As the forces of nature push toward a rematch in the NBA Finals, fans may be treated to the end of the two current mini-dynasties.
All teams have a life span measured in a small number of years, and both of these teams are nearing the end of theirs. The Spurs have been on top for a tremendously long stretch, equaled by only a few teams in recent memory. The Stockton/Malone Jazz teams coached by Jerry Sloan kept their core together for 15-plus years.
While they never won it all, they were among the elite for most of that time.
Like the Jazz, The Spurs have done something that is almost an impossibility in today’s game. They have kept the same coach and three stars together for over 10 years. While they have a deep roster, the three stars are close to the end with Tim Duncan being 38, Manu Ginobili approaching 37 with an injury history, and Tony Parker being a 32-year-old point guard. That’s 39 in dog years.
The Heat took a different path by buying a championship team. They brought in free agents in their prime four years ago, and now their core is showing their age. Ray Allen is pushing 39, Chris “Birdman” Andersen 36, Dwayne Wade is an old 32 with a lot of miles on the odometer. Chris Bosh is 30, with a still dominant LeBron James right behind.
For teams to play at the highest level, their stars must be able to do it every night and handle the rigors of a 100-game schedule. For teams like the Spurs and Heat, being in the top 10 is not enough.
And history shows repeatedly that when teams get past their prime, the end comes quickly. The Jazz, Bulls, Bad Boy Pistons, Magic’s Lakers, and Bird’s Celtics all went to their graves quickly. The Rockets brought in Charles Barkley to try to get one more shot at the title for Hakeem Olajuwon. They bombed.
Not even Kobe Bryant can keep the Lakers from being mediocre at best. One thing that teams know is that being a .500 team is like the kiss of death. It is easier going from bad to great than it is going from good to great. Transitioning from being on top to being on top without hitting bottom is pretty rare.
I have been on a couple of teams that made the choice to end it while their veteran players had value, rather than wait until the end and start completely over.
Under Doug Moe, the Denver Nuggets had four All-Stars but couldn’t quite make it to the top. Dan Issel retired, Calvin Natt was diminished by injuries and Alex English was well over 30 when the team disbanded. Fat Lever was the youngest, but he too suffered from a knee problem and never reached All-Star status again.
The promise of the trades never materialized and the team dropped from averaging 50 wins over the previous 10 seasons to 20 the following year.
I was also on the Orlando Magic for the end of the Penny Hardaway era. The dynasty that never materialized ended when Shaquille O’Neal bolted to LA. While the team stayed competitive, Penny suffered from chronic knee problems that caused his game to deteriorate over time. When ownership decided that this group would not get over the hump, the Magic Kingdom went to Kingdom Come.
When the Magic drafted Dwight Howard in 2004, they eventually made it back to the Finals. Then Dwight did a Shaq redo and bolted to LA, and the team sank faster than the Titanic.
So what might be in store for the Spurs and Heat?
The Spurs have the easiest trip back to the top because they are the deeper and younger team overall. While their core is well over 30, their bench is not, so they have fewer parts to replace.
While they don’t have draft help via a lottery pick (when do they?) they may have enough cap space for one good player – or one really good player if Tim Duncan declines his player option and retires. Knowing the Spurs, though, I don’t see them sacrificing their future by cutting loose strong players. It’s much more likely that they try to add one minor piece and have Tim, Manu and Tony play it out one more year. Sometimes you don’t know that it’s over until you are past “over.”
(RELATED: SPURS SALARY CAP STATUS)
(RELATED: HEAT SALARY CAP STATUS)
The Heat, on the other hand, may go more quickly. Allen is only effective once in a while and Birdman is a Band-Aid big man. The entire team is riding Wade’s knee. He missed a third of the season so he could play effectively in the playoffs. That is a hint that the end is near. If he decides to hang it up (or just cant answer the bell), and Allen and Birdman are done, your team is down to LeBron and Bosh plus a bunch of fill-in guys.
Who knows, maybe Cleveland makes a deal for Kevin Love with the first pick and Anthony Bennett has a good summer. Or they pick Joel Embiid to go along with the young team they have now. It certainly makes them a team on the rise, a perfect time for LeBron to make the jump home for the last stage of his career.
Stranger things have happened.
Danny Schayes is a retired 18-year-veteran of the NBA, a professional broadcaster and soon-to-be-published author now penning NBA columns for SheridanHoops. Follow him on Twitter.
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