starting backcourt get going tonight, expect the Pacers to force a Game 7. If they do not show up and produce duds like they did in Game 5, expect the Heat to celebrate an NBA finals berth.

Can Dwyane Wade score 20 points: Dwyane Wade has not reached 20 points in the playoffs since Game 2 against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round (12 games). This is by far the longest streak of Wade’s career in which he has not broken the 20-point plateau. If Miami wants to celebrate tonight, Wade might need to end this streak.

D-Wade has been hampered by bone bruises in his right knee during Miami’s playoff run. You can easily see Wade does not have his explosiveness from the regular season.

When we first saw the “Big 3” come together in the Summer of 2010, we were debating who the star of the team would be. Now we know this is easily LeBron James’ team. During this round, it has become Cleveland Cavaliers 2.0. LeBron seems to be surrounded by role players, not stars.

LeBron needs some help from Wade, Bosh, or both (lightning can’t strike three times with Udonis Haslem, can it?).

Pacers have to limit turnovers: During this series, one of the key factors to defeat the Heat was limiting turnovers. In Indiana’s losses, they have not shown the ability to do that. In Game 5, the Pacers committed 18 turnovers. This was a back-breaker for Indiana’s chances to steal the game in Miami.

During their playoff run, Indiana is 1-6 when they turn the ball over 17 times or more.

Game 6, the Pacers will need their guards to take care of the basketball. No overthrows or slow lobs down into the post. They have to be smooth, crisp passes to not give Miami a chance on a fast break. Playing at a slower pace to dictate the game should also help out Indiana’s high turnover rate. They can not afford to play at Miami’s speed.

Playing with ballhandlers like Hill, Stephenson, and D.J. Augustin does not help their cause either. Indiana has not had a true, pass-first point guard since Mark Jackson. Yes, it has been that long.

The Pacers will not need Hill, Stephenson, or Augustin to become Jackson, but one of them will have to become something just below it to limit their turnovers and force an all-or-nothing Game 7.

Erik Spoelstra has to keep running Miami’s bread-and-butter play, HORNS: As seen during the third quarter of Game 5, LeBron took over scoring 16 points. He even outscored the Pacers 16-13 during the quarter. Miami’s third quarter, outscoring Indiana 30-13, turned the tide and led them to a win.

One set for Miami led their furious third quarter run, and it was a play called HORNS. It is when LeBron starts off about 20 feet away (the high-post) from the basket and players run sets to open lanes and shots for him. If he is not open, James can pass the ball off to a wide-open shooter from the 3-point line due to the extra attention on him.

Here are a few examples of Miami’s HORNS set that led them to a big third quarter during Game 5.

Miami starts off by having LeBron right outside on the high-post. Then, he gets the ball on Paul George and waits for Udonis Haslem to come over and set a quick ball-screen. Haslem then comes over to screen-off George, which creates a wide-open shot for LeBron.

Again, Miami goes back to HORNS after tying the score. Wade throws it once again to LeBron on the high-post against George. James then steps out and throws in to Wade, who is posting up Stephenson. George for some reason helps Stephenson and double-teams Wade. Dwyane throws it right back out to a wide-open LeBron, who drives straight to the basket. As you notice in the fifth screenshot, all of the Pacers’ eyes are on LeBron while he drives to the basket. All of the sudden, he kicks it out to a wide-open Mario Chalmers who hits a three-point shot to take the 56-53 lead over the Pacers.

For the third straight possesion, Miami goes right back to HORNS. They have LeBron on an island with George, but then they add a new wrinkle in. Wade comes on the same side of the court as James and screens for Mario Chalmers. Dwyane then gets the ball back and throws it over to LeBron, who is posting up Stephenson. An easy mismatch for Miami leads to James simply giving a quick head-fake and pulls up right over Stephenson for the easy jumper.

If Erik Spoelstra continues to run HORNS against Indiana, this time all game, they should be celebrating a spot in the Finals by the end of the night. Miami has run this play sporadically during this series, but not consistently.

The Heat coaching staff has to run HORNS to death against the Pacers, because Indiana simply can not stop this offensive set.