Eisenberg: What are Trey Burke’s chances of succeeding in the NBA

First and foremost, expect Burke to thrive on the offensive end. His 3 to 1 Assist to Turnover Ratio ranks him with the best point guard prospects of the last decade. What’s even more impressive is his care with the ball at fast speeds. Burke’s 4.3 to 1 Assist to Turnover Ratio on fast breaks is the best of all his peers in this draft (per Synergy Sports via DraftExpress.com) He has also mastered fast break lobs from far distances, as seen here:

Moreover, per 100 possessions, Burke’s 37.2 assists and 13.4 turnovers (per Statsheet.com) blow Paul, Conley, and Teague’s college numbers out of the water.

Michigan averaged 121.2 points per 100 possessions with Burke on the floor, ranking them among the top three offenses in the entire NCAA. Perhaps the best indicator of Burke’s value on the court can be found in his Roland Average. Per Statsheet.com, Michigan netted an average of 11 points better when Burke was on the floor compared to when he was resting throughout the season. Michael Carter-Williams, who some scouts prefer to Burke for his total package, only posted a 9.4 Roland Average for Syracuse.

While Burke’s highlights always seem to come from fast breaks, he is actually at his best as a pick and roll creator in the half court. He is an extremely clever distributor and already reads passing angles at an elite level.

Also, despite his youth and relatively small size, Burke utilizes his bulky frame like a seasoned veteran. Watch below as he seals off his defender, which subsequently gives his big man enough time to roll to the hoop:

Amazingly, only 8.2% of Burke’s pick and roll plays resulted in turnovers (per Synergy Sports via DraftExpress.com). In a league in which every team utilizes the pick and roll frequently, Burke may already be one of the most efficient pick and roll practitioners in the world.

Burke’s shooting percentages indicate that he will be a steady threat from the perimeter in the NBA. His 1.01 points per possession on jump shots is nearly identical to Damian Lillard’s coming out of Weber State last year (per Synergy Sports via DraftExpress.com). Burke’s 42% shooting off the dribble was just barely worse than his 44% on set shots.

Burke’s College Shot ((TS% + 3PT%)/2), a statistic I invented to exaggerate the positive impact a good shooter has on his team, was 47.6% last season. To put that into perspective, a great shooter like Stephen Curry posted a 53.9 % College Shot in his best year at Davidson. Meanwhile, a very good shooter like Deron Williams posted a 46.2% College Shot in his best year at Illinois. Clearly, Burke is destined to become a perimeter threat.

While defenders will have to respect his range, they will need to be equally wary of Burke’s quick first step. When defenders overplay him, Burke uses his body and dribbling abilities to get around them handily. For a player we all shy away from calling an elite athlete, Burke gets to the rim at an alarmingly fast rate. He also has an improving touch around the rim and can use both hands to finish on the drive.

Overall, Burke’s vast offensive repertoire far outweighs his shortcomings on defense. Although Burke will face plenty of pressure and scrutiny early on, I expect him to overcome the adversity. We haven’t seen a point guard as statistically efficient and aesthetically pleasing as Burke on offense in quite some time.

Jacob Eisenberg writes the daily Evening News for Sheridan Hoops. He is a junior at Emory University and serves as a credentialed reporter at Atlanta Hawks games. Check out his website here. Follow him on twitter @eisenberg43.