Fantasy Spin: Saturday, November 2, 2013

Dwayne Wade/MIA was back in the lineup for the Heat, but it wasn’t enough. The Nets held the lead throughout and a furious rally led by LeBron James/MIA ultimately fell a point short. John Wall/WAS was unstoppable in the first half as the Wizards built a sizable lead over the youthful Sixers, only to have Philly storm back in the fourth quarter and take a 109-102 victory. Anthony Davis/NOP was dominant, but his Pelicans were trounced by the Magic 110-90. Kevin Durant/OKC and the Thunder were abysmal as the Timberwolves won their second straight at home, 100-81.

Thomas Explodes, but Clippers Hold on

The Clippers were playing their third game in four nights and had just enough gas to hold off the Kings. Nominal backup point guard Isaiah Thomas/SAC (9 of 13 shooting, including 3 for 3 from beyond the arc, 29 points and 4 assists) was superb in the third quarter and DeMarcus Cousins/SAC (24 points, 10 rebounds,3 steals, 2 blocks) outplayed DeAndre Jordan/LAC inside. The Clippers were led by the solid Blake Griffin/LAC (20 points, 17 boards, 6 assists) and Chris Paul/LAC (26 points, 10 assists). It is clear that Thomas is the Kings’ number one point guard (over Greivis Vasquez/SAC); the tactic of using him off the bench all but ensures he plays heavy minutes against the other teams’ bench players. Thus he retains the value of a starting point guard.

The Spurs were without Tim Duncan/SAS but had enough depth to beat the Lakers. James Harden/HOU (34 points, 4 boards, 3 helpers) led the way, as the Rockets staved off the rallying Mavericks. Al Horford/ATL (22 points, 15 rebounds) dominated Jonas Valanciunas/TOR as the Hawks established control in the second half.

With legend Bill Russell in the house, it looked like it the Celtics would coast to victory over the visiting Bucks. It was not to be. Milwaukee dominated the second half, led by back-up center Zaza Pachulia/MIL (20 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals). Incredibly, the Bucks’ reserves played more minutes that their starting five. Boston wasted a virtuoso performance from Vitor Faverani/BOS (18 points, 12 rebounds, 6 blocks).

In yesterday’s Fantasy Spin, I rolled out a DraftStreet lineup I thought combined high potential and safety – let’s review the results (percent ownership in the 330-entry/$11 contest in parentheses):

Trevor Ariza/WAS, $7,790, 35.00 points, $223 per point (19% ownership)
Anthony Davis/NOP, $16,015, 49.75 points, $322 per point (39% ownership)
DeMarre Carroll/ATL, $6,955, 19.25 points, $361 per point (10% ownership)
Tiago Splitter/SAS, $11,565, 28.00 points, $413 per point (6% ownership)
Kevin Love/MIN, $19,981, 42.00 points, $476 per point (31% ownership)
Chris Paul/LAC, $18,895, 39.50 point, $478 per point (18% ownership)
Jason Smith/NOP, $6,790, 13.00 points, $522 per point (2% ownership)
Michael Carter-Williams/PHI, 19.75 points, $551 per point (41% ownership)

The baseline to measure against is about $450 per point, though you’re happy when your star players break $500 a point. That lineup produced 246.25 DraftStreet points, which is enough to put you in solid contention almost any night. There were only two mild disappointments. One was rookie Carter-Williams/PHI, who picked his game up in the second half after a slow start. He was heavily owned so there was little harm done.

Of course, I love to tinker and I didn’t end up with that lineup in any contest, but all those players were mainstays across my various lineups. I finished 24th out of 300 in the $11/$3,000 GPP and cashed in two Double-Ups, but overall it was a slight losing day. To paraphrase what I wrote yesterday, those kinds of days are par for the course and as long as you are consistently finishing in the top half of your leagues, the big cashes will eventually arrive.

Saturday NBA contests at DraftStreet

For the low-rollers, DraftStreet has a $11 multi-entry/$2,000 GPP with room for 200 runners on offer. If you are a big budget player, there are $5,000 and $4,000 pools costing $215 and $109 to enter. As always there are plenty of Double-Up leagues, including an $11/$1,000 GPP and a $22/$1,600 GPP. Don’t forget the smaller 10-entry and 20-entry contests: you have a more realistic chance of taking top spot and it’s always satisfying to beat the entire field.

