Nowitzki, Conley, Dragic, Stoudemire key for NBA Teams Chasing Final Playoff Spots

Memphis Grizzlies- Mike Conley

Among the four teams still fighting for three playoff spots in the Western Conference, Memphis is the only team without a record above .500 over their last 10 games. Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley recently said that the team is still figuring things out here in early April, which is a pretty large red flag.

The same “figuring out” phase can be said for the player as well. Conley is off the a poor start to the month of April, and frankly, Conley hasn’t been very good since the All-Star break, as you’ll see in the following charts:

Conley	Minutes	FG %	3 FG %	Points	Assists	FT %	O Rating
Before Break	34.5	45.8	36.9	18	6.3	84.1	115
After Break	31.4	41.6	34.4	15.7	5.3	79.6	105

Conley’s midseason injury has to be taken into consideration, but his field goal percentage has dipped over four percentage points and he’s scoring 10 fewer points per 100 possessions for a team that already scores the second fewest points per game in the Western Conference. After shooting just 30.6 percent from the field in five February games, Conley is back to his old tricks with a 38.6  FG % in three April games. With high scoring teams Miami, Phoenix and Dallas still left on the schedule, now might be a good time for Conley to snap out of his little funk.

Phoenix Suns- Goran Dragic

Dragic maintained his incredible play even with Eric Bledsoe injured for a large chunk of the season, and Dragic still maintained his excellence after Bledsoe’s return. After a 10-6 March, can Dragic finish the job over the the last few games and help clinch a Phoenix playoff berth that seemed laughably impossible just five months ago?

Look at Dragic’s April splits. It’s just three games, but he’s shot 40.8% from the floor and 25 percent from three and is costing the Suns four points per 100 possessions while on the floor. Dragic scores 10 more points per 100 possessions in wins (124) than losses (114), and with games at Dallas on Saturday and home to Memphis on Monday, the Suns could use the good Dragic for the last week of the regular season.

Golden State Warriors- Draymond Green

Despite the national hype of the Warriors being this 3-point shooting oriented team, Golden State wins its games on the defensive end. The Dubs are eighth in the league in scoring defense and fourth in defensive rating. And if Mark Jackson’s team wants to win with defense, playing Draymond Green a hell of a lot more is a very good way to go.

Golden State is 7-3 when Green is in the starting lineup, and they get to replace David Lee (3.4 defensive win shares in 2,201 minutes played) with Green (3.6 defensive win shares in 1,678 minutes played). Green is logging 32 minutes per game as a starter opposed to 20.3 per game off the bench, while his points allowed per 100 minutes has only risen from 98 to 99. He’s 5th in the league in defensive rating, with teammate Andrew Bogut second in the league. So why not Green and Bogut playing more together?

In games Green has started, Golden State has defeated opponents by an average of 108.4 to 97.7, compared to their 103.6 to 98.8 season average. One point per game may not seem that much, but the Warriors had four postseason games last year decided by five points or fewer. Why not have the best defensive lineup in longer in the most crucial games?

Dallas Mavericks- Dirk Nowitzki

This sure seems obvious, but when Nowitzki struggled, the Mavs went just 8-6 in March. That may be a good record out East, but it’s quite lackluster in the Western Conference. Golden State went 9-5 in March, Memphis went 12-5 and Phoenix went 10-6. As the following charts show, Dirk’s relatively subpar March cost Dallas dearly.

Nowitzki	Games Over .500	Minutes	FG %	3 FG %	Points	Rebounds	O Rating	Net Rating
February	6	30.7	52.7	41.8	20.2	5.3	128	18
March	2	33.6	46.9	30.8	21	6.7	110	1
April	3	35	59.3	57.7	24.4	7.6	139	30

Nowitzki’s March field goal percentage decreased by nearly six percentage points, and his 3-point accuracy was down 11 percentage points. His points scored per 100 possessions and net rating dropped significantly, which simply cannot happen over the next week if the Mavs want to avoid the lottery.

Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You should follow him on Twitter.