Sheridan: Who will make 12-man Team USA roster? — UPDATE

Team USA’s itinerary for the World Championship Cup is a nice one: Camps held in Las Vegas, Chicago and New York (including a trip to West Point) before flying across the Atlantic Ocean to the Canary Islands – where the European beach factor is high – and then moving on to Bilbao and Barcelona, another pair of oceanfront cities.

As Charles Barkley once said when Team USA was in Barcelona for the 1992 Olympics: “I’m going to spend so much time at the pool I’ll qualify for the swim team.”

If you have ever been to a European beach or swimming pool, you know what he is talking about.

Grand Canaria will be followed by a side trip to Senegal and Goree Island for a visit to the Door of No Return, one of the saddest and most moving places on Earth. Then it is off to Bilbao, the largest city in Basque country on the northern coast of Spain. The city has its own Guggenheim Museum, nice beaches and a vibrant nightlife. Team USA will be camped there for a week, playing preliminary round games against Finland, New Zealand, Dominican Republic, Turkey and Ukraine, which is coached by Mike Fratello.

From there, it is off to Barcelona for one week, which doesn’t suck.

The competition should not be too difficult, with four teams from Group C, including the USA, playing in the knockout round along with the four survivors from Group D, which includes Slovenia, Mexico, Australia, Lithuania, Angola and South Korea.

It should be a cakewalk all the way to the gold medal game in Madrid on Sunday, September 14. If the basketball gods smile on us, it will be US-Spain. Although the Argentinian team, trying to relive its glory from the 2004 Olympics, will be bringing its A game and could very well crash the final.

The journey begins Sunday in Las Vegas, with 19 players coming to camp after Blake Griffin and Kevin Love withdrew and John Wall and Paul Millsap were added.

The Americans plan to pare their roster to 12 before heading overseas, which means a couple of roster spots will be in play in New York when the US plays the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico in two friendlies.

And who will those 12 be?

That is what we are here for today: an educated guess at how the roster might look, barring injuries, after camp in Vegas, another camp in Chicago and then a third domestic stop in New York. It ain’t easy getting down to 12, as Rajon Rondo can attest. Four years ago, he was the starting point guard as the Americans went into Barcelona for a friendly against Lithuania but scored just eight points in the first quarter. Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook took over the point guard duties from there, Rondo was cut as the team stopped in Athens to play Greece, and the remaining 12 went on to capture the gold medal in Istanbul as Kevin Durant tore up the tournament.

Durant is playing again, and it is safe to say he will not be at risk of getting cut. But he will have very little company in that category, as I will explain in dividing up the roster.

THE SHOO-INS

Kevin Durant: True story: In Istanbul four years ago, Durant went nuts in the first six minutes against Croatia, helping the Americans open a 10-point lead. Then, inexplicably, coach Mike Krzyzewski subbed Durant out. The lead stayed right around 10  (which is uncomfortable for the Americans)  for the remainder of the game, and I asked Coach K afterward: Why did you take Durant out?

A week later, Krzyzewski confided in me that he learned something from my question: Why indeed had he taken him out? He would never make that mistake again. On what came to be known as the B-Deem Team, the Americans were going to need to ride Durant in each and every game. And that’s what they did as Durant ran off with the tournament MVP award.

Anthony Davis: True story: In Barcelona two years ago prior to the Olympics, I was sitting on the bench after practice with assistant coach Jim Boeheim, and we found ourselves watching Davis shoot around. “Look at him,” Boeheim said. “He goes out to 15 feet now, and soon he’ll go out to 18 feet. Nobody knows that about his game. In three years, he’ll be the best center in the NBA.”

Team USA has been looking to gradually bring along a center for six years now, once believing Greg Oden would be their man before tonsillitis knocked him out of Team USA camp. Other injuries followed, as you may have heard. Davis is a lock to be the starting center.

Stephen Curry: True story: In Turkey four years ago, the Americans practiced at the home court of Besiktas, which would later be the home court for Allen Iverson and Deron Williams. It was at that bandbox arena that the U.S. media relations officials placed a wager among themselves after David Blatt made his infamous comment that the Soviet Union rightfully won the 1972 Olympic gold medal game in Munich.

The media relations folks wondered, and then wagered: Would anyone in the media contingent interview USAB official Mike Bantom, who was a member of that 1972 team? Those with faith in me and my colleagues were rewarded, as Bantom expressed his disgust with Blatt’s comments. (Bantom is now the NBA’s supervisor of officials, and Blatt is now LeBron James’ coach. Keep that in mind when there is a dustup in the future regarding LeBron and the referees.)

What does that story have to do with Curry? It was in that same Besiktas gym that Curry told me he had shot a 76 earlier that day on one of Istanbul’s finest golf courses. Playing from the tips. And Curry was disappointed in himself for shooting that 76.

