Sprung: How the Thunder Will Survive Without Kevin Durant

How will the Oklahoma City Thunder do without Kevin Durant for the first six to eight weeks of the season?

It’s extremely hard to tell, considering Durant has missed a total of 16 regular season games over the course of his seven-year career, including just two over the last two seasons. Durant’s lone absence last season came on Jan. 24 in a 101-83 win over Boston in which Russell Westbrook did not play, either.

With Durant sidelined by a Jones fracture in his right foot, everyone will now look to Westbrook to pick up Durant’s offensive slack, but it will be quite the tall task. The Thunder were 19 points better per 100 possessions last season with Durant on the floor. Westbrook’s overall differential per 100 possessions was a plus-six, or 13 points worse per 100 possessions than his MVP teammate.

Westbrook took 17.2 shots per game last season, a number that figures to go way up in Durant’s absence. The numbers that Oklahoma City really hopes will go up in Durant’s absence are Westbrook’s shooting percentages – 43.7 percent overall and 31.8 percent from three.

Westbrook shot 48.2 percent on two-point shots last season, the best mark of his six-year career. So perhaps an improved shot selection will make him the more efficient scorer Oklahoma City needs right now.

A look at Westbrook’s shot chart from last season reveals that there’s a lot of room for growth:

Within eight feet of the basket, Westbrook was only in the yellow, which corresponds roughly to the league average. That can improve with better finishes at or near the rim. Westbrook excelled last season on shots between eight and 16 feet but was only average on what are considered long two-point shots, between 16 and 24 feet. Shooting more from eight-to-16 feet and less from 16-to-24 feet should increase his shooting percentage almost immediately.

All the red from beyond the arc indicates that Westbrook should probably take fewer threes after attempting 4.7 per game last season. And now that Durant – and the copious double-teams he attracts – won’t be around for the next several weeks, opposing defenses will have their attentions squared directly at Westbrook. Open looks may become as scarce as 76ers victories.

Open looks also will not be as plentiful for Serge Ibaka, OKC’s third-leading scorer from a season ago. Ibaka is known for his shot-blocking abilities, having led the league in the category for the last four seasons, and is slowly developing into a fine offensive player.

Ibaka attempted a career-high 12.1 shots per game last season and still managed to shoot 53.6 percent. His 115 offensive rating – the number of points OKC scored per 100 possessions with him on the floor – was third on the team behind Durant and reserve big man Nick Collison.

But since basketball is a team game, it seems important to look at how the Thunder will do collectively without the best players. And that starts with looking at the most productive non-Durant lineups.

Of the five-man units that logged at least 10 games together, the 14 most efficient lineups per 100 possessions included Kevin Durant, according to NBA.com. That 15th lineup? Its point guard was Derek Fisher, who’s now the coach of the New York Knicks. OKC also lost guard Thabo Sefolosha, a strong defender who appeared frequently in the team’s most productive four-man groups last season but signed with Atlanta over the summer.

Of other four players in the best non-Durant unit – Collison, Reggie Jackson, Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb – three will be crucial in joining Westbrook and shouldering the load for Oklahoma City.

Jackson was thrust into action rather quickly last season after Westbrook got hurt and ultimately missed 36 games. After logging 14.2 minutes per game in his second season, Jackson played 28.5 minutes in 2013-2014, averaging just over 13 points on 44 percent shooting.

The Thunder really needed Jackson in Westbrook’s absence and may need him even more this season without Durant. Jackson was quite the bellwether last season. When Jackson was good, the Thunder won. When he was off his game? You get the picture. See the chart below:

Reggie Jackson	Minutes	FG %	3 FG %	Points	Assists	Rebounds	O Rating	D Rating
Wins	28	46.4	37.3	14.0	4.2	3.8	112	104
Losses	29.5	37.4	25	10.9	4.0	4.1	90	115

Jackson shot nine percentage points better from the field and over 12 percentage points better from three in wins than losses. Even more telling was that the Thunder scored 22 more points per 100 possessions with Jackson on the floor.

Lamb might also see a relatively dramatic increase in minutes in his third season after averaging 19.7 minutes last season. He averaged 8.5 points while shooting 35.6 percent from three with a 105 defensive rating the Thunder could probably live with.

Lamb and Jackson will probably continue to see open looks with Westbrook and Ibaka attracting more defenders, but the largest beneficiary could be 3-point specialist Anthony Morrow, signed in the offseason from New Orleans.

Considering all the marquee player movement over the summer, Morrow’s signing was far below the radar. But anytime a team can bring in a player who shot 45.1 percent from three in the previous season (on 2.6 attempts per game), it has to grab your interest.

Replacing the league’s most dynamic scorer and the most recent MVP is impossible. But a more selective and efficient Westbrook, a more assertive Ibaka and substantial contributions from Jackson, Lamb, Morrow and the rest of their teammates, the Thunder should end up just fine without Durant.

Shlomo Sprung is a national columnist for SheridanHoops who loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. You should follow him on Twitter.