Peter May called it: Houston was Best Choice for Dwight Howard

The money hit that Howard would take by signing elsewhere is considerable. There is no getting around that; the new CBA makes it almost financially suicidal to go elsewhere. Unless . . . the money you’d make elsewhere is still pretty good, the team you’d be going to is pretty good and getting better (and much better than the one you’re leaving) and the chances are pretty-to-very good that you will get back a lot of what you’re giving up with a new deal at the age of 32.

Which leads to me the inescapable conclusion that Howard has to sign with Houston. It makes all the sense in the world for so many reasons.

Have you seen their roster? James Harden, 24 in August. Jeremy Lin, 25 in August. Chandler Parsons, 25 in October. Omer Asik, 27 in July. Patrick Beverley, 25 in July. Thomas Robinson, 23 in March. All of those players are better than anyone on the Lakers’ roster not named Kobe, Pau or Steve.

Again, if you’re Howard, where do you want to spend the next four years of your career? With all the uncertainty in Los Angeles? Or with a young, exciting team going forward?

There’s also the coaching issue. I am utterly and completely convinced that Kevin McHale was hired to coach the Rockets for this very purpose – to be the lure that lands Howard. Think about it. Why would the Rockets have hired him otherwise? It’s not like he had dazzling coaching credentials. But the ever-forward-looking Daryl Morey, Houston’s general manager, has been lusting after Howard for a while, and bringing in McHale to land and eventually tutor Howard is pure genius.

It worked before. McHale was in Minnesota in 1995 when a high schooler named Kevin Garnett joined the Timberwolves. McHale worked tirelessly with the kid, and Garnett seems to have turned out all right. Howard is much farther along, obviously, but not that farther along where he couldn’t be helped by the Master of The Drop Step.

Yes, Dallas will get into the bidding as well, but the Mavericks offer … what, exactly? An aging Dirk Nowitzki and … um …. who else? Again, there is nothing close to what the Rockets can offer in terms of an attractive team, instructive coach and huge upside. Same with Atlanta.

There’s a reason Howard hasn’t said he is committed to the Lakers. It’s because he isn’t. We went through the same thing two years ago with LeBron James in Cleveland. He made all the coy statements about staying and then left the Cavaliers hanging. He’s in an inarguably better place now.

Howard will be too when he signs with Houston and makes the Rockets an immediate contender in the West. Forget the Lakers.

To quote the wonderful Jodi Deitz in Saturday Night Live’s “Bronx Beat,” the chances of him staying put are “0.00 percent.”

Peter May is the only writer who covered the final NBA games played by Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan. He has covered the league for three decades for The Hartford Courant and The Boston Globe and has written three books on the Boston Celtics. His work also appears in The New York Times. You can follow him on Twitter.