The first round of Team USA cuts have been made. Adios John Wall, Bradley Beal and Paul Millsap.
The roster now stands at 16. They have to cut it to 12 — and they’ve said they will cut it to 12 before leaving later this month for the World Cup in Spain. They still have four point guards. They are back to having just one power forward. They have four centers, one of whom — Andre Drummond — played horribly in the intrasquad scrimmage in which Paul George suffered his gruesome leg injury.
Who is on the bubble now?
Let’s take a look:
BIG MEN
The four centers are Anthony Davis (the probable starter), DeMarcus Cousins, Drummond and Mason Plumlee.
The power forward is Kenneth Faried. The guy who will probably start at the 4 in most games is Kevin Durant, whose defensive deficiencies in guarding that position are ripe to be exploited. The emergency power forward was going to be George. Now, it may end up being Chandler Parsons.
Who gets cut?
The thinking here is there will only be one cut from the seven big guys (including Parsons) listed above. Drummond cannot shoot free throws and thus cannot be a viable on-the-court contributor for Team USA. The last time USA Basketball had a guy like Drummond on the team, it was 2002 at the World Championship in Indianapolis. Ben Wallace was the most beastly rebounder in the NBA in those days, but his free throw shooting was abominable — as was his mid-range game. Opponents left him undefended and dared him to shoot, and Wallace looked utterly lost. The only argument for bringing Drummond is his heft. But Plumlee brings similar size and strength, and is a much more fundamentally sound player. He began training camp as a member of the Select Team, played with the Senior Team in the intrasquad scrimmage and survived the first round of cuts. Bobby Gonzalez says he is a very strong candidate for the final 12 man roster, and I agree.
The cut: Drummond.
The bubble guy: Faried.
POINT GUARDS
The four point guards are Derrick Rose, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving.
The common belief is that Team USA will carry three point guards into Spain, but you should keep in mind that Curry and Lillard are both quite capable of playing off the ball at shooting guard.
Who gets cut?
Two of this teams greatest strengths are speed and shooting, and if one of these guys gets cut it will sap the roster of a player who possesses both of those strengths. Four years ago in Turkey, coach Mike Krzyzewski started Rose but went to Russell Westbrook as his closer, and he also used Westbrook off the ball at 2 guard. Coach K feels very strongly that players who can man multiple positions are more valuable than guys who can only play one spot. Since he is going to have to play small in nearly every game due to the makeup of his roster, he will go with the guys who give him the most speed and shooting along with versatility.
The cut: Nobody.
The bubble guy: Lillard.
SHOOTERS
We are grouping the 2 guards and small forwards together here, because this is the area where there is a glut. The “shooters” are James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Parsons, Gordon Hayward, Klay Thompson and Kyle Korver.
I am predicting above that the U.S. federation will take six bigs (and four point guards), so this is where the roster competition is going to take place — unless one of the bigs (Faried?) is deemed expendable and they are content to go with five. In my opinion, that is just too risky. One injury, or one overzealous anti-American referee could significantly level the playing field by cutting the pool of available big men from five to four.
Who gets cut?
The first qualification is the ability to shoot. All these guys have it, but Korver is probably the best pure shooter among them. I think there is an argument to be made that he makes it on that basis alone, but it is not the strongest argument.
The second qualification is the ability to slide over to the 3 or the 4 position to defend opposing bigs. Korver is long but is not strong enough to defend the likes of Serge Ibaka (who could be put on the floor along with both Gasol brothers in a gold-medal game matchup against Spain). Then again, which of these shooters could adequately perform that role? My vote would go to Parsons.
Who can make the decision the most difficult? My vote goes to DeRozan, who played as well as anybody on the 20-man roster during the intrasquad scrimmage in Las Vegas. Every four years, one guy plays so well that he makes it impossible for the hierarchy to cut him. Four years ago, that was Eric Gordon — who ended up being one of Coach K’s top five rotation guys at the Worlds in Turkey.
