Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson has been the subject of trade rumors in the summer before he becomes a restricted free agent. The Warriors brass has refused to include the lesser acclaimed Splash Brother in a trade with Minnesota for Kevin Love, opting to keep one of the league’s most dynamic backcourts intact for at least one more calendar year.
Just a year ago, the Los Angeles Clippers had another star player in the making in the backourt, Eric Bledsoe. He was also the subject of trade rumors, yet he was actually dealt, in a three-team trade with the Phoenix Suns. Bledsoe was also one year away from restricted free agency and L.A. elected to trade him before he demanded a contract that exceeded his market value.
See where this is going?
Thompson will probably ask for a max contract one year from now that Golden State probably doesn’t want to give, and likely cannot afford. Thanks to the handy, convenient SheridanHoops Warriors Salary Page, we see that four players are already set to make more than $10 million per season in the 2015-2016 season and three in the 2016-2017 season. Until the salary cap rises, it may be tough to keep Thompson and all their premium salary players long term.
So what will the Warriors do? They can learn a lot from how Phoenix is currently dealing with Bledsoe.
Bledsoe asked for a max contract. The Suns low-balled him (in Bledsoe’s estimation) with a four year offer worth $48 million, the baseline set by the contract given to Toronto’s Kyle Lowry, and showed they meant business by acquiring Isaiah Thomas in a sign-and-trade with Sacramento worth four years and $28 million along with using a first round pick on Syracuse’s Tyler Ennis.
So now we ask, how much is Klay Thompson worth to the Golden State Warriors? They didn’t want to trade him for Love and now they may be stuck with having to overpay him to keep him long term with salary cap money they may or may not have.
Now just because Thompson and Bledsoe are in similar situations does not mean they’re similar players comparatively. It’s actually pretty difficult to compare Thompson to any current NBA player. But one person that came to mind was Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan, and here’s why:
Thompson was born just 185 days before DeRozan, both in the Los Angeles area. Both players are 6-7 shooting guards with the ability to score in bunches. DeRozan was the ninth pick in the 2009 draft, Thompson the 11th pick in 2011.
Just as his his fourth NBA season began on Oct. 31, 2012, DeRozan received a four-year contract extension worth roughly $38 million to delay restricted and unrestricted free agency. As of right now, it doesn’t seem like Golden State will elect to sign Thompson to an affordable pre-November contract that avoids free agency, but let’s compare DeRozan’s third season to the third season Thompson just completed as a Warrior.
| Player Comparison | FG % | 3 FG % | Points | Assists | Rebounds | FTA | PER | True Shooting | e FG % | O Rating | D Rating | Net Rating | Win Shares | WS/48 |
| DeRozan 2011-2012 | 42.2 | 26.1 | 16.7 | 2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 12.8 | 0.503 | 0.435 | 100 | 108 | -8 | 2.5 | 0.054 |
| Thompson 2013-2014 | 44.4 | 41.7 | 18.4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 14.3 | 0.555 | 0.533 | 108 | 106 | 2 | 6.7 | 0.112 |
It’s pretty safe to say that Thompson had a superior third season compared to DeRozan’s, so a contract that exceeds DeRozan’s four years and $38 million appears justified. But DeRozan was just 23 when he signed that contract, so Toronto probably factored his room for growth into the deal. It paid off after this past season, when DeRozan averaged 22.7 points per game to go with 8.8 win shares. So where does the leave Thompson in his current situation?
He had a better third season than DeRozan and just had a better statistical season than Bledsoe, who will probably make about $12 million per season on his next contract. So like Bledsoe, there could end up being a gulf between how the team values the player and how the player values himself.
On the other hand, Golden State seems to value Thompson more than Phoenix values Bledsoe, considering the Warriors’ hesitance to part with Thompson in a Kevin Love trade. Will they open up their checkbooks and pay Thompson what he wants, the max or close to it, before Nov. 1 or let him go into restricted free agency like Bledsoe and risk ruining their relationship with a player they deem worthy of keeping instead of acquiring a superstar player?
If the Warriors let this play out beyond the end of October, Thompson could end up asking for far more money than he deserves and a Bledsoe-like situation could emerge next summer in the Bay Area.
Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. You should follow him on Twitter.
The Warriors will match what any other team offers Klay. There are only two marquee RFA’s on the market next summer, Klay and Kawhi Leonard. Those two are getting max contracts.
This post would be more useful if it was about how Klay Thompson could avoid being in a situation like Bledsoe, not how the Warriors could avoid being in a situation like Phoenix. They’d love to be in that situation where they can sign a player for less than he’s worth.
why would they want to give up wiggins (if they get him) for thompson, considering wiggins is on a rookie deal and thompson wants a max contract?
Parsons got the max, GS knows they will have to match that. GS will look to move David Lee’s expiring contract for cap space and make a big but sub-max free agent signing before taking advantage of Bird Rights to go back over the cap by matching a likely max offer sheet signed by RFA Thompson.
So GS may end up throwing in Thompson in the Love deal, as Aug 23 approaches, because they won’t be able to retain him.
Similarly, if that happens, MInny may still go with CLE, because they will be afraid they won’t be able to sign Thompson to a reasonable contract. Also Wiggins will be a bigger TV draw than Thompson.
If I was managing Golden State, how about getting into the Kevin Love deal by offering Klay Thompson for Wiggins? I would make that deal in a heartbeat, for
so may reasons, including talent level, salary cap, etc.