DraftStreet Fantasy Spin, April 30, 2014: Gotta Love the Hedge

Well, so much for yesterday’s theory — that the Clippers would be so wiped out from the Donald Sterling scandal, it would be a good night to go hard on the Warriors.

But I am getting smarter as I move through my second week of fantasy writing (don’t ask). Understanding that my predictions are sometimes light years off, I fielded a hedge team in the $5 entry league, stocking it with Clippers.

And that team, with Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan, is poised to finish in the money — maybe even in first place — after tonight’s games have been played.

Lesson of the day: Don’t be afraid to be wrong. In fact, be prepared for it.

Going into tonight’s three games, my team of Paul, Jordan, Griffin, Tayshaun Prince, Damian Lillard, DeMarDeRozan, Boris Diaw and Mirza Teletovic sits in 60th place out of 400 entrants. Of the teams with four man-games remaining, only three entries have higher point totals, and none of them have a dynamic duo waiting in the wings like mine with DeRozan and Lillard.

This was a $5 entry league, and first prize is worth $480 (2nd is $300, and third is $210). Yes, I will need something decent out of both Diaw and Teletovic, but it does not need to be too substantial given the monster numbers put up Tuesday night by Jordan and Paul.

How will this affect my planning for tonight’s Wednesday-Thursday leagues? Well, I’d say a second hedge is in order, eh?

Let’s have a look at some of the prices for the Wednesday-Thursday leagues.

DraftStreet	Price
Stars	Over $19,000
LaMarcus Aldridge	$22,960
Kevin Durant	$21,902
Dwight Howard	$20,246
Blake Griffin	$19,635
James Harden	$19,245
Value Plays	Under $9,000
Patrick Beverley	$8,804
Devin Harris	$8,520
Jose Calderon	$8,479
Kendrick Perkins	$5,685
Danny Green	$5,588

Green is an interesting play because he is so overdo for a breakout game. Let’s not forget that this guy was the star of Games 1 through 4 of the NBA Finals last season, and somebody always steps up for the Spurs on a night to night basis. and yes, it is maddening to try to figure out who that guy will be each night. Gregg Popovich and his players are bad fits for fantasy basketball, and my advice — usually — is to stay away from them.

But if you are going to take a flier on them, Green is worth the gamble at some point.

I also have Kendrick Perkins listed among my value players, and it is indeed a stretch to use the words “value” and “Perkins” in the same sentence.

But he is priced more than $2,000 lower than Roy Hibbert, whose disappearing act for the Pacers is nothing short of astonishing. If Frank Vogel starts him again tonight, I give up on Frank Vogel.

I caution everyone to stay away from the Pacers and to stay away from the Hawks. Atlanta’s contributors run too hot and cold, and although Paul Millsap is quite reliable, he NEVER has a monster game that justifies his always-high price.

I am going to load up again on members of the Golden State Warriors, anticipating a big bounce back game from them Thursday night. That means my Wednesday-Thursday teams will not be judgeable until late Thursday night, and my Thursday-Friday teams will also probably be chock full of Warriors (and Clippers, if I hedge again).

The one hedge I am certain I will make is selecting Durant, despite his price, on one of my $11 entry fee leagues; and selecting Tony Allen, who has been defending Durant brilliantly, on the other $11 team. On Team Durant, I was able to get him, Dwight Howard and Stephen Curry by bottom feeding on Terrence Ross and Tayshaun Prince, who both start and were both priced below $4,000. On Team Allen, I took seven players priced between $11,000 and $16,000 and went with Patty Mills ($5,255) as my hunch scrub because of Tony Parker’s sprained ankle.

For those needing a primer on DraftStreet’s rules, here you go:

You pick three guards, three forwards, one center and one utility player using a salary cap of $100,000, and then you root for them to fill up the box score. You can sign up here, or by clicking the banner at the top of this post.)

Steals and blocks are worth 2 points. Rebounds are worth 1.25 points. Assists are worth 1.5 points. You lose 1 point for every turnover, and you lose 0.5 points for every missed field goal attempt or missed free throw attempt.

If you make a bad pick, it will not necessarily kill you.

For instance, check out the team that won the $1,000 first prize in the $22 entry fee tournament I entered for Monday-Tuesday (I finished 80th out of 200, 44.75 points behind the winner.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see, “hunta512” made the mistake of selecting Pero Antic as his center, and he even survived an off night from Taj Gibson that was cut short when he turned his ankle early in the fourth quarter against Washington.

His key picks were Mike Miller at $4,870 and Andre Iguodala at $8,289.

Also, “hunta512” had what I consider a very low score — 256.75 — to walk away with $1,000 in cash.

But, hey, the grand is his — and the next grand could be yours if you pick astutely.

Aside from the Clipper-heavy team I wrote about already, I have a Warrior-heavy team that is in contention for the money, too, sitting in 181st place. (See, my pre-hedge strategy was not 100 percent flawed.)

A monster game from Howard is necessary for this entry to finish in the money, but Howard is certainly capable of coming through.

I’ll need productive nights from Pierce and Amir Johnson, too, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that both will be beasts. Pierce seems to play better on the road, and Johnson puts up better numbers in Canada but can be an excruciating hit-or-miss prospect.

But you know what? That is part of the fun in playing in these two-night leagues.

During the regular season, all the leagues last one night only. Heck, that’s why they call it “Daily Fantasy Leagues” at DraftStreet.

These postseason two-night leagues give you a little added suspense, which doubles the fun.

And speaking of double, DraftStreet offers double-up leagues in which you either enter a smaller field or go head-to-head against another player. For all of you heavy hitters, you can put $2,100 into play in a head-to-head league.

For those not comfortable putting two grand into play, there are leagues with entry fees including $2, $5, $11, $22, $55 and $109.  So if you are just signing up for the first time, you can wade into the water slowly. Again, click here to sign up, and I wish you the best of luck. I’ll be back tomorrow with another update, hopefully a happy one. Enjoy the games tonight.