The big story of the night was yet another comeback win by the upstarts from Philadelphia, this time taking out big-time Eastern Conference contenders, the Chicago Bulls. I will skip a review of the other action last night to delve deeper into the Sixers-Bulls game.
High Tempo Makes up for Deficiencies
Once again, Philadelphia came from far behind with a second half spurt to leave their opponents bewildered and on the losing end of the scoreboard. This time they owned the third quarter to catch the Bulls before outplaying them in the final minutes of the game to secure a homecourt win.
Michael Carter-Williams/PHI had a slow start but awoke in the second half, putting on a virtuoso display of ball handling, driving and dishing. The Sixers are a completely different team with Carter-Williams driving the bus. He repeatedly blew by Derrick Rose/CHI on his drive to the hoop, sometimes shooting over two big men, other times kicking it back out for a three point attempt. His favorite kick-out target was big man Spencer Hawes/CHI, whose adept long-range shooting created problems for the Bulls all night. Hawes was 8 of 11, including 2 for 4 for three-point land and was a big part of the Sixers win.
In the first half, the Sixers defense could not stop the Bulls inside, as Carlos Boozer/CHI led a balanced attack that bludgeoned Philadelphia. Chicago led 64-49 at the half.
Philadelphia stayed within reach by committing to a fast tempo game, which included frenzied movement in their halfcourt game. There is no doubt that the unrelenting pace wore down the Bulls and was the key factor in their second half collapse. Rose was reduced to a shell of his usual self by the 4th quarter, unable to defend Carter Williams/PHI and turning the ball over several times in the concluding minutes of the game. Mysteriously, the Bulls didn’t make much of an effort to slow the game down in the second half until the Sixers had caught up.
In yesterday’s Fantasy Spin, as is my custom, I provided a recommended lineup for DraftStreet leagues. I should make a concerted effort to reduce my tinkering, as that lineup turned out to be better than any the adjusted one I made.
Previously, I introduced a simple measure of a player’s value, namely dollars per DraftStreet point. Today, I will build on that approach.
This method starts with a different baseline. Take any large field contest and find the median score. For a 550-entry contest, the teams that finish in 275th and 276th place are the median. This will be our baseline. In the case of last night’s 550-entry contest, the median team score was 223.00. Taking the maximum salary ($100,000) and dividing by 223, we arrive at $448.43 per DraftStreet point. For each individual player, we take their salary and divide it by 448.43 to determine what their individual baseline score is. The last step is to compare their actual DraftStreet point total to the baseline, i.e. net points. Here is how last night’s recommended lineup fared (percent ownership in the 550-entry/$2 contest in parentheses):
Anthony Davis/NOP, $16,015, 60.50 points, 35.71 baseline, +24.79 net (69% ownership)
Michael Carter-Williams/PHI, $11,775, 41.50 points, 26.26 baseline, +15.24 net (17% ownership)
Lance Stephenson/IND, $9,345, 26.75 points, 20.84 baseline,+5.94 (36% ownership)
Carlos Boozer/CHI, $12,975, 34.00 points, 28.93 baseline,+5.07 (24% ownership)
Paul George/IND, $15,750, 37.25 points, 35.12 baseline,+2.13 (60% ownership)
Jimmy Butler/CHI, $10,290, 25.00 points, 22.95 baseline, +2.05 (24% ownership)
Zaza Pachulia/MIL, $5,820, 8.25 points, 12.98 baseline, -4.73 (36% ownership)
Stephen Curry/GSW, $17,500, 33.75 points, 39.03 baseline, -5.28 (30% ownership)
Net points is, in essence, a measure of our edge over the field in selecting that player. We can refine this measure. Suppose instead of 69% of teams owning Anthony Davis/NOP, everyone owned him. Our edge over the field would be zero regardless of how well he did. To account for the ownership factor, we multiply each player’s net points by the proportion of teams that did not have him in the lineup. In this case, Davis’ +15.24 is multiplied by .31, resulting in an adjusted edge of +7.68.
Adjusting in this way, it turns out that Carter-Williams/PHI was our most valuable player, with an adjusted net of +12.65. The other adjusted nets: Davis +7.68, Boozer +3.85, Stephenson +3.78, Butler +1.56, George +0.85, Pachulia -3.03, Curry -3.69.
That lineup produced 267.00 DraftStreet points, which would have been enough to finish 14th in the 550-entry ($15 win from $2) and 6th place in the 200-entry ($110 win from $11). Needless to say I am figuratively kicking myself today.
