There are three days left until the trade deadline, the best Thursday of the season, no matter what TNT might say. Folks stay glued to their Twitter feeds awaiting word of who is heading where, with 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. ET the most riveting two hours of the entire season.
This season, with so many weak Eastern Conference teams trying to add a difference maker that would allow them to compete with the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers, and with the Western Conference race basically a nine-team affair, there is a strong desire to get better immediately among at least half of the teams in the league.
Does that mean that 15 teams will be involved in trades? Heck no. That only happens on draft night.
But there will be a bunch of deals that go down – I am placing the over/under at 6 1/2) – and there could be a blockbuster or two if Rajon Rondo and Pau Gasol are dealt.
Based upon conversations with agents and front office personnel from around the league, I have put together a list of the Ten Players Most Likely to be Traded. I will be more shocked than anyone if all 10 get dealt, but these are the names I am hearing thrown around. If suitable deals can be found, expect a majority of them to be wearing new uniforms by the weekend.
1. ANDRE MILLER, G, NUGGETS. His exile is expected to end Tuesday night against Phoenix, and it would be a shocker if he got on the team charter afterward for the flight to Milwaukee for a Thursday night game. There are several teams trying to add a quality backup point guard for their playoff runs, and the two teams I am hearing are hottest for Miller are the Timberwolves (who could offer J.J. Barea) and the Wizards (who could offer Martell Webster). If it comes down to those two teams, the front office willing to sacrifice the best draft pick along with Barea or Webster would emerge the winner.
Miller had been in exile since getting into a spat with coach Brian Shaw when a DNP-CD against Philadelphia on Dec. 9 ended his streak of 239 consecutive games. His contract for next season contains only a $2 million guarantee.
2. CHRIS KAMAN, C, LA LAKERS. There hasn’t been a showcase anywhere in the league to match what the Lakers have been doing with Kaman, knowing that there are a heck of a lot of teams in need of an extra center who can score and rebound efficiently, even if he is a bit flighty.
After logging seven consecutive DNP-CDs, Kaman has been a virtual beast for the worst team in the West, posting three consecutive double-doubles and logging an average of 36 minutes in El Lay’s final two games before the All-Star break.
Kaman has a trade-friendly salary of $3.18 million, which means he can be dealt for a player on a rookie salary scale. Mitch Kupchak will also want a draft pick in return, and he is almost certain to get one for the 10-year veteran. Where would he be the biggest difference-maker? I’d say with the New York Knicks.
3. SPENCER HAWES, F-C, PHILADELPHIA. A rare commodity – a stretch 5. You can use him underneath, you can put him out on the perimeter to open up the middle for a dominant big (yes, I am thinking Houston, too), and you can do a deal with the Sixers without having to match salaries because Philly is $10.8 million below the salary cap – and $5 million below the salary floor – the minimum a team must pay in salaries. (If GM Sam Hinkie fails to reach the floor, he will need to cut a check to the Players Association).
Hawes also is on an expiring deal and will be worth more than Philly will be willing to pay when he becomes unrestricted this summer.
Despite Rockets GM Daryl Morey’s stance that Omer Asik isn’t going anywhere, an Asik-Hawes trade makes a ton of sense for both teams. Philly gets a player who can spell Nerlens Noel next season, while Houston gets a backup for Dwight Howard who can actually play alongside him – which was the original plan for Asik – and give Houston another shooter to play with Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin and James Harden.
4. ERIC GORDON, G, PELICANS. Yes, it would be a bit of an understatement to say Gordon has failed to live up to his four-year, $58 million contract – the one he signed with Phoenix two years ago and begged New Orleans not to match. Gordon is not getting precipitously close to entering the realm of a “dead money” player – think namesake Ben Gordon of the Bobcats – but he is still a young gunner with a ton of talent who can be a 20-point per game scorer in the right system.
Since the Pelicans are going to lose their draft pick to Philadelphia unless it falls in the top five, GM Dell Demps would love to restock that cupboard in exchange for an expiring contract and a No. 1 pick that would fall in the late teens or high 20s.
Detroit fits that bill. The Pistons are dying for a 3-point shooter to add to their starting core of Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings. And though they cannot offer a 2014 first-round pick (they owe that to Charlotte), they could offer a pick swap in 2015 or 2016 along with the expiring deal of Charlie Villanueva and a throw-in with some upside, such as Kyle Singler.
5. GLEN DAVIS, F, MAGIC. The last time we published a Most Likely to be Traded Column, Davis was part of a dual entry along with Jameer Nelson.
