In a teleconference last week, we asked NBA analysts Chris Webber and Greg Anthony to pick a Western Conference team which missed the playoffs last season but will make the playoffs this season.
“Dallas, mainly because of Dirk Nowitzki,” Webber said. “He’ll be back healthy. What he does, with spacing, getting guys involved … We take his game for granted.”
“I would go with the Pelicans,” Anthony said. “I think that’s a team that could make sizeable leaps and surprise a lot of people.”
Both those teams are certainly among the half-dozen in the hunt for what appears to be two postseason spots up for grabs in the West. Those spots belonged to the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, who also remain in the running despite taking some backward steps in the offseason.
Without getting into seeding specifics, the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets look like mortal locks to be playing in May.
At the same time, the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz have punched their ticket to Tankapalooza and the Sacramento Kings should be doing the same, but for some reason aren’t.
That leaves six teams gunning for two spots. Our projections are below.
DALLAS MAVERICKS: They probably have the best coach among this group in Rick Carlisle, who is going to have to do the majority of his work on defensive scheming because he has a handful of swinging gates among his rotation in Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis and Nowitzki. Brandan Wright’s shoulder injury puts pressure on foul-prone Sam Dalembert to stay on the floor and Bernard James to avoid his frequent disappearing acts.
The good news is that despite striking out on Dwight Howard and Chris Paul this offseason, the Mavericks did put together a veteran group that by and large isn’t caught up in minutes, shots and other personal agendas.
The wild card in all of this is Ellis, who could become a far more efficient scorer playing alongside Jose Calderon and Nowitzki — or continue to play with blinders and neutralize what could be a pretty effective offense. If Nowitzki is healthy, there is no reason to believe the Mavs won’t be in the hunt, even with a lousy defense.
VERDICT: In. Depending on the matchup, they could be a pain in the neck in the first round.
DENVER NUGGETS: They won’t be anywhere near the 57 wins they rang up last season, not with Andre Iguodala in 
Golden State, Danilo Gallinari in the trainer’s room and George Karl at ESPN. New GM Tim Connelly was active in the offseason, but the additions – J.J. Hickson, Randy Foye, Darrell Arthur, Nate Robinson – are better names than they are fits and create some redundancy.
After sitting alongside Frank Vogel for two seasons, rookie coach Brian Shaw wants to play the “smashmouth basketball” popularized by the Pacers. That may be difficult with a fleet of undersized guards in front of reckless rim protector JaVale McGee and his career 4.3 fouls per 36 minutes.
Denver still has plenty of depth to withstand the injury bug that already is hitting some West playoff hopefuls pretty hard. What the Nuggets still don’t have is a clear-cut first option they can force-feed in the guts of the game.
VERDICT: Out, unless they package some of their depth and extra draft picks for a stud.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS: No one will dare question Kobe Bryant’s competitive will, and we’re not about to break from the herd. Instead, what we offer is that Bryant’s insatiable desire to remain at the pinnacle of his craft is the worst path the Lakers can possibly take this season.
Whenever Bryant returns from his torn Achilles tendon – Opening Night, Thanksgiving, Christmas, whenever – the preferred premise of tanking this season for a high draft pick and loads of cap room will come to a screeching halt. He won’t allow a night off for any of his teammates, many of whom are too old and injury-prone to keep up.