Now a look at tonight’s games from a daily fantasy perspective. Dollar figures are DraftStreet prices. An asterisk (*) indicates the team is playing on the second of back-to-back nights. For the first time this season, we have numerous teams playing back-to-back. I will be watching closely to see the effects of fatigue on various players – this will be useful information to squirrel away for future use.

Cleveland Cavaliers* at Indiana Pacers (7pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 188.5; Pacers -8.5
The Cavs couldn’t handle the Bobcats last night and will be hard pressed to keep up with the rested Pacers. Tristan Thompson/$11,205/CLE and Kyrie Irving/$16,730/CLE are solid fantasy players, but give them a pass in this matchup. Paul George/$15,750/IND has looked like the best player in the league so far – and he’s still relatively cheap. Lance Stephenson/$9,345/IND makes a pretty good sidekick.

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers* (7:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 195.5; Bulls -8.5
With expectations raised, Michael Carter-Williams/$11,755/PHI let a lot of fantasy owners down last night. There were mitigating circumstances: he had his hands full on defense against John Wall/WAS. Handling Derrick Rose/$17,450/CHI won’t be easy either, but Rose isn’t yet the beast he will soon be. I’m going to sprinkle Carter-Williams into a few of my lineups based on his explosive potential. The Bulls are a deeper bunch than the Wizards so the Sixers will be hard pressed to make it three upsets in a row. I like Carlos Boozer/$12,975/CHI and Jimmy Butler/$10,290/CHI as speculative plays.

Charlotte Bobcats* at New Orleans Pelicans* (8pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 188.5; Pelicans -7.5
Al Jefferson/$16,835/CHA has a bum ankle, and without him at full strength it will be quite a task to contain Anthony Davis/$16,015/NOP. I expect a superb encore performance from Davis tonight.

Toronto Raptors* at Milwaukee Bucks* (8:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 192.5; Raptors -1
I’ll be interested to see how many minutes Zaza Pachulia/$5820/MIL gets tonight. He’s an exemplary bargain play.

Memphis Grizzlies* at Dallas Mavericks* (8:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 195; Mavs -2.5
If you need a rock solid play, you could do a lot worse than Marc Gasol/$15,525/MEM. DeJuan Blair/$6,225/DAL was underowned in DraftStreet last night and is an intriguing play tonight.

Houston Rockets* at Utah Jazz* (9pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 199; Rockets -6
Derrick Favors/$14,710/UTA put on a rebounding clinic in a losing cause against the Suns. He matches up well against the Rockets’ defense. Dwight Howard/$19,150/HOU remains a touch overpriced, but James Harden/$18,055/HOU is fair value.

San Antonio Spurs* at Portland Trail Blazers* (10pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 197; Spurs -1.5
With or without Tim Duncan/$16,045/SAS, this one should be hard fought to the end. Wesley Matthews/$9,465/POR was one of the bright lights in the Blazers win over the Jazz and he is good value here.

Sacramento Kings* at Golden State Warriors (10:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 194.5; Warriors -10
The betting line is inordinately skewed in favor the Warriors. Isaiah Thomas/$7,305/SAC is an intriguing speculative play. I’ll be curious to see how well Andrew Bogut/$12,150/GSW defends DeMarcus Cousins/$17,120/SAC. Stephen Curry/$17,500/GSW will be one of the cornerstones of my teams tonight. Streaky Klay Thompson/$10,530/GSW is the epitome of a speculative play.

My DraftStreet team in the $11/$2,000 GPP (subject to change) ($99,470 total salary of $100,000 max):
Stars worth starting: Paul George/IND, Anthony Davis/NOP, Stephen Curry/GSW
Top Bargain Plays: , Zaza Pachulia/MIL, Lance Stephenson/IND
Speculative Plays of the Day: Michael Carter-Williams/PHI, Jimmy Butler/CHI, Carlos Boozer/CHI