But there are plenty of seasoned PGs out there, including a bunch whose Chinese league seasons are ending — a group that includes Sebastian Telfair and Delonte West — which may make it more difficult to find a taker for Nelson. Then again, GM Rob Hennigan was able to get Tobias Harris for J.J. Redick at the deadline last year, and he was the only GM who emerged a winner from the Dwight Howard blockbuster of two years ago.
No team needs an upgrade at point more than the New York Knicks, but would GM Steve Mills sacrifice Iman Shumpert or Tim Hardaway Jr. for a player past his prime who still will get beaten on defense by younger, speedier guards? That’s same the problem they have with current PGs Ray Felton and Pablo Prigioni. My answer is this: When it comes to making bad trades, never underestimate the Knicks.
As for Davis, I’ll leave you with a quote from an Eastern Conference executive: “They’ve been trying like crazy to trade him for two years.”
6. JIMMER FREDETTE, G, KINGS: Yes, we all had high hopes for the young man from Glens Falls, N.Y. who came out of his collegiate career at BYU as the leading NCAA Division I scorer while earning every major National Player of the Year honor, including the Wooden Award, the Naismith Award, the Adolph Rupp Trophy and the Oscar Robertson Trophy.
Since then, he has been only slightly better that Joe Alexander and Adam Morrison, two other members of the Caucasian persuasion for whom great things were predicted.
The 10th overall pick of the 2011 draft is on an expiring $2.44 million contract, so he won’t bring much in return unless he is paired with the next guy on this list.
7. JASON THOMPSON, F, KINGS: Has a mere $19.2 million and three years remaining on his contract after this season, which is a heck of a lot of dead money unless rigor mortis can be reversed. Thompson has not scored 20 points in a game this season despite playing an average of nearly 26 minutes and has reached double figures in rebounds a mere 13 times.
Under new owner Vivek Ranadive, the Kings have shown their eagerness to make moves, having executed two in-season trades already. And there are times when they play like a playoff caliber team — especially when Rudy Gay gets things going.
But they are going to have a hard time pulling off more than a garbage-for-garbage trade, so I’ll go out on a limb here and predict that Fredette and Thompson will end up in Boston for Brandon Bass and assorted other refuse. Hey, if anybody is going to take on a reclamation project out of BYU, it is Danny Ainge.
8. KRIS HUMPHRIES, F, CELTICS: On an expiring $12 million contract, the former Mr. Kardashian is a proven commodity in this league, where a guy who can consistently get you double figures in rebounds is nothing to poke fun at.
So who needs a rebounder?
The five worst rebounding teams are Miami, Dallas, Brooklyn, Atlanta and New York – all teams that will be in the playoffs or aspire to be there. Which of those teams has a throwaway player to make the salaries match? None of them.
That is why any trade involving Humphries would likely go through Philadelphia, which has the cap space to absorb a contract of Humphries’ size in an uneven trade, salary-wise. And such a deal might even involve the next guy on this list.
9. THADDEUS YOUNG, F, 76ERS: If anyone had told you prior to the season that this guy was a stretch 4, you would have laughed him out of the room.
But Young, a six-year veteran who was 2-for-12 from long distance over the previous two seasons, is 48-for-149 from downtown this season – a not-too-shabby .322.
His contract is keeping the Sixers from wanting to keep him, as he is owed $19.4 million over the next two seasons. And with Hinkie seemingly wanting to rid the NBA’s worst team not from Milwaukee of every player signed or acquired in the Rod Thorn Era, Young is being shopped heavily. I still think he is a nice fit for the Rockets in a deal for Asik – although there would be a gaping hole in the middle behind Dwight Howard unless Hawes was included as well.
10. RAJON RONDO, G, CELTICS: Given the amount of Twitter traffic earlier this week saying Ainge is seeking at least two first-round picks in any deal for his best asset, we will go with the where-there’s-smoke-there’s-fire adage.
To me, Rondo is the type of player you build around. But I am not the guy calling the shots for the Celtics.
Rondo’s attitude might scare off a few teams, but not many of them. And if there was one team where Rondo would put a title contender over the top, it would be the Indiana Pacers, who could trade Danny Granger’s expiring contract and give Ainge three unprotected picks in 2016, 2018 and 2020 (their 2014 pick is going to Phoenix as part of the Luis Scola acquisition.)
But again, since I feel the Celtics are better off keeping their floor general for the remainder of his career, I’m putting him at the bottom of this list because I think the nine guys above him have a better chance of being moved.
(RELATED: IS THIS THE YEAR A DEADLINE TRADE WILL IMPACT CHAMPIONSHIP?)
Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.