Before the season began, Carmelo Anthony told the New York Observer he plans to become a free agent this summer. With every additional loss, that statement hovers over the Knicks like a dark cloud in a tornado zone, with the threat of the ultimate catastrophe – a lightning bolt and whirlwind that would destroy everything.
“I think everybody in the NBA dreams to be a free agent at least one time in their career,” Anthony said at the time. “It’s like you have an evaluation period, you know. It’s like if I’m in the gym and I have all the coaches, all the owners, all the GMs come into the gym and just evaluate everything I do. So yes, I want that experience.”
Eight games into the season, Anthony is growing frustrated during his own evaluation period with New York’s record at a middling 3-5, with four straight home losses.
“Any time you’re not doing it (winning) at home it gets a little frustrating,” Anthony said after New York’s nationally televised home loss to Houston.
It was especially frustrating for Anthony after putting the Knicks on his back while scoring a season-high 45 of the team’s 106 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and logging 44 minutes.
Anthony remains the only player in the league to lead his team in scoring every game; his 45 points were the most by any NBA player so far this season.
Anthony is also averaging a career-high 40.8 minutes and 8.5 rebounds to start the season. Those extra minutes and poundings down low – along with his usual nightly scoring burden – will gradually take a toll on Anthony, who suffered a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder during the 2013 playoffs.
“I’m at a loss for words right now,” said Anthony. “We have to move forward, keep getting better and stick together. That’s the most important thing.”
While Anthony is pledging unity in the locker room now, the real question is whether he will pledge that same unity after the season if the Knicks continue to struggle. I pegged them as the fifth-best team in the East in my Knicks preview. Maybe I was being too generous.
“Last year we were a great team at home and it seems like so far this season we’re better on the road than we are at home. So we want to take care of that,” said Anthony.
Last season, the Knicks were significantly better. They had a 7-1 overall record at this time and were considered a championship contender. Now, the team has a losing record and has regressed while struggling to find chemistry thanks to J.R. Smith’s five-game suspension and Tyson Chandler’s injury that will sideline him for a minimum of one-fourth of the season.
“You’ve got all new faces, seven new faces. Losing Tyson early, that hurts a little bit and not having J.R., chemistry is a little off-balance right now,” coach Mike Woodson said. “We don’t have the chemistry that we had early in the year. We’re trying to put it together.”
The longer the Knicks take to put it together, the more Anthony’s frustration will grow. Anything less than a return to the Eastern Conference semifinals would be a setback for the organization and to Anthony’s quest to win his first championship.
The task seems daunting considering the Knicks lost all the veteran leadership that lectured the team how to win close games and stay together in the locker room. Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace, Kurt Thomas and Marcus Camby all are gone.
Meanwhile, the competition is stiffer than ever in the Eastern Conference.
The two-time defending champion Miami Heat have the best player in the game in LeBron James. The Indiana Pacers are the only unbeaten team as Paul George has cemented his superstar status and Lance Stephenson has come into his own as a starter. Derrick Rose has looked explosive at times in his return for the Chicago Bulls. The Brooklyn Nets boast the deepest bench in the league, and the Detroit Pistons boast an imposing new frontcourt of Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith.
Pistons > Knicks? Who woulda thunk it?
To combat the competition’s improvements, New York hopes Andrea Bargnani can live up to his potential as a former top overall pick and Smith can take his game to a higher level as a starter after winning the Sixth Man Award last season.
With all the above in mind, the Knicks remain the favorites to re-sign Anthony, for numerous reasons.
The Knicks are the only team that can offer Anthony a five-year, $129 million contract. Should Anthony leave, he would be able to receive a maximum of “only” $96 million over four years.
Anthony also has the backing of owner James Dolan, who moved Heaven and Earth – figuratively – to land him in a trade. Dolan values stars, and Anthony – born in Brooklyn – is the hometown franchise player that Stephon Marbury never became.
Dolan will do anything to avoid losing his prized franchise player. Both Mike D’Antoni and Jeremy Lin can attest to what happens when you don’t fit Anthony’s “Melo Ball” style of isolation play.
The only team that can remotely compete with the Knicks for Anthony is the Los Angeles Lakers.
Los Angeles is a similar large market and provides many opportunities for his wife, Lala, in Hollywood.
On the court, the Lakers are expected to re-sign Kobe Bryant and still have cap space for another max contract. This would allow Anthony to become Bryant’s sidekick and chase a championship with the greatest active winner in the league. However, they are not an ideal fit since both dominate the basketball and have alpha dog mentalities.
As long as the Knicks “figure it out” as Anthony has said during this tough stretch and don’t take a step back in the playoffs, the smart money says he will be back in New York for years to come. Knicks fans will have to sweat out a recruitment period in July, but I don’t believe Anthony will pass up the chance to be possibly the highest-paid player in the league and remain the franchise player of his hometown team.
Should the Knicks’ current core fail to win a title during this season or next, the team has only $13 million committed on the books in the summer of 2015, allowing the team to build around Anthony for one more title run.
If – and that’s becoming a bigger if – he stays.
Michael Scotto is a Sheridan Hoops NBA columnist. You can follow him on Twitter.
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