Will this be the third time NBA fans are treated to this scene?
Home Court Advantage?
Some in the media are falling too much in love with the regular season standings and statistics, as if the regular season really mattered to either of the teams in the NBA Finals. Some pundits are touting the San Antonio Spurs as being a superior road team because they had the best road record (30-11) during the regular season.
That is bunk.
First of all, we all know that both teams took turns resting star players at different times during the regular season. We also know that the Miami Heat, for whatever reason, are notorious for having slow starts and typically pick up the pace at the midway point of the season. This season, with Dwyane Wade sitting out 28 games, they were not able to match the late season push from a year ago that included a remarkable 27-game winning streak.
So, the regular season is not the greatest barometer of each team’s ability – except perhaps when comparing their wins and losses against one another.
Last season, even though both teams took turns resting star players, Miami swept the two-game series. The Heat eventually won the NBA Finals in seven games, taking three games at home and one on the road.
The Heat may have been fortunate in their Game 6 win, but that still gave them a 3-1 postseason home record against the Spurs. All told, the Heat hold a 7-4 advantage over San Antonio over the past two years, including an impressive 5-1 record at home. Miami is 2-3 at the AT&T Center in that span.
Considering the Heat have two wins in five tries at the Spurs’ house, it’s sensible to reason that they are more than capable of coming away with one win during a seven-game series.
Competing against the weaker Eastern Conference, Miami has won all eight of its 2014 postseason home games by an average of 12.3 points. In contrast, San Antonio has a margin of minus-1.5 in eight road games this postseason, going 3-5 away from home.
San Antonio has a significant margin at home, outpacing opponents by an average of 14.6 points while going 9-1. Miami’s road scoring margin is 0.85 points, leading to a 4-3 record.
Each team seems to be equally imposing at home, although an early loss to Dallas proves that San Antonio can be beaten. As a road team, Miami is better — if only by a slim 2.35 margin and two losses in only one fewer game.
All things considered, the Heat are more than capable of holding their own at home in Miami. They are also quite capable of stealing one, if not two, games from the Spurs in San Antonio. So long as the the game’s top referees refrain from serving up some home cooking in either team’s favor, each game has the potential to be highly competitive.
In the Big Three era, the Heat are 10-0 in home series clinchers. Should they split the first two games in San Antonio and hold serve at home, there’s good reason to believe the Finals will end before the Spurs can return to the comfort of the River Walk for a seventh game.
Keys to the Series
Taking a deeper look at how the Spurs and Heat match up against each other, there are four factors that will likely play a big role in determining the outcome of the NBA Finals: field goal percentage, points off turnovers, 3-point shooting and LeBron James’ shooting efficiency.
In the 11 games these two teams have played against one another over the past two seasons, the greatest determining factor in the outcome of those games was team field goal percentage. In nine of 11 games, whoever shot 46 percent or better won; in one such instance both teams shot better than 50 percent, but the team with the higher percentage won.
Additionally, the team to give up the least amount of points off of turnovers has won eight of the 11 games. The team to make the most threes has won six of 11 games, better than 50 percent.
Probably most important of all is how James’ shooting efficiency factors into the outcome. In games where he shoots 41 percent or better, the Heat are 6-1. If he is exceedingly efficient – shooting better than 50 percent – his team is 3-0. That considered, it is safe to say that no single player will have as great an impact on these Finals as James.
There is a lot of talk that the Spurs will likely continue to goad James into taking jump shots, giving him space and limiting his ability to drive into the lane. There is good reason for that: James is one of the most lethal finishers around the basket. In last year’s playoffs, he was converting just under 70 percent within three feet of the rim. This year, James is converting baskets around the rim at the highest rate of his career, 81.7 percent.
Unfortunately for San Antonio, James also is shooting short-to-midrange shots better than last year. He is converting 3-10-foot shots at a 56 percent clip and 10-16-foot shots at a 35 percent clip.
Seeing as offensive efficiency is something James both works at and often excels in, San Antonio will have to get really creative in how it tries to limit James’ offensive impact.
In the 1990s, Michael Jordan was without question the best player in the game. Jordan faced some opponents that experts regarded as better overall teams, yet no one in their right mind would bet against His Airness. Likewise, my money is on James, who is, without question, the best of this generation.
Prediction: Miami Heat in six.
Michael Brumagin writes the Tweet of the Day for SheridanHoops.com and is also a correspondent for BleacherReport.com. Follow @mbrumagin