Running Backs for Week 6
The breaking news is that Adrian Peterson’s/$14866/MIN two-year-old son has died after alleged domestic violence involving the boyfriend of the child’s mother. Both Peterson and the Vikings maintain that the star running back will play, but there is every chance his focus on the game will be somewhat below his norm. It’s a good time to avoid over-investing in AP.
The Texans will seek to take the pressure off embattled QB Matt Schaub/$11270/HOU by concentrating on the running game. Expect lots of Ben Tate/$5163/HOU and feature back Arian Foster/$13215/HOU. Foster is carrying a mild injury, but is my top play for a monster game among elite backs. DeMarco Murray/$12616/DAL might be even better value. Though not cheap, I regard Murray as being instrumental in the Cowboys’ game plan. Without the pressure of keeping up with the Broncos offense, Dallas will opt for a balanced attack against Washington, with Murray featured early and often. The Seahawks have a home match-up against the surprising Tennessee Titans. Marshawn Lynch/$11993/SEA is set to be the workhorse back – only an early blowout or injury are a threat to Lynch‘s numbers.
An interesting and relatively cheap tandem play is Knowshon Moreno/$11437/DEN and Ronnie Hillman/$4815/DEN. It is highly probable that the second half will be played in blowout conditions, and that means plenty of garbage time chances for both backs to pile up the carries and yards.
Once bitten, twice shy, but I can’t resist the deep discount this week on Trent Richardson/$8259/IND. My other bargain play is DeAngelo Williams/$7380/CAR. I expect a low-scoring affair between the Panthers and Vikings, and Carolina will rely more on Williams with top target TE Greg Olsen/$9044/CAR limited in mobility due to a foot injury. Though the Bills will try to run against the Bengals to take pressure off the new QB Thad Lewis/BUF, I don’t anticipate great success for either C.J. Spiller/$6430/BUF or Fred Jackson/$10735/BUF.
Wide Receivers for Week 6
The Cowboys receiver dynamics are murky this week thanks to the return of Miles Austin/$4725/DAL. No one knows how many snaps he’ll play, but Austin is bound to cut into the targets reserved for Terrance Williams/$8830/DAL. Dez Bryant/$14133/DAL will still be the go to receiver in the red-zone, so his high price is fully justified. Because the Cowboys will go with a balanced attack this week, expectations for QB Tony Romo/DAL should be downgraded. Austin himself is an interesting sleeper pick because of the rock-bottom price.
On the other side of the ball, the Redskins will try to run with RB Alfred Morris/$8187/WAS, but I anticipate them playing catchup most of the game. A high volume of passes make top target Pierre Garcon/$11862/WAS a great value play this week.
It is tempting to select the entire quartet of Broncos prime receivers (Demaryius Thomas/$14034/DEN, Wes Welker/$12446/DEN, Eric Decker/$10559/DEN and TE Julius Thomas/$11569/DEN), but that could be recipe for disaster if blowout conditions arrive early. To further complicate things, it’s a fool’s game to pick out any of the four to standout from the others. As long as ordinary game dynamics apply, the four Denver receivers are no more and no less than fair value.
The Lions have a tough ask in Cleveland against the stout Browns defense; all the more so if superstar Calvin Johnson/$9519/DET (a game time decision) doesn’t play or is limited. If he does play, Megatron becomes one of the most intriguing speculative plays of the year. But without him and Nate Burleson/DET, the Lions receiving corps is very thin. QB Matthew Stafford/$12927/DET undergoes a massive downgrade without Johnson in the lineup and most everyone else suffers too, with the exception of Kris Durham/$4358/DET.
Among bargain plays, Chargers tandem Keenen Allen/$7072/SDC and Vincent Brown/$6176/SDC are my top recommendations. Jacksonville duo Cecil Shorts/$9971/JAX and Justin Blackmon/$11982/JAX are interesting picks based on sheer volume of passes that I expect the Jaguars to throw as they play from behind.
