Sheridan’s Top 25 Free Agents for Summer of 2014 — UPDATE

We are now three weeks away from free agency, and we now have some insight into who will look to be a heavy hitter on July 1. The news that the Houston Rockets will not pick up the tam option on Chandler Parsons is a signal flare that Daryl Morey is going to try his best to add a third superstar.

It won’t be easy for him — especially if he wants a max salary superstar. But if he is setting his sights on a Pau Gasol or a Dirk Nowitzki or a Chris Bosh, there could be a way.

Morey’s team is already committed to more than $62 million in salaries for next year, but if he can offload the contracts of Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik — perhaps throwing in the rights to the 25th and 42nd players in the draft, he can get $17-18 million below the salary cap. And since Parsons would become a restricted free agent, the Rockets would have the right to match any offer he receives.

That would allow Parsons to get paid what he is worth a year earlier than he otherwise would, although it is unclear if another team would help facilitate Morey’s master plan by signing Parsons to an offer sheet when they already know the Rockets are likely top match.

So that is one piece of intrigue that will play out in early July. But it is now the most intriguing thing.

No, when LeBron James and The Decision 2.0 are among the realm of possibilities, you never quite know.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are convinced that they would have a legitimate shot at James in free agency if the Heat fail to win a third straight title. And since they have the rights to the No. 1 pick in the draft, there is no question they would sacrifice it along with a couple of decent players if it could get them Kevin Love.

A nucleus of Kyrie Irving and Love would be the foundation upon which the Cavs would try to lure James back to Ohio, but nobody really knows whether The Chosen One plans to choose a new five-year deal in Miami at a max salary — something he has never earned — or a return to his home state.

So there will be a lot of balls in play when this month ends and Free Agency 2014 begins, and we have only begun to scratch the surface.

So with that preamble out of the way, we bring you the Top 25 free agents list for the summer of 2014. (Players with team options for next season are not included, since those players will not dictate their own fates).

Key — ETO-Early Termination Option; U-Unrestricted free agent; R-Restricted free agent; PO-Player Option.

1. LeBron James, F, Miami Heat (ETO)

Betcha didn’t realize this: LeBron has never earned a max salary. Never. He has soon-to-depart teammates in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, who have seen their max days come and go, and you would think he would want to reach that stratosphere before he turns 30 (which happens on New Year’s Eve). Again, this will be a two-horse race between Miami and Cleveland, if it is a race at all. The guess here is that sunshine wins over snowstorms, but there is no telling how much of a factor the chance for renewed hero worship will be. James was treated like a king when he was all about Ohio, which is his home state. If he wants that feeling back, the only way to get it is by going home again. JUNE 8 UPDATE –– Not a peep about what the future may hold, not with Crampgate after Game 1 of the titles holding everyone’s attention. That will change.

2. Carmelo Anthony, F, New York Knicks (ETO)

When Phil Jackson said the Knicks would be good whether or not Anthony returns, not many people gave much credence to the thought of a new MeloDrama — though they should have. Same thing when Jackson said he would hold Anthony to his word in regards to taking less than the max to help the Knicks move forward with cap flexibility. Knowing Anthony a little, I can tell you his: He is bound to say anything, even things he doesn’t really mean — like the fact that he’s willing to give the Knicks a discounted price. Sometimes, Anthony gives the questioner the answer he thinks is most fitting, whether or not it is truthful. This seems like one of those cases — and it would not surprise me in the least to see him leave. MAY 30 UPDATE-Team president Phil Jackson said he has asked Anthony to play out the final year of his contract, and that Anthony is mulling it. “I’m not losing sleep over it, but I’m definitely concerned about the idea of a guy going into free agency,” Jackson said. “It only takes one bidder out there who has availability who can ruin your hopes and chances. JUNE 12 UPDATE-ESPN.com is reporting that Miami would like to bring Anthony aboard, creating a Big Four. Anthony has until June 23 to tell the Knicks whether he will opt out.

3. Greg Monroe, F, Detroit Pistons (R)

He is going to get a max contract, because there just aren’t that many 24-years-olds standing 6-11 who can be obtained this summer. Also, his agent is David Falk,  and if there is one thing that Falk knows how to do (aside from staying on Michael Jordan’s good side), it is getting his clients the most possible money. What makes the most sense is a max offer from the Lakers, who need to start putting together the building blocks of their future. Which means Stan Van Gundy (and Tom Gores) will need to decide: Is Monroe worthy of the max deal? Or should the Pistons decline to match and slide Josh Smith over to his natural position? JUNE 4 UPDATE — “I value Greg Monroe highly, yes, I do want him here,” Van Gundy said. “But … when you’re dealing with free agents, even restricted free agents, the situation gets more complicated.”

4. Kyle Lowry, G, Toronto Raptors (U)

The general consensus among NBA personnel folks is that a four-year deal starting in the $11 million range will be enough for the Raptors to get their best player (apologies, DeMar DeRozan) to stick around. What could throw a monkey wrench into the equation is an offer north of that amount coming from a team trying to rebuild on the fly and loaded with cap space (the Lakers are one such team, and the Heat could be another if LeBron flees). A number of Lowry’s teammates expressed confidence in April that he will stick around for the long haul, but all bets are off if James leaves Miami — and Lowry becomes the first domino. JUNE 5 UPDATE — What will happen if a point guard is the best available option when the Raptors draft at No. 20? Good question, with good answers unclear.

