BARCELONA — You know, we really have no business debating whether Spain can beat Team USA, or whether Team USA can beat Spain. It is disrespectful to Serbia, which whacked unbeaten Greece out of the tournament Sunday with an 18-point beatdown, and Brazil, which took down Argentina by 20. And it does a disservice to the four other teams that will begin the new workweek with a chance to be World Champions seven days from now.
But you know what? It is all anybody is talking about on this side of the pond, and with good reason.
Spain has been the class of this tournament thus far, not having any of the hiccups that have occasionally disrupted Team USA. Hey, when you look back at what happened in pool play and remember that the Americans trailed Turkey at halftime, that qualifies as a hiccup.
Folks in Spain believe this is not only the best chance, but perhaps the last chance, for Spain to defeat Team USA after losing to them in the gold medal games at the 2008 Olympics and the 2012 Olympics. Both of those games were classicos, as they call them over here, and both ended up with the Spaniards adding to their collection of silver medals. The Americans will have their A team back for the 2016 Olympics, and Spain’s roster is getting awfully old at a couple of key positions.
But 2016 is still two years away. This tournament means a lot around the world (more than it does to Americans), and the “we didn’t have our best team” excuse just does not fly — as much as than pains such a large number of folks back home.
It has been eight years and 42 games (60 counting exhibitions) since the United States lost an international basketball game, and the Americans have never been quite as vulnerable as they are now with a team devoid of superstars.
A question for the readers: Name one position where the United States has a distinct advantage over Spain. Go ahead, keep thinking ….
It isn’t easy.
And after you are done thinking, you will likely come to the same conclusion that is about to be drawn here: The Americans do not have a distinct advantage in any area other than athleticism, and athleticism will only get you so far. You want to use athleticism to go backdoor against Spain for lobs and dunks? Well, Marc Gasol is a former Defensive Player of the Year who might have other ideas about letting Anthony Davis or Kenneth Faried get behind him for too many of those types of plays, and Serge Ibaka probably feels the same way. As we saw when Ibaka returned for the Oklahoma City Thunder against the San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs last season, he is a game-changer because of his defense.
The Americans also may have the tactical advantage of being able to force turnovers by using traps and pressure, but that is a dangerous game against an experienced team. You know why NBA teams don’t use the full-court press? Because they are going against NBA players, who have no problem beating a press. And of Spain’s 12 players, 10 have NBA experience and an 11th, Felipe Reyes, is good enough to play in the Association.
Also, Spain is comfortable playing uptempo if that is the way Team USA wants the game to be played. In case you have forgotten, the 2012 London Olympics gold medal game featured a combined 207 points (Team USA won 107-100). And the 2008 Beijing Olympics gold medal game had an incredible 225 points (118-107 for Team USA).
(RELATED: TEAM USA IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO BEAT SPAIN… AS OF NOW)
So let’s take a look at the teams, position by position.
POINT GUARD:
Kyrie Irving and Derrick Rose (and Stephen Curry) vs. Ricky Rubio and Sergio Rodriguez (and Jose Calderon and Juan Carlos Navarro)
Irving has been the Americans’ only reliable point guard, shooting 51.2 percent and going 5-for-11 from downtown. His numbers would be even better if he wasn’t always having his momentum taken away by Rose, who has been horrible (8-for-37 from the field, including 0-for-5 against Mexico in the round of 16 game, with 16 assists and 11 turnovers) as coach Mike Krzyzewski has repeatedly tried to get him going … to no avail. He needs to be benched, in my opinion (along with at least two others, DeMar DeRozan and Mason Plumlee). If the Americans use Irving as the starter and Curry (who starts out of position at shooting guard) as the backup, there might be the slightest advantage for Team USA. But Rose’s play makes this a draw at best, and it should be noted that Rubio has 22 steals (in just 119 minutes) with 5.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists to go along with his predictable .375 field goal shooting. Rodriguez has been the primary backup, with Calderon seeing mostly garbage time. Navarro merits mention because he often plays as the ballhandler in isolation sets, and his 16:2 assist-to-turnover ratio might be his most impressive stat. He is shooting 20-of-43, having taken more shots than anyone except Pau Gasol (73).