The cuts: Hayward, Korver, DeRozan/Thompson.
The bubble guys: Thompson, DeRozan.
Final Roster prediction:
Davis, Durant, Harden, Curry, Rose (starters). Cousins, Plumlee, Faried, Parsons, Lillard, Irving, DeRozan/Thompson (reserves).
The final cuts:
Drummond, Hayward, Korver, DeRozan/Thompson.
Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. He has covered every U.S. Senior Men’s National Team since the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. Follow him on Twitter.
MORE FROM TEAM USA CAMP IN LAS VEGAS:
DAY ONE: Derrick Rose looks great for Team USA, But there is a PG Glut.
DAY TWO: DeMarcus Cousins Finding a Different Groove for Team USA
DAY THREE: Shall we call this team “The Unknowns?”
DAY FOUR: What to watch for in Team USA Intrasquad Scrimmage
DAY FIVE: Leaving Las Vegas: Three Things You Didn’t Know About Team USA
PODCAST: Bobby Gonzalez on Witnessing the Paul George Injury
I still don’t understand why everyone is putting parsons so high above everyone. He really is not that good. Derozan is far better, klay Thompson is basically the same player just flat out better, Hayward is by far better he’s more versatile. parsons is way overated
^Houston fan
Does Sheridan just ignore everything that Coach K and Colangalo say? There is no way they move forward with 6 bigs. That is not the style of play they are looking for. There is no way they are going to cut all those wings to leave Drummond, Faried, Plumlee, and Cousins on the bench as insurance for one game.
Will keep one of: Irving, Lillard (I predict Irving, but prefer LIllard).
Will keep 3 of Hayward, Korver, DeRozan, Parsons (I predict Parsons or Korver is cut Hayward is just too versatile and able to defend 2,3 or 4 like George and was very impressive in scrimage as was DeRozan).
Will keep on of Plumlee, Cousins, Drumond (I was thinking Drumond would stay but he didn’t impress much in the last scrimmage).
With the PG injury a lot of people overlooked how the players played in the game. Paul George had a horrible night, Wall looked atrocious. Rose, Hayward, DeRozan looked very impressive.
He’s not counting Bigs like you or Coach K may. He’s counting Durant and Parsons as a Big.
My only disagreement is in Drummond over Plumlee, but that will depend on the remaining exhibitions.
Its really only 4 Bigs, with one of them as insurance against foul trouble / injury.
The only difference you may have at the other positions, is substituting Lillard with a big Wing.
(Rose, Irving and Curry are pretty much a Lock) such as Haywood or DeRozan.
Who has been leaking word that Cousins is in jeopardy and some in the media are buying it? Sounds like nothing more than an attempt to motivate DeMarcus into taking this more seriously.
Your starting 5 is too small, not that it would make any difference in the 1st round.
Since there are already so many Centers, I’d go with:
Cousins, Davis (PF), Durant (SF), Harden and Rose as the starting 5.
Alternative is Davis, Durant, Parsons, Harden, Rose.
I’m still not convinced that Drummond won’t be taken over Plumlee, who also isn’t a good FT shooter yet. Plumlee looked lost in the 1st half, where he also missed both FT attempts. Mason might do just fine in the open court initial games, but come tough competition, he may fall back to his poor performance level against great defense as happened vs. TOR and MIA a few months ago. Drummond, on the other hand, can’t be stopped by anyone. And like Drummond, Plumlee doesn’t need to be covered outside of 5 feet.
Faried may remain by default and as insurance against a true Big going down or getting into foul trouble.
I agree about keeping all 4 so called PGs, but someone leaked that TeamUSA might only keep 2 PGs, which would be a mistake.
For the final cuts, besides Plumlee, I would just say that 3 from Korver/Thompson/DeRozan and Hayward. I need to see them more.
I don’t see the loss of Paul George hurting TeamUSA, as they may end up going Bigger or Quicker as a result.
Perhaps four more guys will break their legs. Problem solved.