So … how was your summer?
In the quiet of late September, it’s easy to forget how totally nutty things got after the San Antonio Spurs ended the Miami Heat Era (even if nobody quite knew it yet).
Transformative free agent maneuvering. Blockbuster trades. Courtroom drama. Spectacularly damaging internal memos uncovered in the wake of wildly inappropriate scouting reports. Now that it’s over, the pillars of power in the NBA have shifted. Some of them, at least.
It’s easy to see where the elite teams reside. Given how they dominated the league a year ago, this will probably be the year fans finally stop waiting for the Spurs to fall apart.
With LeBron James back in Cleveland, flanked by Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, the Cavs and Dan Gilbert have somehow stumbled into championship relevance for years to come. Chicago, OKC, and the LA Clippers all enter the year thinking title. But while it’s obviously impossible to know exactly how the year ends, depth across the league is strong. The Western Conference has 11 teams with a realistic opportunity to finish .500 or better. The East isn’t quite so deep, but isn’t quite the smoldering tire fire of years past, either.
(This year, maybe all eight playoff teams win more than they lose!)
There is only so much meat on the emaciated bodies of the league’s bottom feeders. The big boys are going to have to beat each other to pile up gaudy win totals. It won’t be easy, but it will be fun to watch. So without further ado, let the debate begin with the pre-preseason edition of the Power Rankings.
1. San Antonio Spurs (62-20) – The NBA’s best team last season, by a mile, comes back intact. They start where they finished.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (59-23) – Still high end title contenders, but the Durant/Westbrook window could be closing. They’ll need Anthony Morrow’s floor spacing in a big way.
3. Chicago Bulls (48-34) – Cleveland made more noise, but Chicago gets D-Rose back, and will have a terrifyingly versatile front court. Gasol/Noah’s passing skills will make Chicago a brutal cover.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (33-49) – In Year 1 of LBJ 2.0, the Cavs could win a title, struggle (relatively) to make the parts work smoothly, or struggle to make the parts work smoothly then win a title.
5. Los Angeles Clippers (57-25) – It’s go-time for the CP3/Blake Griffin combo, and the LAC did make improvements, but did they do enough to pass SA or OKC? Not on paper, at least.
6. Golden State Warriors (51-31) – Only the Knicks and Pelicans were more iso heavy than the Warriors last year. If Steve Kerr can fix that, watch out.
7. Memphis Grizzlies (50-32) – They won 50 games last season, despite not having Marc Gasol for 23 of them. Vince Carter can still score off the bench, something Memphis badly needs.
8. Portland Trail Blazers (54-28) – Was last year a fluke? We’ll find out, because the Blazers return essentially unaltered. Will need good health, because depth and defense are real question marks.
9. Houston Rockets (54-28) – Losing Chandler Parsons hurts, but losing Chris Bosh hurts more. What does it say about the Harden/Howard combo that Bosh stayed in Miami?
10. Dallas Mavericks (49-33) – Tyson Chandler isn’t what he was during the first go round in Big D, but with Chandler Parsons improves the Mavs. A very good team, just not an elite one.
11. Charlotte Hornets (43-39) – New name, new units, new floor, new hope. Steve Clifford adds another stingy defender (Lance Stephenson) to an already stingy D. Up and coming.
12. Phoenix Suns (48-34) – A suddenly uncrabby Eric Bledsoe might be an anchor, but Phoenix’s 19-point guard attack should make them among the league’s most entertaining squads.
13. Washington Wizards (44-38) – Losing Trevor Ariza hurts, but the young Wiz can probably learn more from Paul Pierce. The Wall/Beal backcourt is dynamic. Imagine if Otto Porter develops?
14. Toronto Raptors (48-34) – Last season’s big surprise, but can they do it again in an improved conference? A third-year leap from Jonas Valanciunas would certainly help.
15. Miami Heat (54-28) – Still a very solid team in the post-LeBron era, but not one people will care about. Erik Spoelstra has a chance to show he really is a top end coach.
16. New Orleans Pelicans (34-48) – If they can stay healthy, The Pelicans could make The Leap. Omer Asik’s presence should liberate Anthony Davis… which should terrify 29 other teams.
17. Atlanta Hawks (38-44) – With Al Horford back, they should be closer to ’12-’13’s 44 wins, assuming all the front office turmoil doesn’t hang too heavy.
18. Indiana Pacers (56-26) – No disrespect to C.J. Miles and Rodney Stuckey, but that ain’t Paul George and Lance Stephenson. Still good enough to make the postseason, but they’ll have company.
19. Brooklyn Nets (44-38) – One of the NBA’s best over the 2nd half last year, but didn’t have room to maneuver this summer. Lionel Hollins adds grit, but BKY has a fragile roster and playoff future.
20. Denver Nuggets (36-46) – If Danilo Gallinari is fully healthy the Nuggs could be sneaky good, but in a brutal Western Conference are still likely on the wrong side of the top eight.
21. New York Knicks (37-45) – The front office infrastructure is there and optimists will point to a 54-win team two years back. Playoffs are possible, but serious progress is a tough sled in an improved East.
22. Sacramento Kings (28-54) – His Team USA experience should help Boogie Cousins, but big picture divining the master plan in Sacto is almost impossible.
23. Los Angeles Lakers (27-55) – Mike D’Antoni is gone, but the ragtag, defensively challenged roster remains. There’s a real chance Kobe Bryant never plays another playoff game.
24. Detroit Pistons (29-53) – If Stan Van Gundy can make sense of a talented but mismatched roster, Detroit could be a mild surprise. But long term, more changes are coming.
25. Minnesota Timberwolves (40-42) – Did the right thing flipping K-Love sooner rather than later, and got a good haul, in Wiggins, Bennett, and Young. Doesn’t mean they won’t suck this year.
26. Utah Jazz (25-57) – Quin Snyder has a chance to grow with a young core (Exum, Burke, Hayward, Favors, Kanter), but there will be pain along the way, including this year.
27. Boston Celtics (25-57) – Given their wealth of young assets, picks, and trade bait in Rajon Rondo, the C’s could move up faster than most of the NBA’s basement dwellers. Lousy as constructed, but the construction will change.
28. Orlando Magic (23-59) – Intriguing young parts (Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon) combined with odd financial choices (Ben Gordon, Channing Frye) equals a long season in the Magic Kingdom.
29. Milwaukee Bucks (15-67) – Jabari and the Greek Freak should have been a buddy comedy in 1983, and will make for a fun combo in 2014-15 and beyond.
30. Philadelphia 76ers (19-63) – If you like the plan, and I do, the Sixers get credit for staying with it. In, oh, three years, they could be fun to watch. This year, though… ooof.
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Andy Kamenetzky is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops.com. Follow him and his brother, Brian, on Twitter.