Players on new teams offer potential opportunities. Paul Millsap looks like a great fit in Atlanta, Eric Bledsoe takes on a featured role in Phoenix and Andre Iguodala is a tremendous addition for the Warriors, making them better defensively and turning Harrison Barnes into an offensive threat off the bench. Reunited with his favorite coach and back in a starting role, Kevin Martin is being overlooked in many drafts.
Dirk Nowitzki looks much healthier this fall, Monta Ellis will have plenty of room to operate and if Jose Calderon can stay healthy, the Mavericks will score in bunches.
In the later rounds, DeMar DeRozan has had a superb preseason; while it seems like he’s been underachieving for years, he’s only 22. Gerald Henderson is underrated and the Bobcats are better up front. Tiago Splitter has earned more minutes and touches.
The 76ers are horrible in real life. Could they be undervalued in fantasy? Thaddeus Young might lead the league in minutes and Evan Turner will be close behind. Spencer Hawes is an OK choice as a second big man and the deep sleeper is James Anderson, who has earned a starting wing position with a solid October.
A combination of maturity, experience and added responsibility could make Bradley Beal a star. Other young guns who could break out this year include Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter of Utah (though they are handicapped by having no point guard) and Chicago’s Jimmy Butler. In general, picking the right second- and third-year players is a shortcut to fantasy success.
Players to Avoid
The injury brigade includes enormous question marks like Russell Westbrook, Kobe Bryant, Joakim Noah, Rajon Rondo and Andrew Bynum. There is no telling exactly when they will return, nor how effective they will be. They will all be drafted eventually, whether by autodraft, or someone assuming the risk for the potential reward. In fact, you could even target those who might take advantage in their absence. Taj Gibson should be busy all season for the Bulls and Reggie Jackson is the Thunder PG for the first several weeks.
Old guys like Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan are going to be rested. If you can benefit from their stats when they do play, be my guest. As with the injury risks above, there is a point in every draft at which they become good value, but it’s hard to say exactly where.
There are only two rookies on my watch list. Victor Oladipo will probably be drafted by someone even more optimistic, but Kelly Olynyk might fall to me. (Actually, in the 320-deep league, I just picked up Vitor Faverani as a FA.) It’s not a stellar freshman crop, and playing time isn’t guaranteed for Ben McLemore or Anthony Bennett. Look for sophomores instead.
In a league that counts free throws made, Dwight Howard is a stud. If FT% is a category, not so much. Andre Drummond is another beast in certain formats, a liability in others.
Resources
Another of our colleagues, Jeff Nichols wrote a six-part Fantasy Basketball Primer before last season. Whether you’re a relative beginner or a veteran, there is plenty of great advice in the series, from one of the best strategists in fantasy sports. Part 2 looked at Head-to-Head, Rotisserie and Keeper League strategies, Part 3 outlined certain league customizations, Part 4 was on how to find sleepers and Part 5 helps us build a draft plan and auction strategies. The final installment was about in-season tactics and putting the entire Primer into practice.
Thanks to all the loyal readers over the last two years, and best of luck with all your teams this season. @SheridanFantasy will still provide Twitter updates, you’ll just be interacting with @RobDudek instead of me.
Thanks, Kent. It was fun and I will miss your daily recaps.