Sunday NBA contests at DraftStreet
For the low-rollers, DraftStreet has a $2 multi-entry/$2,000 GPP with room for 1100 runners on offer, with $360 dollars for first place. As is the normal custom, you can enter multiple lineups. If you are a big budget player, the $109 multi-entry/$4000 GPP should grab your attention. As always there are plenty of Double-Up leagues, including an $5/$500 GPP. Don’t forget the smaller 10-entry and 20-entry contests. I’ve found that you don’t need quite as high a score to make the money, so if you are just missing the payout slots in the GPPs, this could be right up your alley.
I’m excited to note that DraftStreet has launched an incredible voucher promotion. All you have to do is enter NBA leagues between November 1st and 14th and at the conclusion you will get a fee voucher from DraftStreet (provided you have earned at least 100 Street Creds). The more contests you enter the closer you get to the top prize – a $109 NBA voucher. I’ve accumulated 520 NBA Creds so far and I need less than 1500 more to get it. This is a great opportunity to boost your play, get a voucher and parlay that into a big score.
Timberwolves and Knicks Clash in NYC
A look at tonight’s games from a daily fantasy perspective. Dollar figures are DraftStreet prices. All of the teams except the Knicks have had one day of rest since their last game (Knicks have had two days off).
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons (6pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 191; Pistons -9.5
Early season surprise, C Vitor Faverani/$8,893/BOS will have his work cut out against a tough Pistons frontcourt: foul trouble for the rookie Celtic is a concern. It’s hard to choose between C Andre Drummond/$14,605/DET and C Greg Monroe/$14,305/DET so I recommend choosing neither. F Brandon Bass/$7,100/BOS has averaged 33.5 minutes so far and if he gets near that tonight he is my top bargain play.
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat (6pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 200; Heat -13.5
If G John Wall’s/$17,585/WAS back spasms act up, the Wizards’ chances against an “angry” 1-2 Heat are all but torpedoed. G Trevor Ariza/$8,791/WAS will be asked to shoulder the burden and that makes him a high-upside play today. F LeBron James/$21,406/MIA has yet to justify his DraftStreet salary this season, but it’s hard to leave him out of your lineup all the same.
Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic (6pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 196; Nets -6
Look for the Brooklyn veterans, among them C Brook Lopez/$21,406/BKN and F Kevin Garnett/$12,990/BKN to have success inside against the Magic. Orlando will counter with their quick tempo game led by G Jameer Nelson/$12,282/ORL and G Arron Afflalo/$11,087/ORL. It should be interesting.
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder (7pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 197; Thunder -12.5
F Kevin Durant/$21,325/OKC and the Thunder were terrible versus Minnesota – they look to rebound at home against a theoretically weaker opponent. Durant is a huge risk, while G Reggie Jackson/$7,080/OKC is cheap enough to be a low-risk/high-upside play. I see this as a much closer game than the line suggests. I’ve been impressed by C Miles Plumlee/$11,245/PHO and G P.J. Tucker/$7,866/PHO is a great bargain play, especially if G Goran Dragic/$14,340/PHO is limited by his facial injury.
Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks (7:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 195; Knicks -3.5
Though F Kevin Love/$19,991/MIN has been great so far, I’m going to pass on him in this one. Against C Tyson Chandler/$12,775/NYK it will be tough sledding in the paint, so look for Love to shoot long-range jumpers. G J.R. Smith’s/$11,475/NYK suspension continues, so the offensive burden will be carried by F Carmelo Anthony/$16,830/NYK.
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers (9:30pm EDT)- Over/Under Total= 204.5; Hawks -2
It’s hard to know which of the Lakers guards will have big games, but in a high scoring game a couple of them will bust out and become massive value plays. I think G Jordan Farmar/$6,954/LAL is the best of the bunch, but his minutes are a function of how many minutes G Steve Nash/$10,840/LAL plays. Either way, I like C Al Horford/$17,200/ATL and G Jeff Teague/$13,405/ATL to have good games.
My DraftStreet team in the $2/$2,000 GPP (subject to change) ($99,229 total salary of $100,000 max):
Stars worth starting: LeBron James/MIA, Carmelo Anthony/NYK, Jeff Teague/ATL
Top Bargain Plays: Brandon Bass/BOS, Trevor Ariza/WAS
Speculative Plays of the Day: Brook Lopez/BKN, Arron Afflalo/ORL, Reggie Jackson/OKC
The Fantasy Spin is here every day, around noon EST. Follow me @robdudek for breaking news and pre-game thoughts relevant to NBA daily fantasy.