James Harden: Enough for a moment with the true stories. Let’s get into the nitty gritty. The roster is overloaded with point guards and shooting guards. The withdrawal of Love on Saturday due to his “current status” left the team without many options at power forward, which means the team will be loaded with shooters and players who can break down defenses off the dribble and get to the line. Like Harden.

He has served his time at the end of the bench on the London Olympic team (he averaged only 9.1 minutes), and Colangelo likes to take care of players who have paid their dues in the program. He is the only backcourt player I consider a lock.

THE POINT GUARDS

Derrick Rose: True story: Rose took over for Rondo as the starting point guard when the United States played its second friendly in Barcelona in 2010, against Spain. He remained the starting point guard through the tournament but didn’t play well.

In fact, he struggled mightily and often found himself replaced in crunch time by Russell Westbrook, who was a Coach K favorite.

It wasn’t until the second half of the gold medal game that Rose looked like the player who would go on to win the NBA’s MVP award.

At least two PGs will be cut, and there is a ready-made excuse for Rose — he is coming off a pair of knee injuries that knocked him out of nearly all of the past two seasons.

If he doesn’t feel he can play at 100 percent, he is expendable.

Damian Lillard: “It’s going to be awfully hard to keep him off the team,” team director Jerry Colangelo said in a phone conversation I had with him this past spring. With the U.S. playing small, there will be a premium on shooting.

And as anyone who has seen Lillard blossom into an All-Star can attest, he is a lights-out shooter from 3-point range – especially super-deep 3-point range.

But here is the thing about Lillard’s chances of making the final cut: If he isn’t shooting the ball lights-out in the friendlies against Brazil (in Chicago) and the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico (in New York), he could get the phone call that no player wants to get: “Report to Coach K, and bring your playbook.”

Kyrie Irving: True story: Two years ago, our senior columnist Jan Hubbard was covering USA training camp and wrote in amazement that the youngster from Duke had schooled Deron Williams and Chris Paul, the two starters for Team USA. An excerpt: “After beginning training camp with a couple of five-minute scrimmages that were open to the media, U.S. Olympic coach Mike Krzyzewski has pulled the curtain shut. The last four days have featured games divided into four 10-minute quarters between Team USA and the Select Team, which consists of younger NBA players. Media has not been allowed to watch. Although statistics have not been made available, the message from those who are Coach K-approved is that there has been one player who has consistently excelled – 20-year old Kyrie Irving of the Cleveland Cavaliers, a member of the Select Team. “Kyrie Irving is a player that literally you could move from one court to the other court,” Colangelo said, referring to shooting drills that have the Olympic team and the Select Team on adjacent courts.”

John Wall: When there are five point guards, and for the fifth guy picked, it will be an uphill climb to make the final 12-man roster. But it has been done in the past.

Four years ago, Eric Gordon came to camp in Vegas looking like a lock to be left behind. Instead, he was the most consistent outside shooter not named Durant, and not only did he make the team, he was in Coach K’s top five-man rotation by the time the tournament in Turkey ended. Wall’s chances could live or die by the way he shoots the ball, but we have all seen him become quite the accomplished 3-point shooter after making only three 3s during the entire 2011-12 season. (He made 108 of 308 last season). Coach K likes players who can play multiple positions, and that does not help Wall.

THE SHOOTING GUARDS

Bradley Beal: Looks like a prime candidate to be cut. Then again, that was what everyone said about Eric Gordon, who was discussed above.

Beal played like a 19-year old without a care in the world as he led the Wizards into the second round of the playoffs last season. If that carefree attitude can be harnessed into an ultra-competitive performance in training camp, you never know.

Same line of thinking applies to this next guy …

DeMar DeRozan: The U.S. federation likes to bring in the best young rising stars even if there is little chance of them surviving the cut process.

And that would seem to be what we have here with DeRozan, who will likely get squeezed. But then again, the guy is an All-Star. And he can play off the dribble a little better than some of his competition.

Again, a guy who will need to knock the coaches’ socks off in order to be on that airplane heading to Grand Canaria.

Klay Thompson: Coach Bobby Gonzalez will be covering training camp for this site, and he is going into Vegas predicting that Thompson will be the guy who gets the last roster spot. I happen to agree with him.

There may be only one spot open for a dead-eye shooter, and the competition is brutal with Kyle Korver and Chandler Parsons also going for that spot.

Both of those other guys are small forwards, and that could be to their ultimate advantage on a team that needs all the size it can get.

At some point – probably the gold medal game – they will have to face a Spanish front line that will include Serge Ibaka and at least one of the Gasol brothers.

 

THE POWER FORWARDS

Kenneth Faried: When we first published this piece Saturday, this category was listed in the singular. Faried was the last one standing as camp gets set to open, but USA Basketball reached out to Paul Millsap on Sunday and got a favorable reply. Neither of them would have had a snowball’s chance in hell if Kevin Love and Blake Griffin had not withdrawn.

