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There is no better way for a player to prove his worth than by coming through in a Game 7. And conversely, there is no better way for a player to show his lack of value that by coming up empty when both teams are facing a win-or-go home game.
So in choosing players for DraftStreet’s two-day contests for Saturday and Sunday featuring five Game 7s, you need to find Mr. Clutch somewhere.
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My advice is to make Kevin Durant that guy, and I have selected him on three of the four teams I have in action for the Saturday-Sunday leagues. Put it this way: I gave the guy my MVP vote, so I expect he’ll drop somewhere between 32 and 42 points on a Memphis Grizzlies team that will not have Zach Randolph. Durant is the only guy, aside from Tony Parker, who I consider a sure thing.
Drafting strategy will be key today as you build your teams.
Do you want to risk a ton of money on a player who will be competing on the road? Do you want to play the Grizzlies guessing game regarding who will get Randolph’s 60 minutes? Who do YOU consider a sure thing?
And who do YOU consider a worthy risk? If you answered Roy Hibbert, you are a brave soul. If you answered Alan Anderson or DeJuan Blair, I am with you — even though both will be playing on the road.
Here is a series-by-series breakdown of who I like and don’t like in the 5 Game 7s.
But first, the rules …
You pick three guards, three forwards, one center and one utility player using a salary cap of $100,000, and then you root for them to fill up the box score. You can sign up here.
Steals and blocks are worth 2 points. Rebounds are worth 1.25 points. Assists are worth 1.5 points. You lose 1 point for every turnover, and you lose 0.5 points for every missed field goal attempt or missed free throw attempt.
ATLANTA AT INDIANA, 5:30 p.m. EDT: Only two guys are possibilities for me here — Lance Stephenson and Paul Millsap. I jumped off the Paul George buss long ago, and I am not going to try to read Frank Vogel’s mind regarding the appropriate minutes for Hibbert and Luis Scola, both of whom have stunk in this series. Jeff Teague is a tempting pick, but I don’t like him playing on the road in a game the Hawks should lose.
Of all the value plays I have listed below, I will say this: It is unusual, to say the least, to have two starting centers at the bottom of that list, along with a starting point guard. But if you want to run the risk of choosing any of these players, you are a braver man than me. Gun to my head and I have to pick one of them? I’ll go with C.J. Watson.
| DraftStreet | Price |
| PLAYER | $$$ |
| Paul George | $19,910 |
| Paul Millsap | $16,323 |
| Jeff Teague | $14,482 |
| David West | $14,438 |
| Lance Stephenson | $12,799 |
| Value Plays? | Under $9,000 |
| George Hill | $9,593 |
| C.J. Watson | $7,376 |
| Lou Williams | $7,070 |
| Roy Hibbert | $5,835 |
| Pero Antic | $4,546 |
MEMPHIS AT OKLAHOMA CITY, 8 p.m. EDT
As mentioned above, it is a guessing games as to who will get Randolph’s minutes at a position where the Grizzlies have no depth. If could be Ed Davis. It could be James Johnson. Heck, it could be Mike Miller. But no matter who it is, they are going to be overmatched by Serge Ibaka, who is as important to me, IMHO, as Durant.
Among other guys, there is a risk of getting someone who runs awfully hot-and-cold (Mike Conley, Russell Westbrook) or someone who might be overtaxed by the workload of carrying his team (Marc Gasol). I picked the Grizzlies in this series, but this one could be a blowout loss for Memphis given Randolph’s suspension. The Grizzlies are 9-point underdogs.
| DraftStreet | Price |
| PLAYER | $$$ |
| Kevin Durant | $21,583 |
| Russell Westbrook | $18,922 |
| Marc Gasol | $15,240 |
| Serge Ibaka | $15,139 |
| Tony Allen | $11,142 |
| Value Plays? | Under $9,000 |
| Ed Davis | $7,490 |
| Mike Miller | $7,007 |
| James Johnson | $6,255 |
| Derek Fisher | $3,913 |
| Tayshaun Prince | $3,716 |
Tell you what: There is a chance that Dave Joerger will rely on Prince more than he otherwise would, because Prince at least has the experience of playing in Game 7s before. But let’s face it … Davis and Johnson are dartboard material, too, and if you are going to take a flyer on who will be Randolph’s replacement, the risk on Prince is half of what it is on someone else. Also, Fisher could be a sneaky good play. Again, coaches tend to turn to guys who have been in Game 7s before.
For what it is worth, I cannot emphasize enough how valuable Ibaka should be in this game. He could have a double-double just off his offensive rebounding production by the end of the first half.
GOLDEN STATE AT L.A. CLIPPERS, 10:30 p.m., EDT
The over/under for this game is 208 1/2, making it by far the highest-scoring game anticipated. So it becomes a question of where those points are going o come from … because you know they are going to come.
DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are all priced nicely, and I recommend taking all three of them if you are submitting multiple entries (don’t forget to hedge by building a team loaded with Warriors, to). Stephen Curry could be a tremendous play if he is able to come through on the road, and David Lee, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala are all big time hit-or-miss guys. Of the three, I’d trust Lee the most — although he runs the risk of foul trouble if he has to pitch in defending Jordan.
| DraftStreet | Price |
| PLAYER | $$$ |
| Blake Griffin | $19,218 |
| Stephen Curry | $18,157 |
| Chris Paul | $18,124 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $17,756 |
| Andre Iguodala | $12,117 |
| Value Plays? | Under $12,000 |
| Klay Thompson | $11,155 |
| Jamal Crawford | $9,895 |
| Matt Barnes | $8,483 |
| J.J. Redick | $7,891 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,646 |
Tell you what: Somebody on the Warriors is going to offer tremendous value from the low-salaried players, and it just may be Barnes — although Thompson is also a tremendous value pick at $11K and change if he is lighting it up. Same goes for Jamal Crawford, who gets en fuego from time to time and is way overdo for a monster game.
Just my opinion, but I’ll predict that the winner of the Saturday-Sunday contests (I have four teams entered in both the $5 and $2 entry-fee leagues) will have made some wise (or lucky) picks from this game.
BROOKLYN AT TORONTO, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
Not a lot of Game 7 experience here unless you count Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, who played in these games all the time when they were with Boston. If anybody is going t have ice water in their veins, it is these two guys. But that being said, is either a worthy risk given how paltry their numbers have been for the most part in this series?
I consider Kyle Lowry the safe pick in this game despite his horrid Game 6 outing. This is a guy who should be the No. 2 free agent on the market this summer (behind Carmelo Anthony), and I fully expect him to enhance his value going against a gimpy Deron Williams (sprained ankle).
Nobody in this game is carrying a stud price tag.
| DraftStreet | Price |
| PLAYER | $$$ |
| Kyle Lowry | $14,979 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $14,798 |
| Deron Williams | $13,049 |
| Joe Johnson | $11,980 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $10,934 |
| Value Plays? | Under $9,000 |
| Andray Blatche | $8,376 |
| Kevin Garnett | $7,516 |
| Mirza Teletovic | $7,240 |
| Terrence Ross | $6,014 |
| Alan Anderson | $5,337 |
Once again, we have a game that will have a major player who is a value pick. My advice is to guess that it will be Anderson, who replaced Shaun Livingston in the starting lineup for Game 6 and who could log heavy minutes if Kidd shortens his rotation. Blatche had a particularly inspired Game 6 and plays center, where there is risk (and potential value) all around.
Among the higher-priced players, Johnson is a safe pick because Jason Kidd will run everything he can through him — especially if the ankle is troubling D-Will. Also, if Garnett has something substantial left in the talk, I would not be surprised to see Kidd lean heavily on him. This is why the Nets got him, right?
Again, a lot of fantasy value potentially available.
DALLAS AT SAN ANTONIO, 3:30 p.m. EDT
I picked a hedge team comprised heavily of participants in this game just to be certain that when 5 p.m. Sunday rolls around, I will still have a horse in the race even if my other four teams have failed.
The only two Dallas players I trust are Dirk Nowitzki and DeJuan Blair. One carries a hefty price, sort of, and the other does not. On the San Antonio side of the ledger, you can really never go wrong with Tony Parker. Maybe with Tim Duncan, but never with Parker. At center, Tiago Splitter had a monster Game 5 and a monster Game 6. He got another one? Or will he find a bunch of pine time as Gregg Popovich goes with Boris Diaw because he does a nice job defending Dirk. Hard to predict, but the latter possibility would not surprise me. Diaw is simple a better two-way player (and carries a much cheaper price tag).
| DraftStreet | Price |
| PLAYER | $$$ |
| Tim Duncan | $15,305 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $14,735 |
| Monta Ellis | $13,229 |
| Kahwi Leonard | $12,975 |
| Tony Parker | $12,962 |
| Value Plays? | Under $9,000 |
| Jose Calderon | $8,796 |
| Kevin Garnett | $7,516 |
| Mirza Teletovic | $7,240 |
| Terrence Ross | $6,014 |
| Alan Anderson | $5,337 |
Damn, that price on Parker is way too low. Pop is going to ride him like crazy. Duncan is way too much of a risk at that number. He may get to the foul line a bunch, but not if Joey Crawford is working the game. If you’ve made it all the way down to this section of the story, I will give the strongest advice I’ve ever given since taking over this fantasy writer gig less than two weeks ago: Take Parker. Build your team around him if you have to. OK?
Calderon has a nice price, and I’d imagine Rick Carlisle will want to have him out there cuz he runs the offense smoothly and is a dead-eye 3-point and free throw shooter. But with Monta Ellis on this team, you never quite know. Ellis was so good in Game 6 that he is riding a wave of confidence coming into this game. IMHO, he is too risky of a play. (Usually I am dead wrong on these things, FWIW).
So there you have it, five Game 7s broken down for fantasy purposes.
I’ll spare you the details of my lack of success in the Wednesday-Thursday leagues and the Thursday-Friday leagues, other than to tell you that I cashed modestly as I finished 19th out of 440 in the $5 league and 37th out of 875 in the $2 league. (It was the only roster I played in multiple leagues. Today, all of my teams are copied over from the $5 contest to the $2 contest.)
Here is the team that earned me a $20 prize (also shown, to the right of my team, is the winning team). As you can see, my studs and duds theory would have worked if I had not taken Belinelli. Danny Green was finally the low-priced guy to get.
Anyway, good luck to all of you. I’ll be back tomorrow with another fantasy column.