Fantasy Spin: Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Only the Bulls and Clippers Rest

Here’s a look at tonight’s action from a daily fantasy perspective. Dollar figures are DraftStreet prices. An asterisk (*) indicates the team is playing on the second of back-to-back nights.

Miami Heat* at Philadelphia 76ers (7 pm EDT)- Over/Under Total = 195.5; Heat -11
After an opening night in which they manhandled the Bulls until a late spurt made things interesting, the champs travel to Philadelphia for the second half of the back-to-back. The Sixers are widely considered the NBA’s worst team, so even a slightly tired Heat team should coast to victory. Given the great depth on display last night, predicting minutes for each player is a crap shoot. LeBron/MIA could go off for a huge number if he is allowed to play his normal minutes; somehow I don’t think he will be (but just in case I’ll sneak him into a few of my lineups).

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers (7 pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 195.5; Nets -3.5
First overall pick F Anthony Bennett/$9,750/CLE makes his debut. He will not likely be a high-impact player right away, and so his sub-10k salary is a touch below fair value tonight. Best bets among the Cavs are G Kyrie Irving/$16,730/CLE and F Tristan Thompson/$11,205/CLE. I smell an upset here, as the veteran Nets are not at full strength and the talent gap isn’t large.

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors (7 pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 189.5; Raptors -8
Highly touted Canadian rookie C Kelly Olynyk/$9,235/BOS makes a stop in Toronto; he has an intriguing matchup against rising star C Jonas Valanciunas/$12,710/TOR. Olynyk won’t have much help, as the undermanned Celtics struggle against the improved Raptors. Valanciunas, on the other hand, is an intriguing mid-range option at center.

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks (7:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 196.5; Knicks -8
F John Henson/$9,435/Mil could have been among my top sleepers, but word is that F Ersan Ilyasova/$12,980/MIL is healthy enough to start.

Charlotte Bobcats at Houston Rockets (8pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 204.5; Rockets -12
According to the betting line, tipped to be the second highest scoring game and the most one-sided of the night. New Bobcat C Al Jefferson/$16,835/CHA is day-to-day with a right ankle sprain but so far has not been scratched. It looks like an easy victory for Houston. Despite playing time concerns, I’ll take my chances with G James Harden/$18,055/HOU but give C Dwight Howard/$19150/HOU a miss.

Orlando Magic* at Minnesota Timberwolves (8pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 197.5; Nets -9
For his return, F Kevin Love/$17,788/MIN couldn’t have asked for a better conditions: Orlando is playing the second of back-to-back games and missing key players F Glen Davis/ORL and F Tobias Harris/ORL. On Tuesday, F Andrew Nicholson/$6180/ORL had a brilliant first half, but mysteriously disappeared in the second.

Indiana Pacers* at New Orleans Pelicans (8pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 188; Pacers -2
The Magic battled the Pacers to a standstill in the first half before Indiana pulled away in the second on the back of superior talent. C Roy Hibbert/$13,315/IND was a dominant force but left the game with a knee injury. He’s apparently good to go, but give him a pass tonight as the Pelicans will be tougher inside.

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (8:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 188.5; Spurs -5.5
One last rodeo for F Tim Duncan/$16,045/SAS? Expecting Duncan to hit the ground running for game one is a tough ask. Projected to be one of the lower scoring games, there isn’t a lot of obvious DraftStreet value here, though F Kawhi Leonard/$12,775/SAS can be had at reasonable cost and has the air of a man on the rise.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz (9pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 195; Thunder -6
Without G Russell Westbrook/OKC, Utah will look to contain F Kevin Durant/$21,325/OKC. Durant should have support from G Reggie Jackson/$7,080/OKC, the latter being a premium value play tonight. Rookie C Steven Adams/$3,500/OKC is a speculative play of the first order.

Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings (10pm EDT) – Over/Under Total= 205.5; Kings -3
Expected to be the highest-scoring game of the night, which means lots of DraftStreet points on offer. Even though G Greivis Vasquez/$12,605/SAC gets the start, G Isaiah Thomas/$7,305/SAC is the superior fantasy player and should produce good value. For the Nuggets, C J.J. Hickson/$10,450/DEN is playable, as are cheap options G Andre Miller/$6,890/DEN and F Anthony Randolph/$5675/DEN.

Los Angeles Lakers* at Golden State Warriors (10:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 202.5; Warriors -12
If you are in need of a rock-solid guard, Stephen Curry/$17,500/GSW is your man. With the Lakers playing the second of back-to-back games, G Steve Nash/$10,840/LAL will get limited minutes (if he plays at all). If Nash sits, G Jordan Farmar/$5,970/LAL and Jodie Meeks/$4,900/LAL could be in line for a playing time boost, especially given their stellar performances in Tuesday’s surprise win over the Clippers. Early in the season, depth is key and the Lakers showed it in spades.

Other games:
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons (7:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 190.5; Pistons -3
Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks (8:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 196; Maverics -5
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns (10pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 198; Blazers -5

Nights like this are both exhilarating and nightmarish for daily fantasy players. With 28 teams in action, sorting through all the “playables” is a daunting task. Barring obvious exceptions (in this case low-cost Lakers), I eliminate from consideration all players who have a hint of injury attached to them, as well as players who played heavy minutes the previous night (about 30+ this early in the season).

My team in the $22 entry/$20,000 GPP at DraftStreet (salary=$99,203; $100,000 max):
Stars worth starting: Kevin Durant/OKC, James Harden/HOU
Top Bargain Plays: Reggie Jackson/OKC, Jordan Farmar/LAL, Xavier Henry/LAL
Speculative Plays of the Day: Kevin Love/MIN, Jonas Valanciunas/TOR, Kawhi Leonard/SAS