Have the Indiana Pacers already gone as far as they can go with this roster?
It’s a question overlooked with all the big moves being made this offseason in the Eastern Conference, and the Central Division in particular. A quick synopsis, for those who watched the World Cup and forgot about basketball since the Finals ended:
- Cleveland signed LeBron James, drafted Andrew Wiggins and could trade Wiggins to Minnesota in a blockbuster deal for Kevin Love.
- Chicago got rid of Carlos Boozer and added Pau Gasol, prized European Nikola Mirotic and draft pick Doug McDermott. They could trade trade for Love, too, as SheridanHoops reported.
- Indiana failed to re-sign Lance Stephenson and replaced him with Rodney Stuckey and CJ Miles.
The moves made this summer objectively makes the Pacers the third best team in their own division.
Paul George has proven he can be a superstar player in flashes, but Stephenson provided really strong wing production at both ends and was consistent when Roy Hibbert was the exact antithesis of consistent since the All-Star break. David West is a really good player and George Hill is a good defender, but it just seems like the Eastern Conference is passing Indiana by.
In a league where Avery Bradley and Channing Frye make $8 million per season, the Pacers’ best offer to Stephenson was reportedly five years and $44 million, just a shade under $9M per season. Charlotte got him for a relative bargain at 3/27, while Indiana could be saddled with regrets for a long time for not upping the ante for last season’s triple-doubles leader.
Replacing Stephenson? Scoring guard Stuckey, a downright laughable downgrade who doesn’t mesh at all with what Indiana does best: rock solid defense and enough efficient scoring to get victories.
Take a look at this comparison between the two players, and you’ll see how the Pacers got drastically worse at the shooting guard position:
| 2013-2014 Stats | FG % | 3 FG % | Points | Rebounds | Assists | PER | True Shooting | eFG % | TO % | Usage Rate | O Rtg | D Rtg | Net Rtg | WS | WS/48 |
| Stephenson | 49.1 | 35.2 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 14.7 | 56.4 | 54 | 18 | 19.4 | 106 | 101 | 5 | 7.4 | 0.13 |
| Stuckey | 43.6 | 27.3 | 13.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 14 | 51.6 | 45 | 11.3 | 24.3 | 105 | 113 | -8 | 2.2 | 0.053 |
Stuckey is older, started just five games for the awful Pistons last year and man was he inefficient. His field goal percentage was more than five percentage points worse than Stephenson’s, and his percentage from three was brutal for a Pacers team that already lacks in that department.
The scoring is misleading, but the other statistics shine a light on the players’ differences. Stephenson averaged nearly five more rebounds and 2.5 more assists per game than Stuckey did last season. Stephenson’s net rating per 100 possessions last season was 13 (thirteen!) points better than Stuckey’s.
The Pacers pride themselves on defense, and Stephenson gave up 12 fewer points per 100 possessions than Stuckey last season and had more than five more win shares than his replacement. Indiana was first in the NBA in defensive rating last year and second in points allowed per game. Will they be able to keep that up with Stephenson no longer on the club?
Among five-man lineups that logged at least 30 minutes for the Pacers last season, Stephenson appeared in the top three and five of the top eight lineups in terms of point differential per 100 possessions. And they replaced him with an average to below average player in Stuckey.
This kind of move is made by a team whose window of opportunity has slammed shut.
Paul George is one of the top five two-way players in the NBA, but now teams can focus on him even more without a viable threat on both ends like Stephenson on the wing alongside him.
George Hill averaged just 3.5 assists per game last season for a team that ranked 27th in that category a season ago. With Stephenson’s distribution no longer there, Indiana could be in deep trouble in that department.
Indiana led the league in rebounding last season, but will David West and Roy Hibbert be able to sustain that without Stephenson’s seven boards per game? Can Hibbert regain the form and consistency he once so prominently displayed?
There are far more questions than answers for this Pacers team in Stephenson’s absence just as Cleveland and Chicago greatly improved their roster.
So have the Pacers peaked? Based on a multitude of factors, there are indeed many reasons to believe that the best days for this Indiana Pacers team are already behind them.
Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. You should follow him on Twitter.
People are overhyping the Lance Stephenson departure from Indiana. Lance is talented but a franchise simply has to move on when a more than fair offer is on the table….and for five years.
$44 million dollars is an incredible amount of money.
Many writers see Indiana as taking a step back but Indiana has risen to among the Eastern Conference with good coaching and utilizing the talent that there is.
Miami lost in the NBA finals and everyone viewed them as almost unbeatable.
There is something to say about the San Antonio method of building a franchise. Lance Stephenson wanted to be compensated like he is one of the elite in the entire league.
There have been too many “bad contracts” which cripple franchises for a long period of times because, unlike the NFL, the NBA is guaranteed money.
If the NBA had the same type of ability that the NFL has concerning players getting mega-dollars well passed their prime, it would be more competitive.
Let the season play out. All because one writer thinks this and this, doesn’t necessarily mean that is the way it is going to be.
Strong coaching is needed to win championships….not just talent alone.
