World Cup: Round of 16 Preview

The group stage of the FIBA World Cup is over, with 16 of the 24 teams moving on and three of them – the United States, Spain and Greece – still unbeaten.

But they cannot afford to lose now. The knockout stage begins Saturday, and it’s pretty much the same as the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Win and keep playing. Lose and go home. And being one of the last four teams is something special – in this case, the chance to play for a medal.

Team USA and Spain, on opposite sides of the bracket, are the obvious favorites to duke it out for the title. But can one of them lose? And who will take the bronze? Here’s our rundown of all the round of 16 games.

BARCELONA GAMES

United States over Mexico

Led by Gustavo Ayon, the Mexicans earned the right to survive another day with a win over Korea before they inevitably are taken down by the Americans. The fact that Derrick Rose openly admits that all he knows about the Mexican team is that they have two NBA players (Ayon and Jorge Gutierrez) should tell you the inherent lack of respect some Team USA members have for their opponents.

RELATED: Sheridan’s Team USA-Mexico preview

There is no question that Team USA can beat anyone on a good day, especially with Anthony Davis and Kenneth Faried playing at such a high level. Until now, their only competition was Turkey being able to keep up for 22 minutes. The round of 16 will be Team USA’s last freebie before the competition starts to get serious, and the boys in red, white and blue will need to learn some respect if they want to avoid a repeat of the 2002, 2004 and 2006.

Slovenia over Dominican Republic

The Slovenians managed to go 4-1 in group play – losing only to Lithuania – behind the strong play of Goran Dragic (17.4 ppg, 4.0 apg) and brother Zoran Dragic (12.2 ppg). However, the Slovenians are very dependent on the 3-point shot, and very beatable if they have an off shooting night despite their fantastic guard play.

In an alternate universe, the Dominican Republic could have been a fantastic team in this tournament. Unfortunately in this reality, Al Horford is at home and Francisco Garcia has had to play through injuries just to help this team limp into the knockout stage. While they are significantly outmatched by the Slovenians, the leadership of Garcia will help keep them in the game with a chance to pull an upset if Slovenia comes out flat.

Lithuania over New Zealand

After squeezing into the round of 16 by narrowly defeating Finland (67-65), New Zealand has legitimized its right to be in this tournament despite having a virtual automatic entry every year for being in the lonely FIBA Oceania region with Australia. Kirk Penney has been solid in this tournament, but they will need to rely more on luck than skill to beat the Liithuanians.

RELATED: The other Dream Team of the World Cup

While the Lithuanians have a relatively weak backcourt, Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (11.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Rockets forward Donatas Motiejunas (10.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg) have formed one of the competition’s more potent frontcourts.

Australia over Turkey

Despite playing a competitive half against Team USA in which they were able to exploit the Americans in halfcourt situations, the Turkish side may find it very difficult to overcome Australia. Aside from steady play from Omer Asik, who has been an animal in the paint in this tournament, the Turks have been very inconsistent.

Australia has been very solid thus far, with Joe Ingles making an impact with his combination of length and basketball IQ and the gritty play of Aron Baynes (17.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg in 25.8 mpg) making them a tough out against any opponent. Their size and depth make them a dark horse to compete for a bronze medal.

Thus far, Jazz teenage rookie Dante Exum and Cedi Osman have been non-factors for Australia and Turkey, respectively, despite the former being a lottery pick and the latter a likely future top draft selection. A breakout performance on this stage could be a huge confidence booster heading into the upcoming season and should be something to keep an eye on in this matchup.

MADRID GAMES

Spain over Senegal

As much of a Cinderella story as it was for Senegal to make it to the elimination round, every fairy tale has to come to an end. It is very unlikely for the super-athletic Senegalese squad to upset Spain on its home turf. Giorgi Dieng (18 ppg, 11.4 rpg) has been one of this tournament’s biggest stars. His inspired play has lifted a team that many wrote off to an opportunity to play Europe’s top team in a one-and-done setting.

RELATED: Can Spain upset Team USA?

While Rose has been unspectacular, Chicago Bulls teammate Pau Gasol’s play in this tournament should have Bulls fans salivating. He is running the floor like he is 25 and has probably been this tournament’s top overall performer (I disagree. I’ll take Manimal-CS). If Gasol is playing like this, nobody has a prayer to beat Spain outside of Team USA, and that is without mentioning Marc Gasol, Juan Carlos Navarro, Ricky Rubio, Rudy Fernandez and Serge Ibaka, all of whom have the NBA on their resumes and have been fantastic thus far. Anything less than a gold medal faceoff against Team USA will be an abject failure for the hosts, but all signs are showing that Sept. 14 will be a battle of the titans.

Croatia over France

Amid speculation that the Croatian players are turning on Coach Jasmin Repesa, the last thing they need on their plate right now is the reigning European champions. Despite having two of the tournament’s brightest young stars in Sixers stash Dario Saric and Nets rookie Bojan Bogdanovic, the Croatians have underperformed thus far.

Which is exactly why they are going to blow France out of the water in this matchup. Saric and Bogdanovic are two of the most competitive players in Europe, and both of them are going to come out with a “Bleep You” type game that is sure to get them over the hump against the French side.

While France has played solid thus far, it is without Tony Parker, the type of leader it takes to get over the top. Their depth is nice, and NBA forwards Boris Diaw and Nicolas Batum are great co-stars. But this team has nobody cast in the lead, and it doesn’t look like this movie is going to last much longer than opening weekend.

Greece over Serbia

Basketball coaches should be tuning in for all of Greece’s games as they have been putting on a clinic thus far. While all the hype is surrounding Giannis Antetokoumpo, it is Nick Calathes and Ionnis Bourousis who have been showing the correct way for a point guard and center to play in the modern era. Their halfcourt execution is beautiful to watch, and their physicality and aggressiveness on defense is the dream of any coach. If any team should be considered the favorites for the bronze right now, it is clearly the Greeks.

Serbia has the size, but this team has not played together for a full 40 minutes yet in this tournament. They have looked great in spurts, But the seedings matched them up against one of the few teams where they have no size advantage. It should be very difficult for the Serbian squad to overcome a hungry Greek team.

Argentina over Brazil

Leading up to this tournament, it seemed as if Argentina would limp their way into the elimination rounds, solely relying on the brilliance of Luis Scola, who is playing like an MVP candidate so far. However, 23-year-old point guard Facunda Campazzo has emerged as a brilliant playmaker, compensating for the absence of national team stalwarts Manu Ginobili and Carlos Delfino.

When Pablo Prigioni, Andres Nocioni and Walter Hermann all come to play, this is one of the toughest teams to beat and could be a dark horse to make a splash over the next few days.

Brazil has incredible size, with NBA bigs Anderson Varejao, Nene and Tiago Splitter and a sparkplug in Leandro Barbosa, but this group doesn’t have near the cohesion of its rivals. Brazil deserved to make it this far, but it would be unlikely for them to overcome Argentina.

AJ Mitnick is an American living in Israel and working as an assistant coach in the Israeli Basketball Super League. A graduate of IDC Herzliya, Mitnick is an assistant coach with Bnei Herzliya, following three seasons with Maccabi Rishon-Lezion . Follow him on Twitter.