About an hour after I had rolled into the Audi Garage next to the American Airlines Center in Dallas, and about four hours after I left San Antonio, where I had watched the Mavericks lose Game 7 of the first round of the 2014 playoffs to the eventual NBA champion Spurs, members of the Mavs spoke to the media.
On the floor of their practice court, Dirk Nowitzki spoke about the disappointment of that game after taking the Spurs to the limit, which no one expected. Coach Rick Carlisle spoke about how he thought Monta Ellis could be even better next season. GM Donnie Nelson spoke about how they liked the squad they had and felt like this was a core they could build on. He didn’t expect there to be much change this offseason. Well, he said he didn’t.
Jose Calderon, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter and Samuel Dalembert all spoke. It was the last time they would speak to the media as member of the Dallas Mavericks.
I don’t know if there’s a lesson here – maybe that NBA GMs don’t tell the truth, but we all know that. But I don’t even know if Nelson lied; I’m sure he did like that team and thought it was a core they could build around. But when presented with an option to bring back Tyson Chandler for Dalembert and Calderon later in the summer, it was a chance to make the team better that he, Carlisle and owner Mark Cuban all agreed they had to take.
In the next month, Marion signed with Cleveland and Carter with Memphis. In their place, the Mavericks brought in Chandler Parsons, Richard Jefferson and Jameer Nelson, among others.
Now, for the fourth straight season, the Mavericks head into a season after shuffling key parts of their team. Here’s five things to watch with the latest incarnation.
1. Can Rick Carlisle coach another team with completely new parts? Only Nowitzki remains from the 2011 championship squad (although Tyson Chandler is back now). Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder and Bernard James each joined the team in the summer of 2012. The other 11 players joined the Mavericks this offseason or last.
As you can see, this many new players is nothing new for Carlisle. He’s one of the few coaches who could pull off this type of team transitionseason after season, both acclimating new players to the team culture while indoctrinating them with defensive values and basketball skills he expects to see on the court at all times.
He showed he is not infallible with his recent awkward exchange and apology to Chandler Parsons. But he is second only to Gregg Popovich in my eyes, and I think most people around the league feel similarly.
2. Can the bench survive the loss of Vince Carter? After a bad first two months, Carter was fantastic for the Mavericks, especially late in the season; he averaged 25 minutes and 13 points with 44 percent shooting on 3-pointers after the All-Star break.
In his absence, the Mavericks don’t have a go-to gunner who can bail out the team in late shot clock situations or nail ridiculous 3-pointers in the clutch. But as ridiculous as the Mavericks’ offense will be this season, it probably won’t matter.
Consider this: The Mavericks had the second best offensive efficiency in the league last season with a lineup of Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert. Replacing Jameer Nelson with Calderon will hurt the spacing a little simply because you can’t replace an elite shooter, but it’s hard to even fathom how much Parsons and Chandler improve the 3 and 5 spots with their offensive capabilities.
With the uber-efficient Wright and lob-throwing Devin Harris off the bench, the offense is one of the best in the league, and maybe the best.
3. How much help is Dirk Nowitzki going to get? Make no mistake, the 36-year-old German ain’t done yet. Heck, he’s not even done improving his game — check out his quicker shot release he spent the summer working on and debuted in the preseason.
But Nowitzki is getting older, and if all goes well, he may not lead the Mavericks in scoring for the first time since the 1999-2000 season. Carlisle would said he would like to get Nowitzki’s minutes much closer to 30 per game or even slightly under that (he was at 33 mpg last season). With Ellis and Parsons in tow, that should be doable.
Ellis is a player who needs the right fit, but he has that with the Mavericks. Nowitzki says he is the most explosive player he has ever had as a teammate, and Ellis showed that by averaging the most drives and most points generated off drives by any player in the league last season, per SportsVU data.
As for Parsons, the Mavericks don’t need him to take huge strides forward this season. Last season in Houston, he was perhaps the best complementary player in the league, dominating in transition and acting as an elite bailout option for James Harden or Dwight Howard if their isolation or pick-and-roll failed. Another season just like that – averaging about 17 points on 47 percent shooting and 37 percent from 3-point range – is exactly what the Mavericks had in mind.
4. Is this defense going to be any good? Now, an area where the Mavericks do expect Parsons to get better is on the defensive side. He actually had a reputation of an excellent wing defender in his rookie season, which helped him get on the court. But he has done a poor job in that area his past couple of years.
Parsons is joining a Mavericks team that was very iffy in that area, and frankly should have been worse. With Calderon and Ellis sharing a backcourt and Dalembert as the team’s primary rim defender, it was a miracle they finished no. 22 in the league in defensive rating, per the NBA’s stats page.
Dallas looks to be a little better with Chandler protecting the rim, but the defense is still not great. If Parsons can pull off an above-average season locking down opposing wings and help the defense jump into the top half of the league, then the Mavericks might be able to outperform even the wildest expectations for them this season.
Realistically, though, they will stay in the 20 to 25 range, maybe edging up to No. 17 or 18 if things go really well.
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5. Is there any chance the Mavericks don’t make the playoffs? If they stay relatively healthy, no. I don’t see any way for them to miss. Carlisle and Nowitzki are too good to allow that.
However, a lengthy injury to Chandler injury could derail things. He is crucial to keeping this team’s defense together, and neither Wright nor Greg Smith – while great in their roles – are suited to play 30 minutes a night in place of him.
Any major injury would obviously hurt, but Chandler’s injury history makes him a bigger concern than others. Beyond that, Dallas is set to extend its streak of postseason trips to two, after its 11-year run ended a couple seasons ago.
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Tim Cato is the manager for Mavs Moneyball and journalism student at the University of North Texas. He is a fan of all the Dallas sports teams and has somehow never needed counseling. You can follow him on Twitter.