One of the common complaints about the NBA – and a somewhat legitimate one at that – is that there are 
only a half-dozen teams or so that can truly win the championship.
Think about it: Who do you have winning it all this season? Chances are it’s one of the “Fab Five” – Cleveland, Chicago, San Antonio, Oklahoma City or the Los Angeles Clippers. And you’re not off base, either. One of those teams is my pick – our staff’s fearless predictions run tomorrow – and the folks in Las Vegas feel the same way.
But what if you had to pick a team not among those five to crash the party? What if you had to take an outlier? Which team would it be?
Mine is the Dallas Mavericks.
Team executives don’t seem to agree. In NBA.com’s annual preseason survey, no GM had the Mavericks winning the Southwest Division, let alone the Larry O’Brien Trophy. But the Mavericks didn’t win their division when they captured the 2011 title. And this season’s version of the Mavericks may be better than that title team.
The Mavericks have been dismissed as title contenders since the franchise’s first championship, and with good reason. Owner Mark Cuban made the difficult decision to break up a contender one year early rather than one year late and – coming out of a lockout – would not offer long-term deals to key contributors Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea and Caron Butler, among others. Dallas hasn’t won a playoff series since and has spent its summers unsuccessfully chasing A-list free agents such as Deron Williams, Dwight Howard and Carmelo Anthony, who signed elsewhere.
But while being dismissed and/or overlooked, the Mavericks have slowly put together a deep and dangerous team around Dirk Nowitzki that is more than capable of covering for the German juggernaut on those occasions when he’s not quite up to carrying the club. There is a really good mix of exuberance and experience, skill and smarts, speed and size.
The Mavericks could probably use a little more snarl and don’t have the prototypical defense associated with championship teams. But do you really think of Kobe Bryant’s Lakers, LeBron James’ Heat and last season’s Spurs as defensive teams? And what team among the “Fab Five” doesn’t have a flaw or two?
If you’re wondering about continuity, yes, Dallas has three new starters from last season. So do Cleveland and Chicago. If you’re wondering about championship experience, Dallas has four players who have played in the NBA Finals. So do the Los Angeles Clippers. If you’re wondering about health, Dallas currently has no injuries among its rotation players. Oklahoma City has two and San Antonio has three.
The three new starters for the Mavericks are center Tyson Chandler, small forward Chandler Parsons and point guard Jameer Nelson. All are high IQ players who understand ball and player movement and unselfishness.
Nelson was the least ballyhooed of the trio, signing with Dallas after being bought out by Orlando. He will start at point guard and use his excellent pick-and-roll skills honed alongside Dwight Howard, either opening Chandler for lobs at the rim or getting Nowitzki matched up against a guard.
Parsons was a glitzy signing as the Mavericks maxed him out with an offer sheet filled with the poison pills of a trade kicker and a third-year option that Houston GM Daryl Morey refused to match. He is a terrific transition player with 3-point range who will make better decisions from the perimeter than Shawn Marion or Vince Carter.
“He really takes our offensive game to another level,” Nowitzki said. “He’s going to be fun to watch.”
Chandler backstopped the 2011 title team and won Defensive Player of the Year the following season with New York. To those who say his impact on the defensive end has diminished, consider that NBA GMs voted him the most underrated acquisition of the offseason.
If opposing defenses can prevent Parsons and blur-like shooting guard Monta Ellis from getting into the open court, here is what they will likely see in half-court sets. Nelson running side pick-and-roll with Nowitzki with either Parsons or Ellis on the strong side and Chandler lurking at the rim. Or Nelson running pick-and-roll with Chandler and Nowitzki, Ellis and 
Parsons spaced on the perimeter, waiting to receive and attack.
The bench has quickness (Devin Harris), scoring (Brandan Wright, Charlie Villanueva), defensive energy (Jae Crowder, Al-Farouq Aminu, Greg Smith) and veteran savvy (Richard Jefferson). The depth left quite an impression on a recent preseason opponent.
“They have more talent, they are hard as heck to guard, they have multiple combinations of players that can really score the basket at any time,” said Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger, whose defense often makes life miserable for foes. “The team is one of the best teams in the West.”
Running the show is Rick Carlisle, one of just four current coaches with a championship to his credit. Before San Antonio steamrolled through Portland, Oklahoma City and Miami last spring with a 12-4 mark, Carlisle and his eighth-seeded Mavs somehow figured out a way to push the Spurs to a Game 7.
