Still, at 50 percent of what he was, Oden would be a huge upgrade, a major plus with James’ reminders he
doesn’t like guarding bigs for small-ball-loving coach Erik Spoelstra, as when he made a show of plunging himself into an ice bath after facing Al Jefferson last season in Salt Lake City.
Getting one big man in place would mean a lot in the Heat’s best-case scenario, a three-peat.
Of course, if winning a title is a minimum expectation — and it is — that’s your biggest problem right there. In any case, most of the roster will then opt out unless, Ray Allen (approaching 39), Chris Andersen (36) and Shane Battier (36) call it “retiring.”
Then there’s Dwyane Wade, who will be 32 and has been surmounting predictions of doom since he was 25. If he pulled himself together to average 23.5 points in Games 4-7 of the NBA Finals after starting 17-10-16, he wasn’t the same player after limping out of their 27-game winning streak on a sore knee.
Wade’s 2013-14 season will be all-important since – good, bad or indifferent – Riley will never walk away from him after all he has done for the franchise.
The conventional wisdom is fervent in the belief James ain’t going anywhere. On the other hand, when wasn’t it?
In 2010, very few believed James would leave Cleveland. Playing alongside Wade was too silly for discussion, even amid reports it was being considered.
Bron’s peeps now insist that one thing will decide where he plays: Who gives him the best chance of 
winning titles?
There’s no doubt Riles will put on a heroic defense. He’s an ace at this stuff, as when he dropped his championship rings like boulders on the conference table in front of Bron in 2010.
In the absence of assured title shots, Bron insiders have the leading contenders as the Cavaliers, who are still home and have all those young players, and the Lakers, who have $55 million of cap space, even with Kobe Bryant there.
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Bron once regarded Bryant skeptically but that ended in 2007, the first of their summers as U.S. Olympic teammates.
Of course, Miami can do all in its power to land Oden, offering every penny of its taxpayer exception, and still lose him. Indeed, inviting the Heat, Pelicans and Kings to this week’s workout, with three more teams (Spurs, Hawks, Mavericks) involved, suggests Oden doesn’t intend to sell himself cheap.
For the Heat, adding a huge piece for a small price may be too good to be true.
Nevertheless, whether that was a cannon or a popgun, it’s the first shot in Bron ‘14.
Hall of Fame writer Mark Heisler is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops and LakersNation. Follow him on Twitter.