14. Marcin Gortat, C, Washington Wizards (U)
The Polish Hammer is happy in Washington, and re-signing him will be a bigger priority than re-signing Trevor Ariza. What will make things easiest for Washington is finding a taker for Martell Webster, who is owed $11 million over the next two seasons. Ernie Grunfeld may have to a attach a future first-round pick (or two) to Webster in order to find a taker. But if keeping both Gortat and Ariza is as paramount as the Wizards have said it is, they must find a way. Gortat could command $10 million a year or more on the open market.
15. Isaiah Thomas, G, Sacramento Kings (R)
His long-term future will be impacted by Rudy Gay’s short-term future. If Gay decides to opt out of the final year of his contract (no sure thing given that he has more than $19 million coming to him, and he could get squeezed on the open market), the Kings can wave goodbye and use that money to pay Thomas. But if Gay remains under contract, the Kings would become a luxury tax team by matching an offer to Thomas — whose goal before having a breakout year was to earn mid-level money. He’ll do a lot better than that after the season he just had.
16. Zach Randolph, F, Memphis Grizzlies (PO)
Still getting it done; still making teams scratch their heads. May want more long-term money than Memphis is willing to pay — especially if Pau Gasol will come aboard at a salary somewhere in the $10-12 million range. Z-Bo could have earned himself many, many millions of dollars with a strong Game 7 against the Thunder in the first round, but he instead chose to punch Steven Adams in the jaw. By mid-July, we should have a strong reading on exactly how many millions that punch is going to end up costing him. Big-time squeeze candidate if he does not exercise his option.
MAY 26 UPDATE: YAHOO Sports reports that Randolph is negotiating an extension with the Grizzlies.
17. Shaun Livingston, G, Brooklyn Nets (U)
He will be out of Brooklyn’s price range, as the Nets can only offer him the taxpayer mid-level, or about $10 million over three years. Once upon a time he was thought of as the next Magic Johnson – a tall, rangy point guard who presents matchup nightmares either on the perimeter or on post-ups. More than a half-decade removed from the career-threatening injury that mangled his knee, Livingston has been waiting a long, long time to get papered (NBA parlance for a big contract), and he is not going to miss out on his one and only chance. The Nets will miss him, as their second-half resurgence coincided with him moving into the starting lineup alongside Deron Williams.
18. Rudy Gay, F, Sacramento Kings (PO)
If I am Rudy’s agent, I tell him there is no way on earth he is giving up a guaranteed $19.3 million to enter a free agent landscape in which he might end up getting half of that. Nobody’s stock has fallen more than Gay’s. When the last two teams you played for have unqualified success immediately after your departure, you are not what is known as a value commodity. You get known as a guy who is simply not worth the money teams somehow keep lining up to pay, a latter day Rashard Lewis. Let’s face it, high-volume 40 percent shooters are not hard to find. But they can be hard to get rid of — Gay’s recent past notwithstanding.
19. Greivis Vasquez, G, Toronto Raptors (R)
With the Raptors all-in to retain Kyle Lowry, they will likely lose Vazquez because you only need one starting-caliber point guard, and a second — especially at a high salary — is a waste of cap space. Everyone in the NBA knows that, which is why Vazquez should receive a ton of attention over the first couple days of July. But, if the Raptors feel they are going to lose Lowry, they will not hesitate to match any offer to this Venezuelan spark plug. Where things could get tricky is if Lowry is wavering and Vazquez has already signed an offer sheet.
20. Trevor Ariza, F, Washington Wizards (U)
Everybody needs one; not everybody has one. But a glue guy who can defend multiple positions and knock down 3-pointers with consistency is a valued commodity, and few do it better than Ariza, who often times looked like the best player on the floor for the Wizards during their run to the second round of the playoffs. Again, Ariza’s future in Washington is heavily dependent upon whether the front office can move Martell Webster’s contract. If not, Ariza may not be worth the cost of becoming a luxury tax team. This will be a very interesting test case of whether the luxury tax is too punitive.
21. Chris Andersen, C, Miami Heat (PO)
Whether you call him Birdman or Birdzilla, you have to call him a key component in the Heat’s ascendance to one of the elite teams of all time. He has come a long way since snorting himself out of the league with a drug suspension and then being amnestied by the Denver Nuggets. He has said he wants to remain in Miami, and he has made enough money to turn down more lucrative offers elsewhere if he decides not to pick up his option. But again, if the Big Three is broken up, all bets are off. And remember … centers always get paid in free agency. It is known as the Erick Dampier rule.
22. Andray Blatche, F/C, Brooklyn Nets (PO)
Another guy who was once amnestied but came back and proved himself to be a productive member of a very good team. The thing with Blatche, as anyone who spent any time around the Nets last season can attest, is that you never quite know when he is going to show up and when he is going to take a night off. He NEVER has two good games in a row; and his level of desire will always be questioned until he silences his critics with some consistency. The jury is still out on whether we will ever see that.
