-Will CJ Leslie (SF) be drafted in the First Round? Yes (+300)/No (-400)
-Who will be drafted first? Michael Carter-Williams (PG) (-113) or CJ McCollum (PG/SG) (-117)
-Who will be drafted first? Gorgui Dieng (C) (+108) or Kelly Olynyk (C) (-138)
-Will Tim Hardaway Jr (SG) be drafted in the First Round? Yes (-450)/No (+325)
-Will Reggie Bullock (SF) be drafted in the First Round? Yes (-163)/No (+133)
-Cody Zeller’s draft position…Over 10.5 (-115)/Under 10.5 (-115)
-Will Peyton Siva (PG) be drafted in the NBA Draft? Yes (-125)/No (-105)
Let’s start with the first prop on CJ Leslie… All four of the mock drafts I previewed above does not put Leslie anywhere near the first round. Chad Ford’s “Big Board” puts Leslie as the 41st ranked player in the draft, which would put him 11 picks past the first round. If you take a look at Draft Express, they put Leslie as the 37th pick in the draft to the Detroit Pistons. Although the odds on Leslie to not go in the first round is pretty steep, especially for a proposition bet…it is probably a good bet overall, wager $400 to win $100 (or $500 total back).
Basing results on the four mock drafts above as well as Chad Ford’s “Big Board” which ranks the top 100 prospects in the country not based on needs and which teams will take them, but overall talent from scouting, here are the averages and ranks of a few of the prop. bets above:
-Who will be drafted first?
Michael Carter-Williams (-113): ESPN 7th, CF Big Board 7th, HoopsHype 13th, SheridanHoops 10th & Draft Express 13th….. AVG Draft Position = 10.6
CJ McCollum (-117): ESPN 10th, Big Board 9th, HoopsHype 12th, SheridanHoops 8th & Draft Express 8th….. AVG Draft Position = 9.4
-Who will be drafted first?
Gorgui Dieng (+108): ESPN 28th, CF Big Board 27th, HoopsHype 20th, SheridanHoops 27th & Draft Express 22nd….. AVG Draft Position = 24.8
Kelly Olynyk (-138): ESPN 23rd, CF Big Board 19th, HoopsHype 17th, Chris Sheridan 17th & Draft Express 12th….. AVG Draft Position = 17.4
One of the most interesting players in this years draft is Victor Oladipo’s teammate from Indiana, Cody Zeller.
Since the beginning of last year’s College Basketball season, Zeller has been projected to go anywhere from number one overall all the way to the early to mid 20’s to around where he is being projected now, which is around the 10th spot.
Zeller’s current projections have him as an average draft position of 10.2, which puts him at just around his over/under of 10.5 and makes for a pretty even wager either way and not exactly what I would be looking for in terms of an advantage. Zeller going 11th in the draft to Philadelphia makes a lot of sense because of the problems the Sixers have had with Andrew Bynum, and would be a decent start to try and forget that atrocious trade up to this point.
Zeller really makes little sense at number eight (Timberwolves) and number 12 (Thunder) because of their current needs and players at those specific positions, such as Kevin Love (power forward) and Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, who virtually play the same type of position.
If Kentucky was the talking point with last year’s NBA Draft having six players taken overall, the Big 10 with Michigan and Indiana each projected to have two players go in the first round this Thursday will create lots of exposure for both schools.
Indiana University has had six players drafted since 2000, while Michigan has only had four players drafted in the past 13 years. Michigan’s last player to go in the first round of the NBA Draft was Jamal Crawford, who went 8th overall in the 2000 draft, while Indiana has had four different players go in the first round since 2000 (Eric Gordon, DJ White, Jared Jeffries & Kirk Haston), with three of those players going in the top 16.
When more proposition bets get added to many of the offshore sports books as we get closer to draft night on Thursday, I will add them to this column.
Thursday: Draft Day UPDATE-
The biggest line movement of the day so far at the offshore sports book 5Dimes shows this proposition bet getting a lot of interest from bettors:
-Will Nerlens Noel be drafted #1 Overall? Yes (-140)/No (+100)…..*By time 3:30 PM EST..here are the odds on 5Dimes of Noel going #1: Yes (-270)/No (+190)
Currently the line for “No” has moved from around “+165” to currently “+100” with the news that Alex Len has the strong possibility of being drafted number one overall tonight to Cleveland. The line today has shifted multiple times, especially the “No” odds, because of all of the news surrounding the number one pick tonight. It seems every few minutes the line has shifted back and forth today as the news and rumors come out about whether the Cavaliers will keep or trade the first pick.
At the offshore sports book Bovada, here are the current odds for who will be drafted number one overall tonight:
-Nerlens Noel (-200)
-Alex Len (+170)
-Ben McLemore (+700)
-Victor Oladipo (+800)
-Otto Porter (+1500)
At the same sports book…here are the current odds for who will be drafted number two overall tonight:
-Victor Oladipo (-150)
-Ben McLemore (+160)
-Nerlens Noel (+300)
-Trey Burke (+900)
The draft position of Cody Zeller was a very interesting topic in our column yesterday, but today if you take a look at his current odds on 5Dimes, you can see where the movement has taken the wager:
-Over/Under 10.5: Yesterday- Over (+100)/Under (-140)…Today (earlier)- Over (+130)/Under (-170)….As of 3:30PM EST- Over (+215)/Under (-295)
Many of the different draft projections have Cody Zeller now going 11th overall to the Philadelphia 76ers, which we mentioned yesterday as a nice fit for Cody because of the Sixers now need for a youthful center. As Chris Sheridan said in his Mock Draft today, “Zeller is a good fit for the Sixers regardless of whether or not they keep Andrew Bynum. He could play a role similar to that of Pau Gasol when Bynum was in Los Angeles, or he could fit in well with a team without Bynum that likes to get out in transition.” Chad Ford, in his mock draft, says if Zeller is gone by the time the Sixers draft at the 11 spot, “Kelly Olynyk and Mason Plumlee” could be options in this position.
One of the most interesting line moves going into today is the draft status of CJ McCollum. Yesterday the odds on CJ to be drafted at the over/under position of 9.5 was (+100) to the over and (-140) to the under.
-Today, CJ’s odds to go over 9.5 (+260)/under 9.5 (-380) has moved significantly since yesterday…
Both Sheridan Hoops, ESPN’s Chad Ford and Draft Express now have McCollum going 7th to the Sacramento Kings, which makes this bet of the under very intriguing. The only issue with betting the under in this particular situation, as well as many others tonight, is the fact that a number of teams are looking to trade their picks because of the “talent-level” of this years class.
Lastly, one of the more intriguing players in this years draft in terms of talent-level and expectations is the former UCLA guard Shabazz Muhammad (SF). On 5Dimes, Muhammad’s draft position is set at 16.5 currently. Here are the line movements and research for the draft status of Muhammad:
-As of yesterday…Shabazz Muhammad draft position of 16.5- Over (-195)/Under (+155)…As of today…Over (-140)/Under (+100)
Sheridan Hoops, ESPN and Draft Express all have Muhammad currently going 18th overall to the Atlanta Hawks, which would make the over a good wager, which is interesting because the line movement for the offshore sports book is moving the opposite direction.
Evan Abrams writes about basketball gambling for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter @Betropolitan..
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