NBA Finals Prop Bets: LeBron 6/5 to win MVP; Over/under on his points is 28.5

OK, folks. We are going to have some fun with this column. About a million different NBA prop bets are out, and I am going to run through a bunch them and make picks on each of them.

Some of these props will be easier to find at offshore sites rather than in Vegas, but we are writing for a worldwide audience here, and those of us in America are slightly jealous that our brethren in other countries who can make wagers so much easily than we can.

A year ago, I lost $100 on the only prop bet I made: Spurs in 4 at 25-1.

This year, my girl in Vegas has already exerted her influence and stopped me from laying a Benjamin on the Pacers to win the title at 70-1 when they trailed Miami 3-1.

My pick for the series is Heat in 7, which carries odds of 7-2. For those who like Spurs in 7, the line is 5-1.

If you like a sweep this year, the odds are quite a bit shorter than they were a year ago. San Antonio is 14-1; while Miami is 11-1.

For Game 1, the line opened with the Spurs a 2 1/2-point favorite. It has since moved to Spurs by 4, with an over/under of 198.5.

There are odds on where the series will be decided. For the AT&T Center in San Antonio, the line is -150. For the American Airlines Arena in Miami, it is +120. Remember, the Finals format has changed this year from 2-3-2 to 2-2-1-1-1. Games 1, 2, 5 and 7 will be in San Antonio.

Now we get to the fun part … the player props.

Series scoring average for LeBron James: 28.5. TAKE THE UNDER. The Spurs defend him quite well. He’ll end up around 26-27 ppg.
Series scoring average for Dwyane Wade: 18. TOO DIFFICULT TO PICK. Stay away from this one. Wade’s number will be very, very close to 18.
Series scoring average for Chris Bosh: 15. TAKE THE UNDER. He will be in single digits at least twice. He has fallen too much in love with the 3-point shot.
Series scoring average for Ray Allen: 9. TAKE THE UNDER. He will goose egg at least once.
Series scoring average for Tony Parker: 16 1/2. TOO DIFFICULT TO PICK. The guy has a bad ankle. He could have his minutes curtailed substantially as a result. Otherwise I’d advise the over, strongly.
Series scoring average for Tim Duncan: 16 1/2. TAKE THE OVER. Dude is stoked for this series after what happened last year. I think he has a good shot at Finals MVP.
Series scoring average for Manu Ginobili: 13 1/2. TAKE THE OVER. Hombre has been en fuego in the postseason.

Odds for Finals MVP:

James: 6/5
Duncan: 5/2
Parker: 51/21
Wade: 8/1
Ginobili: 11/1
Bosh: 16/1
Leonard: 18/1
Green: 30/1
Allen 50/1
Diaw: 75/1
Chalmers: 75/1

My advice: STAY AWAY. It’ll probably be LeBron, and 6/5 isn’t worth the risk that it could be someone else. If you want to take a flyer on someone, go with Wade at 8/1.

Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.