Portland Trail Blazers
If you’re asking me whether or not I believe the Trail Blazers will continue to win games, the answer is yes. The starting five ranked in the top 10 in virtually every major statistical category in 2012-13, but the bench was so atrocious (18.5 points) that it didn’t matter.
With an improved second unit (24.0 points), Portland is the real deal this season.
Despite all this, there are concerning numbers for the Blazers (23-5). Ranking first in scoring, fourth in rebounding and fifth in assists is encouraging enough for me to believe, but that isn’t the whole story.
Portland relies heavily on the 3-pointer, struggles defensively, remains below average in second unit scoring and lacks the most important thing it needs to acquire: frontcourt depth.
LaMarcus Aldridge is a front-runner for MVP after two months, but he is also 28 with a history of injuries. He has managed to stay healthy in recent seasons, but LA underwent hip surgery in 2012 and suffered a hip flexor strain as recently as October 2013.
If he goes down, so do Portland’s championship aspirations.
Robin Lopez has played very well, but he has never averaged more than 11.3 points. Second-year bigs Thomas Robinson and Meyers Leonard have upside, but both have struggled to adjust to the pace of the NBA.
Furthermore, the Blazers are 25th in percentage of points off 2-pointers and dead last with an atrocious 32.8 percent of their points in the paint, per NBA.com. Those numbers are quite concerning considering Aldridge is averaging 23.1 points and hasn’t made a single 3-pointer.
Take him away and you lose roughly one-third of Portland’s offense from inside the arc.
As it stands, Aldridge is scoring 19.2 of his 23.1 points on 2-pointers. That’s 17.7 percent of Portland’s scoring as well as 32.2 percent of its total points off 2-pointers.
Fortunately, Aldridge is healthy and the Blazers are making an NBA-best 10.1 3-pointers on a league-high .405 shooting. Unfortunately, Portland is 24th in percentage of 3-pointers via assist, which means that they rely heavily on pull-up jumpers.
As for the red-hot Damian Lillard, he is still shooting just .401 on 2-pointers. He has been turning things around, but Portland’s dependency on the 3-ball is clear and undeniable.
Defensively, it’s not much better.
Portland ranks 22nd in scoring defense and is dead last in points allowed in the paint at an obscene 48.0. When the game slows down in the playoffs – as it always does – Portland could be exposed.
Just don’t write the Blazers off too early. This team has proven its merit already.