23. Patty Mills, G, San Antonio Spurs (U)
Is worth more money-wise to somebody else, although the Spurs would love to keep him. But with what Mills will command on the open market, they will have to turn over the backup reins behind Tony Parker to Cory Joseph. Speedy point guards — especially speedy point guards who have spent three seasons under Gregg Popovich’s tutelage — are a scarce commodity, and somebody could be getting themselves a real bargain if they ink Mills to a mid-level deal. Belongs in everyone’s Top 25 — even though he can be found some places at No. 60.
24. P.J. Tucker, F, Phoenix Suns (U)
A poor man’s Trevor Ariza. But the thing with Tucker is that he is several years younger and will be around much longer. Teams with the mid-level available who do not make it available to Tucker are idiots. Every team needs someone who can defend the opponent’s best player, but there just aren’t enough Tony Allens to go around. Tucker will have a job in the Association for a long, long time because of his on-the-ball defensive abilities, and whoever gets this guy will emerge from the summer a big-time winner. (Yes, I am a fan of his).
25. Avery Bradley, G, Boston Celtics (R)
If guys start getting paid because of their defensive prowess, then Bradley stands to make his money this summer. But teams also tend to put a lot of weight on offensive numbers, and Bradley did not exactly kill it last season for a struggling Celtics team. But on this Web site, you get ranked a little higher if you get the job done on both ends, and if your intangibles are invisible to the naked eye. He beats out a lot of bigger names for this 25th spot, including former teammate Paul Pierce (who is cooked, IMHO).
The next 25:
Jeff Adrien, F, Milwaukee; Spencer Hawes, C, Cleveland; Darren Collison, G, LA Clippers; Shawn Marion, F, Dallas; Vince Carter, F, Dallas; Evan Turner, F, Indiana; Jordan Hill, F; LA Lakers; Nick Young, G, LA Lakers; Channing Frye, F; Phoenix; Josh McRoberts, F, Charlotte; Nate Robinson, G, Denver; Boris Diaw, F, San Antonio; Mario Chalmers, G, Miami; Kris Humphries, F, Boston; D.J. Augustin, G, Chicago; Devin Harris, G, Dallas; Patrick Patterson, F, Toronto; Andrew Bynum, C, Indiana; Mike Scott, F, Atlanta; Paul Pierce, F, Brooklyn; Al-Farouq Aminu, F; New Orleans; Chris Kaman, C, LA Lakers; Jason Smith, C, New Orleans; Aaron Brooks, G, Denver; Francisco Garcia, F, Houston.
Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor in chief of SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.
Too much to comment on. Interesting write up.
1. LeBron’s status for this summer could depend on how badly Heat loses to Spurs. If close, I doubt he leaves. Too bad Love and LeBron won’t get together and plot a move to CLE. Likely he waits another season, but still has CLE in his sights for next season. The big question with CLE, is why they risk Love leaving at end of season, without at least a verbal guarantee.
2. I can’t see Melo resisting clear opportunity to go to CHI. And Bull’s Don’t have to do anything creative or a S&T as some think, as long as Melo is willing to take about 19 M to start. Amnesty Boozer and find a team that can absorb Dunleavy’s attractive salary.
If Bulls are a winner, Melo could start getting LeBron/2 endorsement money.
3. Yes it could be appealing if LAL tries to steal away Lowry, but I see the Lakers as too arrogant to use a large part of their cap on him. They have to deal with a $20 million cap hold on Gasol, who fits in better with Kobe. I agree Lowry is the best Raptor player, and he has a home in Toronto.
4. I’d put it at 50/50 at Livingston returning to Nets. He’s not a starter anywhere, with no 3 pt shot. He might get full MLE money elsewhere, but if he accepts mMLE with player option for year 2, he would be eligible for Early Bird next July (pays even more than mMLE). And he fits in good with Nets and Kidd, and might not work out as well with other teams. And his father said that Shaun is one guy that has loyalty.
5. Regarding Blatche, who I’m as familiar with as anyone, Nets first need to get a resolution to KG situation. I’m hoping Nets will buyout KG (50% or $6 million should be affordable for Prokhorov) and convince him to return as a Big Man coach for Lopez and Plumlee (he’s already been coaching them) for say another $1 million. I’m hoping the Nets formal word that they really want KG back is just politeness. He takes away playing time for others, including Kirilenko (especially with Lopez expected to start and get 30 mpg next season). Blatche would be better insurance against Lopez and could play alongside him, while Plumlee is gradually brought along and expands his game (Plum is quick enough to defend PFs, but has no outside game now). Blatche wants to return to Nets, but Nets would be reluctant to offer the Early Bird for more than 2 years (about 12 million) as Nets want cap space for July 2016. Also Prokhorov will need to decide (if he hasn’t already), if he’s willing to be the first owner to pay the dreaded REPEATER Tax (by being over the Tax for the 2015-2016 season) if Nets want to be competitive and pay Pierce and others. Ironically, Prokhorov can continue to drive up the Salary Cap / Luxury Tax, which would benefit him for July 2016, when it really will matter.
Nets could also S&T Blatche (up to 25 million with Early Bird) to an appropriate team, and get something in return (maybe an upgrade on Alan Anderson, who Nets Won’t be able to retain).