5. Lance Stephenson, G, Indiana Pacers (U)

You have to admire his fearlessness and feistiness, especially when it comes to competing against LeBron James, whose feuds with Stephenson over the past couple of seasons have brought extra sizzle to the Pacers-Heat rivalry. Not the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to IQ, Stephenson is nonetheless one of the more gifted all-around players in anybody’s backcourt. It makes sense for the Pacers to re-sign him for less than the max; it is debatable whether he is worth a max contract. But given the fact that teammate Roy Hibbert has a max deal, Lance will be looking for the same. The question is whether he’ll have leverage. JUNE 2 UPDATE — Who knows how Stephenson’s antics during the Eastern Conference finals, such as blowing in LeBron James’ ear, affected the market for him. Some may seem him as a wingnut, others as a fearless gamer. Will be interesting to watch.

6. Eric Bledsoe, G, Phoenix Suns (R)

When he wasn’t injured, Bledsoe showed exactly why teams were lining up to try to acquire him before he was eventually dealt by the Clippers to the Phoenix Suns. The NBA is a point guard-driven league, and this guy is the one player out there (yes, even more so than Lowry) who has superstar potential. The Lakers could do a lot worse than getting this guy along with Monroe, which together with Kobe Bryant and the Lakers’ lottery pick would have Jimmy Buss’ team contending from the opening tip this fall. And make no mistake, the Lakers would still love to get better at the expense of their old rivals, the Suns. JUNE 7 UPDATE — Speculation out there that Phoenix would be willing to do a sign-and-trade with Minnesota that would include Bledsoe for Kevin Love. Hey, if the two point guard alignment worked in Phoenix, why couldn’t it work with Ricky Rubio in Minnesota?

7. Pau Gasol, F, Los Angeles Lakers (U)

If we are to assume that Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh and Tim Duncan are all going to remain with their present teams – a sound assumption – then Pau deserves a free agent ranking ahead of all three of them. He can be acquired for less than the max, he fits as the last piece of a championship puzzle for a team that is one player away. Do not discount the idea of Gasol joining his brother, Marc, in Memphis. The Grizzlies could have Zach Randolph’s salary to spend, and Pau would be an upgrade on the knucklehead scale. (You won’t ever see Pau take himself out of a Game 7 with an ill-timed punch, a la Z-Bo.) Much depends on whether Randolph exercises his player option. MAY 28 UPDATE: SI.com says a poll of NBA executives on Gasol’s future returned many of the same answers: Chicago. Cleveland. Charlotte, Memphis, if Zach Randolph opts out.

8. Dwyane Wade, G, Miami Heat (ETO)

All that stuff about the breaking up of the Heat that we discussed in the preamble? Yeah, it applies to this guy, too. And to Chris Bosh, who is lower on this list. But with Wade, you kind of get the idea that he is going to be a Miami lifer. The Heat are still willing to max him despite his 40-year-old knees, but the question becomes whether Wade can carry a team on offense the way he once did. He has become a major second banana to LeBron in Miami, and it would be prudent of the Heat to make Years 3 and 4 of his deal team options. He is an old 32. JUNE 8 UPDATE — All quiet on the Wade front, too, as the NBA Finals continue. 

9. Dirk Nowitzki, F, Dallas Mavericks (U)

He isn’t going anywhere, but respect dictates that we place him and Tim Duncan in our top 10. It seems like an exercise in futility to list either guy as a free agent, because no one is expecting them to do anything other than end their careers exactly where they started them. With Dirk, it is a question of how much money he will make, and how much he will leave for Mark Cuban to play with in free agency down the road. He has already said he plans to play well into his 40s. JUNE 6 UPDATE — After Yahoo Sports reported that Nowitzki would be one of the players targeted by the Rockets, Mark Cuban responded: “I don’t pay attention to that.”

10. Tim Duncan, F, San Antonio Spurs (PO)

Not going anywhere … except, perhaps, on permanent vacation to his home island of St. Croix. The Big Fundamental has kept his long-term career plans a closely guarded secret, and there is no telling whether Duncan feels it is time to hang up his sneakers and move on to the next stage of his life — which in St. Croix consists of watching sunsets and drinking rum. Still has a ton of basketball left in him. JUNE 8 UPDATE — After shooting 9-for-10 in Game 1 of the finals, we can probably say this guy has 2-3 years left — if he wants to keep playing. 

11. Chris Bosh, F, Miami Heat (ETO)

This is the part of the list where the Miami question moves to a different stage. And even if LeBron James and Dwyane Wade decide to return, will the third member of the Big Three join them? There is no way the Heat are going to pay Bosh max money, and if James and Wade both get the max, there isn’t going to be a lot of money left to overpay Bosh without putting Mickey Arison in jeopardy of paying the repeater tax. So what to do with Bosh will be a pertinent question for the Heat no matter what happens with the quest to validate a dynasty. It will certainly be interesting — unless Bosh decides not to opt out. JUNE 5 UPDATE — Will be a target of the Rockets if he opts out of his deal. Might be just the type of player that would not need to demand the max, and would be a great stretch-4 upgrade over Terrence Jones.

12. Luol Deng, F, Cleveland Cavaliers (U)

This is the part of the list where things get interesting. With Deng, he could be the missing link to a championship for a team needing a heady glue guy, a lockdown defender and a locker room leader. If the Cavs are going to go all-in for James, they will either have to trade away a ton of money along with that No. 1 pick to get Love, or else renounce their rights to Deng, who never fit in all that well after he was acquired at midseason in the Andrew Bynum trade. Deng is still only 29.