Tuesday night is one of the few night’s during the NBA calendar year that is equal parts about the present as it is about the future.
What more could we ask for?
The Miami Heat have their backs against the wall as they try to even up their Eastern Conference Finals series in Indianapolis.
But just before the Heat and Pacers tip, the NBA will hold its annual Draft Lottery to determine the first 14 picks in this June’s draft. Unlike the 2013 draft, the 2014 draft contains several top prospects, a few of which are thought to have the potential to change a franchise: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker.
Strangely though, while the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic have the three best odds at winning the lottery, the team with the best odds has not won since Cleveland landed the top pick (LeBron James) in 2013.
So much for tanking.
So while this seems to really be a crapshoot, could this actually come down to karma? Grantland’s Bill Simmons believes so:
Do your boys REALLY deserve to win the lottery? Did they handle their business the right way last season? Did they embarrass themselves with a tanking fiasco? Did they make a shady trade that inadvertently affected the playoff race? Did they do anything that made you say, “They just took a poop on their fans”? Have they been so inept for so many years that their ineptitude just shouldn’t be rewarded anymore? Did they make any aggressively stupid decisions like paying Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings $78 million combined without hiring them a strong coach, or gift-wrapping a $48.5 million extension to an injured and possibly washed-up Kobe Bryant without making sure he could still play basketball three times a week? Are they owned by someone you’d describe as “an incompetent legacy kid who’d be working in a grocery store if his dad weren’t rich” or even “possibly concussed, he should seriously get his head checked out”?
And on the flip side, are they doing everything the right way? Do they have a real plan? Did they make an honest attempt to make the playoffs? Could you describe them as “exceedingly well run” and/or “just a solid, solid organization”? Did they make one or more trades that could be described as “genuinely smart” or even “stunning in its vision and scope”? Are they a franchise that makes you say, “If Embiid/Wiggins/Jabari ends up there, they’ll take care of that guy”? Have they had bad lottery luck in the past? Are they due for a lottery break? Should the Karma Gods be saying, “We feel bad, we gotta hook those guys up”?
I won’t spoil Simmons rankings for you — but unlike Jan Hubbard, he does not think the Lakers will win it — but it is an interesting way of looking at how Tuesday’s lottery will play out. Like Simmons, ESPN’s Jay Bilas believes Joel Embiid is the best prospect and will be the top pick.
Taking a step back into the present, though, there are several stars that will be in action on Tuesday as well. Many people did not expect the Pacers to land a haymaker in Game 1 after their last three months of disarray. They’re up 1-0 on the Heat with a chance to put Miami in its first 2-0 hole in the Big-3 era.
Those Heat teams are undefeated after a loss in the playoffs together, though, and history says they will bounce back strong tonight. The Miami Herald’s Greg Cote takes a look at what they need to do:
Spoelstra is expected to start Haslem, and LeBron James gave good hint that he would much rather guard Paul George than David West.
Spoelstra, of course, remained true to form and gave nothing away.
“It doesn’t matter who we play,” Spoelstra said. “We still have an identity to get to, and we didn’t get to it no matter what lineup we had out there. Every single lineup, whether it was big or small, it was the same thing.
“They had us on our heels, and we never could consistently get to our defensive identity.”
“To be frank about it, there was a lack of detail, a lack of focus, a lack of discipline, a lack of effort,” Spoelstra said. “Put that all in a bowl, and you get a bad result.”
Quite frankly, disinterested is the wrong word, but the Heat certainly did not bring it from the opening tip in Game 1. And on the contrary, the Pacers got off to a hot start, which behind a fierce Indy crowd, helped brew confidence. The rest of history. Indy led wire to wire and was never seriously threatened.
The question is, after having a difficult time handling David West in the post, where will LeBron James be placed on defense?
“I’m a perimeter guy,” James said. “I can do a lot of things, but I made my money being a perimeter guy, and obviously from the circumstances of our team, we’re not the biggest team in the world, so I have to play big at times and guard bigger guys … so it’s challenging, but I got to do it at this point.
“I’m trying to get a trip to the Finals, so whatever it takes.”
The Pacers must bring that same “whatever it takes” mentality to have a chance to fend off Miami tonight. There’s no doubt they are going to come out with poise and confidence and try to knock the Pacers down. Indy remembers what happened in Game 3 of last years ECF, a 17-point Miami victory that caught the Pacers off guard after leaving Miami with a 1-1 split.
What type of Pacers team are we going to see Tuesday night? Indystar columnit Bob Kravitz has no idea:
Recent history suggests they can’t and they won’t. Recent history suggests they’re due for a clunker. Consistency has been an issue and prosperity, once gained, has become a temporary road block.
That said, they’re playing better, having won seven of nine playoff games in this most recent stretch. My guess is they’ll play well — not as well as they did in Game 1, when they sliced and diced the Heat’s defense — but well enough to win.
The real curiosity is how the Heat play. Their history suggests they will play one of their best games of the series. They simply don’t lose two playoff games in a row, not with the Big Three on their roster.
But this is a test for the Pacers. A big one. Can they sustain it?
It shouldn’t be surprising if the Pacers continue their strong play. They seem to have broken out of their slump and have momentum on their side. Things are starting to fall into place. And their familiarity with Miami — and a raucous home crowd — certainly won’t hurt.
The question is how they will respond when the shooting percentages, free throws and 50/50 balls even up. They all went Indy’s way in Game 1, which allowed them to build a big enough lead to put Miami away. Who will take charge in a close game?
Like Bob Kravitz, your guess is as good as mine.
Ben Baroff is a basketball journalist who blogs for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter here.