The article doesn’t even mention CJ Miles though, whether you think he’s a legit player or not he’s worth mentioning at least. I honestly think that you shouldn’t forget about Solomon Hill, whose a 6′ 7″ all around player that’s a solid defender with a good jump shot. By the end of the season I think he’ll be the starting guard with Miles and Stuckey backing up the guard spots. Either way Vogel will have to learn how to use various combinations of players, it won’t just be the starting 5 as the best lineup all the time anymore. He’ll have to adapt to every situation differently kind of like Popovich or the Pacers may very well struggle
That was a disappointing article being that the Pacers brought in CJ Miles to be the main replacement for Stephenson who is a way better shooter than Lance. CJ is not the facilitator that Lance is but that’s where Stuckey comes in who is one of the best at getting into the paint and breaking down the defense. Also you mentioned Lance like a great rebounder but in fact everyone that watched this team knows that he would steal at least 2 or 3 boards a game and got into arguments with the stat guys about the credit for them. I really like Lance and will miss him alot but now the Pacers and especially Vogel will have to mix and match things better. But to just say Stuckey to replace Stephenson is inaccurate because there’s allot more to it than that. Lance is a good player but not the only reason the Pacers have been one of the best teams in the league for 2 straight seasons
Dude, look beyond the obvious for a minute.. There was off the court problems in Indy last year and many people believe Lance to be the center of those.
Bird offered Lance a very fair contract that guaranteed him 3x more that what he ultimately took from CHA. Not only did Lance take less money he went to a worse team!
What does this tell me?? Two things.. Lance had a market that was no where near where a player of his caliber should be, and it also confirms the theory that there was more going on behind the scenes in Indiana and Lance was probably the center of it.
Also, Rodney Stuckey is not going to start in place of Lance. He is Evan Turner’s replacement off the bench. If you watched Evan Turner last year in Indy you understand that this is an upgrade. CJ Miles will start.
Say what you will, but ultimately I think losing Lance might actually make Indiana a better “team” with a better chance to win.
I’m so sick of hearing about the Bulls. I heard from countless pundits that chicago was the favorite in the central last year. Rose got hurt. Again. How bout rose proves he’s healthy before we anoint chicago a championship contender.
As for Gasol. You are quick to point out stuckey coming off the bench for the awful pistons but fail to mention gasol coming off the bench for games with the dreadful lakers.
Last time I saw the Bulls they got run off the floor by the wizards. Last time I saw the pacers they handled the Wizards in 6.
Bottom line. Indiana still went to a game 6 in the eastern conference finals last year with a horrendous roy hibbert and george hill…. you know two rounds further than chicago. The odds of hibbert and hill returning to their average production is far more likely than rose being healthy or mirotic/mcdermott turning Into stars….
Hold off on chicago. As of now the pacers and cleveland are the best in the central until chicago proves they can even get out of the second round…
The pacers lost their second best player. The bulls are getting their best player back and a player who was an MVP 4 years ago. I understand that he hasn’t been healthy, so he’s not reliable, but the point of this article is that the pacers got worse and the bulls got better.
The bulls lost to the wizards, and the pacers beat the wizards. The bulls couldn’t shoot against the wizards because they didn’t have shooters. So they drafted a shooter, brought a shooter over from overseas, and got another big man to pair with Noah that is a better all around player than Carlos Boozer. Had the pacers not had Stephenson they wouldn’t have gotten out of the first round, and that’s pretty much the main argument of this article. They don’t have enough now that your second best player is out.
Yes, Derrick Rose isn’t reliable…but even without him, right now the bulls are a better team than the pacers. The bulls have a multitude of scorers and defensive stoppers, the pacers have one great player, one pretty good player, and a supporting cast of meh’s.
Exactly, people are so quick to become upset at the media for stating that the Bulls will be better then they were this year. The media isnt saying that they are the title favorites, only stating that they will be better. Adding four offensive players (Brooks, McDermott, Mirotic and Gasol) to a team that main weakness was scoring and not losing any defensive players alone makes them better then last year. Let alone Rose comming back at atleast 80 percent to the best team he has been surrounded with will give them a chance to make noise in the East.
Lance Stephenson was not the second best player on the pacers in the playoffs, the advanced metrics more than demonstrate he is an average 2 guard (David west and Paul George were heads and shoulders above everyone else on the team.
Do I think the bulls got better? Of course I do. But essentially were basing that off what? Haven’t seen mcdermott or mirotic play a second in the NBA and I’ve only seen Derrick Rose play about 10 seconds in the NBA the past 2 years. I’ll give you Gasol, but come on stats wise he’s marginally better than boozer.
I disagree that if the bulls lined up and played the wizards with this team Today minus Rose they would win. People forget. They lost handily in 5 games. And swapping out boozer for Gasol. And adding MCbuckets/mirotic doesn’t turn a 5 game wizards beat down into a bulls series win. Let alone a finals appearance.
Pacers made it to an eastern conference finals with 7 ppg lance Stephenson and without Danny Granger and took Miami to 7. Pacers were playing like garbage last year and STILL made it and took Miami to 6 games. Even a healthy Derrick Rose (as you say MVP 4 years ago) took Miami to 6…..
Mario and Dan. I also understand where you are coming from, this article iS discussing the obstacles the pacers must deal with and not to so much eastern conference favorites.
However I think you are downgrading what the media is saying about Chicago. Most believe Chicago is favorite in the east. And that is laughable