If the Americans take Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins as their two centers, you know who is next in line to defend opposing 4s? It is Kevin Durant, who is too skinny to mix it up with the burly guys – especially in FIBA, where things are so physical that Greco-Roman wrestling is practically encouraged.

If they leave Garied or Millsap off the 12-man roster, they are asking for trouble. FIBA referees have a way of taking American big men out of games. Just ask Tim Duncan, who was so offended by the officiating at the 2004 Olympics that he vowed to never play a FIBA game again. “FIBA sucks” were his only public comments after the U.S. won the bronze medal game a decade ago and Duncan walked away from international ball forever.

Paul Millsap: As the last guy invited, they should make him wear No. 19.

But he is not 19th in the pecking order, not with the shortage of natural 4s. He will likely be battling with Faried for a single roster spot, although things can change as camp moves along, injuries happen and minds get changed. Let’s face it, the team does not need three point guards. Two is plenty. And an extra big is a nice luxury to have, especially one who can play inside-outside like Millsap can, plus is burly enough to defend opposing power forwards.

We could very well get to a place where necessity wins out over raw talent. Millsap probably would not have accepted the invitation if he did not truly feel he had a chance to make it all the way to Spain.

THE SMALL FORWARDS

Paul George: He should probably be listed up above among the locks, but you never know. There is always a chance that George will lose out in favor of a player who can play multiple positions.

But as good of a defender as he is, he will more likely slide into the role played by Andre Iguodala on the Olympic team two years ago – a small forward who occasionally slides over to power forward when the Americans go especially small.

The only other guy on the roster who can do that is Durant, and we have already discussed how Durant would be a liability at that position defensively.

George would too, but not to the same degree.

Kyle Korver: A decade ago, the Americans went into the Athens Olympics without any shooters and lost three times, unable to shoot over the zone defenses that every opponent threw at them. Ten years later, we have come full circle.

The Americans might actually have too many shooters – and that should make for a very tight competition that will include Korver, who shot .475 from downtown last season and is at .438 for his career. With the FIBA 3-point line a couple feet shorter than the NBA 3-point line, long-range shots will be like layups for this guy, Curry and Thompson.

Chandler Parsons: It will be nice for him and James Harden to reunite, now that Harden has dissed him by insinuating that Parsons could not be the third superstar alongside himself and Dwight Howard in Houston. Hey, maybe they can even get into a fistfight.

That will be one way to get the general public interested in this team. Having covered Team USA at the World Championships in 2002, 2006 and 2010, I can tell you that the average American sports fan will not take notice of this team unless they lose. For some reason, Americans don’t really care for the World Championship, or the World Cup as it is now known. We are so programmed to treat the Olympics as the be-all and end-all, we dismiss this as a second-rate tournament.

The rest of the world has historically seen it as more prestigious than the Olympics, which is limited to a 12-team field that excludes good teams purely for geographical reasons. Parsons is a bubble guy.

Gordon Hayward: Even if they don’t make the 12-man final roster, Hayward and Parsons will be able to hold their own in the team’s card games (Bourre is usually preferred) with the money from their new max contracts.

Pardon me for stating the obvious, but there appears to be a “three white guys battle” for one spot.

Can’t see both Hayward and Parsons surviving the cuts, no matter what their contracts say they are worth. But both will get themselves in the mix for the team that will compete in Brazil two years from now in the 2016 Olympics, and it really would be better to go to Brazil than Spain. The South American beach factor outweighs the European beach factor.

THE CENTERS

DeMarcus Cousins: If he is ever going to start showing some maturity, this is a good place to start. U.S. federation officials are especially vigilant about sparing the country any ugly American stories, and they don’t need the equivalent of TMZ-Espana having a field day with this guy. On the court, he is going to have to be on his best behavior, too.

Not only do the referees target mentally challenged American bigs, so do opponents. It would not be surprising for some team to have a designated thug go after Cousins early in a game just to get the two of them ejected, thereby exacerbating the Americans’ height deficiencies. So I am confident saying he will be on the roster, and it will be interesting to see if he gets as much (or more) playing time as Davis, who is more of a known commodity to Coach K.

Andre Drummond

He will be cut. Count on it. If you cannot shoot free throws, you cannot play FIBA basketball. Drummond is one of the worst free-throw shooters in the NBA, having shot .371 and .418 in his first two NBA seasons after being at 29 percent when he was at UConn. Only an injury to Davis or Cousins keeps him in the mix.

THE ROSTER: Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins, Kenneth Faried/Paul Millsap, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, Klay Thompson, Kyle Korver, Chandler Parsons.

Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. He has covered every version of Team USA’s senior team since the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. Follow him on Twitter.