The Denver Nuggets head into the 2014-15 season with ambitious goals. The Nuggets are built around a young core that won a franchise-record 57 games only two seasons ago, only to be derailed by injuries and eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
That early exit precipitated the departure of their GM and coach. Last season, the injuries kept coming and the Nuggets missed the playoffs for the first time since 2003, the year they drafted Carmelo Anthony.
The core is back, and so is an old friend. And the Nuggets plan on being back in the playoffs. Here’s five things to watch as they chase that goal.
1. Can the Nuggets stay healthy? The storyline that defined the Nuggets last season was their health, or more accurately, the lack thereof. Heck, the Nuggets were so infected with the injury bug that Danilo Gallinari reinjured his torn ACL without even playing a game. Center Timofey Mozgov was the only player to play in all 82 games.
Gallinari was joined on the bench by starting center JaVale McGee (stress fracture), backup point guard Nate Robinson (ACL tear) and backup forward J.J. Hickson (ACL tear). With all four players sidelined with season-ending injuries, the Nuggets were never able to find their groove. In addition, other injuries kept starters Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler sidelined for 20 games each.
Even the minor injuries hurt the Nuggets more than most teams because they rely on their depth to compete in a superstar-driven league. They don’t have a bona fide star, so they rely on depth to wear out teams that don’t use or trust their bench as much.
To get back to the playoffs, that depth will be needed again, putting the injury report under the microscope. The Nuggets won’t be able to avoid injuries altogether – no team in the NBA does – but if they can list sprains and twists instead of tears and fractures, their playoffs odds will skyrocket.
2. How will coach Brian Shaw’s offense look in his second season? Shaw was labeled as a “defensive-minded, grind it out in the half-court game” kind of coach when he arrived in Denver last summer for his first head coaching job. He initially lived up to the reputation as he attempted to use McGee, Kenneth Faried and Hickson in the post for the first few games, and the Nuggets initially looked slower than they did under George Karl.
When the Nuggets stumbled in the halfcourt and lost four of their first five games, Shaw quickly realized his team was built for the fast break. He went against his reputation, and the Nuggets finished with the third quickest pace in the league (100.68 possessions). For comparison, only one of Karl’s teams was faster (2007-08, Allen Iverson’s only full season in Denver).
Going into this season, Shaw plans on playing even faster. So the question becomes, will the Nuggets win games while trying to become the “fastest team” in the league? History tells us yes. The Nuggets are known for fast breaking, and Lawson and Faried are the fastest guard-forward duo in the league (example 1, example 2, example 3). However, if the faster pace means a step back defensively, it won’t translate to many more wins.
3. Can Ty Lawson or Kenneth Faried elevate their game to All-Star level? The Nuggets haven’t had an All-Star since the 2011, when Carmelo Anthony forced his way out of town. They have lacked a go-to “star” even in the 50-win seasons that followed and have lost a good amount of close games because of the inability of an All-Star to lead down the stretch.
The opportunity is ripe for the Nuggets to send a delegate to the All-Star Game this season. Faried is coming off a stellar summer playing for Team USA in the FIBA World Cup, where he was named to the All-Tournament team. And Faried looked like an All-Star in the second half of last season, when he averaged 18.8 points and 10.1 rebounds.
Lawson also had All-Star worthy numbers last season and remains Denver’s best player. He averaged 17.6 points and 8.8 assists while shooting 43.1 percent from the floor. Meanwhile, All-Star Game MVP Kyrie Irving averaged 20.8 points and 6.1 assists while shooting 43 percent. However, even if Lawson lifts his game, it’s hard to see him overcoming the plethora of star point guards in the West.
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4. Will Arron Afflalo emerge as a better fit than Andre Iguodala? Afflalo has improved statistically every single season he has been in the NBA and begins his second stint with the Nuggets after averaging a career high 18.2 points last season.
I think Afflalo makes the Nuggets a dangerous team because of how well he fills the hole Andre Iguodala left a year ago. Afflalo will clearly improve the Nuggets, and he’s a far better replacement for Iguodala than Randy Foye, because he has shooting guard size and can play defense while scoring 15-plus points. He can reliably guard the opponent’s best guard night in and night out, giving the Nuggets the best of both world between Foye and Iguodala.
5. Can the Nuggets get their Pepsi Center magic back? Historically, visitors have always played poorly in Denver, a mile above sea level. Two seasons ago, the Nuggets were 38-3 at the Pepsi Center. Last season was a historical outlier, though, and the team only went 22-19 at home. That has to change if the Nuggets plan on returning to the playoffs.
Denver is in the same division as playoff powerhouses Oklahoma City and Portland. If the Nuggets cannot dominate at home, they will be behind in the playoff race early.
The increased pace should help. If the Nuggets can execute the fast break and keep everyone’s legs fresh with their depth, Denver’s altitude will come into play – especially against teams that arrive late into Denver after a game. The Nuggets should get their mile high magic back and post a record a lot closer to 38-3 rather than 22-19.
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Kevin Keller is a staff writer for HoopsHabit.com. Follow him on Twitter @Coachkck.
N.Dodge says
Nice article. 🙂