SHOOTING GUARD:
Curry and Klay Thompson vs. Navarro and Sergio Llull
This CAN be an advantage for the Americans if Curry and Thompson spend any significant amount of time playing alongside each other, but Thompson has not been a steady rotation player thus far (yes, that could change) and Curry has been slotted ahead of him in the 2-guard slot. The Splash Brothers have produced 30 of Team USA’s 44 3-pointers, with six of them coming from Curry against Mexico on Saturday. 44 3-pointers is slightly more than seven per game, and you need to make at least a dozen of them in a game to have the 3-point shot be considered an effective weapon on any given night. Right now, the Americans have made 44 3s at a 37 percent clip, while the Spanish have made 47 at a 34 percent rate. Navarro is shooting 10-for-26 from downtown. Llull is 5-for-20.
SMALL FORWARD
James Harden and Rudy Gay vs. Rudy Fernandez
Harden has been a rock for the Americans, their best perimeter defender (team-high 15 steals), their best facilitator (team-high 24 assists) and the best guy at getting to the line (31 attempts, making 77 percent of them). But Harden is playing out of position, and if this is a meatgrinder game that is tied or close to tied with 3 minutes left, what will the Americans do if Spain rolls out both Gasols along with Ibaka? In a situation like that, they’d put the ball in Navarro’s hands, let him isolate and drive, and send three bigs to the boards. Would Harden be on the court? Fernandez, meanwhile, is no slouch. He is shooting 50 percent overall (17-for-34), 50 percent from 3-point range (11-for-22) and 90 percent from the line. Those numbers make this position a wash.
POWER FORWARD
Kenneth Faried vs. Pau Gasol and Serge Ibaka
There is a good chance the Americans will shift Anthony Davis over to PF when Faried is subbed out, using DeMarcus Cousins as the center. That’ll help some, because it’ll allow the Americans to put some size on Pau. But if that size is not effective, it really won’t matter. And David was completely ineffective defensively against Gustavo Ayon (11-for-17) of Mexico, who is half the player that Pau is. That makes it extra necessary for Faried to be as good as he was over the first four games (he has tailed off slightly in Team USA’s last two games.) If Faried is winning the fight for offensive boards and scoring on put-backs, it brings this position closer to being an even matchup. But Spain still has a distinct advantage with the way Pau has been playing as the team’s alpha dog. Get this: Pau has scored 123 points in 154 minutes, while his brother — who many now consider the better player — has scored 68 points in 158 minutes. Pau also leads his team with 13 blocked shots (Ibaka has only 7). One place Pau cannot match Faried is shooting percentage despite making 64.4 percent of his attempts (47-for-73). Faried has shot 74.5 percent, going an astounding 38-for-51. Faried also has twice as many offensive rebounds (24) as Pau (12).
CENTER
Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins (and Andre Drummond and Mason Plumlee) vs. Marc Gasol
Why did the Americans bring six bigs? Because they are expecting to have their hands full with the Memphis Grizzlies center, who scared the U.S. federation more coming into the tournament than his older brother did — Pau’s play in this tournament has likely changed that perception. The Americans have enough fouls to withstand too many whistles if the referees take Davis and/or Cousins out of the game, which is somewhat to be expected. Remember, when USA and Spain played in the 2008 gold medal game, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade got taken out of the game by the refs in the first quarter with two fouls apiece (you only get 5 in FIBA matches). It won’t be long until Davis is Gasol’s equal, but Unibrow ain’t there yet. But again, the americans have enough talent and depth here to make this position a wash. This may be the most inexperienced Team USA that Krzyzewski has coached, but it is also the biggest.
Chris Sheridan is publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. He has covered every senior U.S. national team since the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. Follow him on Twitter.
Well, this is awkward….
Spain looked God awful today. I change my mind, USA would have watched the tape of what France did and do the same damn thing (clog the lanes and play the percentages on contested threes), only USA has better guards and big men than France.
Moot point now though. Spain are losers, and they did not have the fortitude to stand up to even their first test…. No way they would have broken Team USA’s 62 game win streak in the final… not that team.
I got to disagree with most of Mr. Sheridan opinions on matchups at every position. Clearly as a group Curry, Rose and Irving are better then Rubio, Calderon and Rodriquez. And outside of the frontcourt players Usa is better man for man, 1-12 as a roster. Yes, Spain my have more international experience they haven’t played a team in this tourament that could attack them 12 deep. Brazil, France and Serbia are all good teams but they don’t have the man power at key areas(Brazil shooting, France frontcourt)to attack Spain.
Any of the top 4 teams can beat one another on a good night, with a bad night for the other team.
If USA beats Spain or vica verca, it still won’t prove who is really better. Its only who was better on that night.
As a spaniard is good to see you guys give us some credit. It is going to be an awesome match when this two face up.
I may be a bit byassed by euphoria but I think Spain has a better chance of winning.
The USA has a great advantage in th athleticism and I think the best of Curry (who I find tremendously undervalued, i believe he should act as an active ball handler not only catch and shoot) and AD is yet to come. I find it funny when people say unibrow is still raw. He is an amazing player.
But my point is that Spain has the better odds:
1 pau is feeling it: he is a hell of a player, smart and feeling the healthiest in years, he is not being coached by Mike Brown or Mike D’antoni. He looks the closest to 2009 pau since 2009.
2 Age: How come a lot nba winner teams are always considered too old before they win? SAS, Dirk’s Mavericks… When it comes to winning in basketball finals it is not a liability to have years over your rival.
3 Your stars used to be KD, LeBron or Kobe. Harden will never be half the player this guys are specially when it comes to defending…
I think the key will be in:
A) Rudy Fernandez: if he contains jH/Gay decently. Because navarro defense is similar to my mother, even though he shoots like angels do.
B) Ibaka and Ricky bringing their a-game in defense
C) Cousins level will also be key
I admit that when you guys bring the top usa team you are unbeatable because LBJ and kd dominate too much but this is a different scenario.
Lets enjoy the game one way or another it will be amazing
I guess you don’t know James Harden is 1 off the best SG in the world offensively. So Rudy Fernandez will have his hands full unlike any player he guarded this tourament. The same can be said for Rubio, outside of Teodosic and Huertas he hasn’t played PG’s who can really cause him problems. These guys won’t be playing Iran, Egypt or Senegal.
You make some excellent points. Especially about Pau…. He really is surprising the few people here in the United States that are following this tournament. For someone who played at a low-mediocre level for the worst team in the Western Conference last season, he has stepped up.
Also, you are totally right, experience does mean a lot, but this is not the 2011 Mavs or the Spurs. The Mavs, led by Dirk (who has always been the superior player to Pau Gasol), had the perfect mix of talent, experience and youth. Jason Kidd, the starting point guard, was better than anyone Spain has ever had to offer (which, on a FIBA level, could be illustrated by the fact that he is a two-time gold medalist and undefeated in FIBA play). JJ Barrea, one of the top scorers and a top 5 point guard in this tournament, came off the bench for that team, and Tyson Chandler, that season, was the Defensive Player of the year and started for the United States World Cup Champions the Summer before the championship and the gold medal team in 2012. Throw in the brilliance of Jason Terry, the EXTREME defensive prowess of Shawn Marion and DeShawn Stevenson, and the world’s second best active coach in Rick Carlisle, you have a team that would decimate anyone in this tournament. The same could be said for the Spurs this past season (who were led, by the way, by 22 year old Kawai Leonard).
My point is, when considering these masterfully constructed teams that were centered around defense, age limitations (which were not as pronounced with the Mavericks and Spurs mind you) do not matter as much. However, Spain does not have a dominant defender at the wing. The Mavericks had two (Marion and Stevenson). Rubio and Navarro are poor defenders, Kidd was one of the best (and better on offense than Rubio or Navarro ever have been or will be). Chandler, in 2011, was better than Marc Gasol is now (and he beat Ibaka pretty well in the WCF also), and Mr. Nowitzki always has been and currently is the superior Euro PF when compared to Pau….. Spain has holes, and age hurts most when there is an athletic disadvantage, especially one as extreme as what Spain will face this Sunday. The Mavericks and the Spurs did not have that problem.
I still think it will be another classic though and I cannot wait.
I feel like you are trying too hard to push this narrative. An excellent argument can be made about Spain being favored in this game without trying to fit certain positions into the boxes of “advantage Spain” or “wash”.
Kyrie Irving is significantly better than Ricky Rubio at the point, and this position is a major advantage for the United States in my opinion. Rubio, while putting up solid stats, is just as much of a misfit in FIBA competition than any American is, and honestly, Irving is better at almost every facet of the game. Exceptional performances notwithstanding, USA has an advantage at the point.
Same with the shooting guard as well as the small forward. JC Navarro and Llull are good (as in solid basketball players), but Stephon Curry is an elite shooter with excellent ballhandling skills and a high basketball IQ. This is similar to a lesser degree with Thompson. Furthermore, as awesome as Rudy Fernandez is, James Harden is a top 10 basketball player in the world (Fernandez is probably not in the top 100). Rudy Gay also provides depth and athleticism that Spain does not have at this position (while baring in mind Fernandez was a Slam Dunk contestant at All-Star weekend once). This is Fiba, and it’s a different game sure, but talent-wise these three positions give a significant advantage to USA.
Also, in the post, we need to stop treating Marc Gasol like he is Shaq. He isn’t. He also has not been very impressive this tournament. Ibaka is a great defender, better than anyone on Team USA (1st Team All-Defense), and honestly, Pau is terrible at defense. Davis is no slouch, neither is Cousins or Faried, and the Spain front line, while awesome, isn’t exactly the the 1999 San Antonio Twin Towers.
Let’s get real. Spain has a good team, and they could very well snap Team USA’s 60 game win streak (if they make it), but they are not the unbeatable force they have been made out to be.
Also, people forget that the 2008 and 2012 Gold Medal games are not these two teams’ only meeting during the Gasol Era. in 2012, USA blew this team out in an exhibition in Madrid, in 2010, the B-Deem Team defeated Spain in an exhibition as well (also in Madrid by the way). 2008 also featured a Team USA 40+ point blowout of Spain in the group stage. The disaster that was the 2004 team even handled Spain in the Quarter Finals.
Again, my point isn’t that Spain will lose, I may even take the points if they are underdogs, however, I do believe that painting Spain out to be something they are not is a bit inaccurate. All versions of Team USA (save for the 2002 team), including the Larry Brown losers have beaten a Pau Gasol-led Spain, sometimes by way of blow-outs, and I think, this time (especially with all the quality big men on Team USA), the United States have an excellent shot at keeping the streak alive.
In 2002 Spanish National Team beat USA National Team.
Exhibitions can’t be considered as a valid reference.
I agree partially with your opinión. US players are better because are younger and experienced. Navarro was a better player than Curry (except in defense), best shooter, best IQ, best ballhandling, but is older and not better physically. Playing with FIBA rules Irving, Curry, Thompson, DeRozan, Gay, Davis, Faried have a superior athleticism. But they need not only speed and a good defense.
You forgot the importance of team playing. It´s the key, USA players must play as team players or may be beaten, not only by Spain, but other teams.
Yes they did. But consensus among media at that tourney was that US players gave coach George Karl a “going away present” and mailed in that game after getting beat up by media for being first US team with NBA players to lose to Argentina and Yugoslavia.