Second only to Gregg Popovich among NBA coaches in current term of service, Carlisle seems to like what he has.
“You’re never going to be perfect, but we’ve got good depth and we’ve got guys that I think are going to be ready,” Carlisle said. “Now it’s time to throw it up.”
The flip side of this is that the Mavs also have enough question marks to miss the playoffs altogether in the monstrous Western Conference, where only two teams are operating outside of the belief that they can make the playoffs.
Dallas really doesn’t have a true backup for Ellis, who has averaged no less than 36 minutes per game in each of the last six seasons. (Reclaiming Barea is not the answer.) At the same time, there are potential logjams at point guard and small forward. Ivan Johnson seemed like a perfect fit as a needed enforcer, but he was cut. And as much as we marvel at Nowitzki, he turns 37 in June and cannot be magnificent forever.
The Mavericks don’t look like a championship contender now. They may not look like one in mid-April, either. But the same could be said for the 2011 squad that won it all as an outlier, and this team is better.
TRIVIA: Before getting traded to the Knicks on Monday, Arnett Moultrie held the distinction of being the longest-tenured member of the Sixers. Who is it now?
THE END OF CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT: In a shameless, unabashed effort at click-baiting, ESPN used the lame
excuse of a recent injury to rank four-time scoring champion and reigning MVP Kevin Durant as the NBA’s eighth-best player, behind Stephen Curry (sixth), Kevin Love (seventh) and obvious second banana teammate Russell Westbrook.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK: Los Angeles Lakers rookie power forward Julius Randle, on playing in the low post:
“I told my mom at a young age, ‘I don’t want to just be a post player.’ I remember I was always taller than everybody when I was younger, and people were always like, ‘Oh, he’s going to be the next Shaq.’ And I’m like, ‘No, I don’t want to be the next Shaq. I want to be Kobe.'”
TANKS A LOT!: With Michael Carter-Williams still recovering from shoulder surgery and the rest of the roster devoid of true point guards, it seemed like a good possibility that Casper Ware would start for Philadelphia on Opening Night. But Sixers GM Sam Hinkie traded Ware to the Brooklyn Nets, who already had three point guards and immediately waived him.
LINE OF THE WEEK: Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, LA Clippers vs. Phoenix, Oct. 22: combined 77 minutes, 26-44 FGs, 4-7 3-pointers, 13-19 FTs, 12 rebounds, 10 assists, six steals, one block, 69 points in a 108-105 win. New owner Steve Ballmer was getting his first live look at his $2 billion purchase and had to like what he saw. Griffin had 35 points on 14-of-26 shooting and Paul had 34 on 12-of-18 with nine assists.
LINE OF THE WEAK: Gary Neal, Charlotte vs. Indiana, Oct. 23: 28 minutes, 1-11 FGs, 0-4 3-pointers, 4-4 FTs, three rebounds, six assists, two turnovers, six points in an 88-79 loss. We saw that Houston’s Donatas Motiejunas was 0-of-11 the previous night at Orlando. But D-Mo wasn’t ejected for arguing, as Neal was in the fourth quarter.
TRILLION WATCH: It looked like there was going to be a tie between Blazers guard Allen Crabbe and Hawks rookie Adriean Payne, both of whom had 3 trillions earlier in the week. But Crabbe stepped forward with a 6 trillion – a remarkable number for the preseason – in Portland’s exhibition finale Friday at Los Angeles.
GAME OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma City at LA Clippers, Oct. 30. This was the setting for the end of last season for the Clippers, after Chris Paul gave away a Game 5 road win in the Western Conference semifinals against the Thunder. It is also Oklahoma City’s second road game in as many nights against a 2014 playoff team, which should be a good early barometer of where it stands without the NBA’s eighth-best player.
GAME OF THE WEAK: Philadelphia at Indiana, Oct. 29. Yes, we know the 76ers visit Milwaukee on Friday in a matchup 
of the league’s two worst teams from last season. But with their teenage forward tandem, the Bucks might actually be fun to watch at times. These two offenses might set back the entire sport about five years.
TWO MINUTES: Warriors guard Stephen Curry starts the season with 70 consecutive games with a 3-pointer. The last time he came up empty from the arc was Nov. 16 vs. Utah, when he went 0-of-5. During the streak, Curry has 14 games in which he made just one 3-pointer. On sheer volume, Curry has a great chance to surpass Kyle Korver, whose record 127-game streak ended last season. Curry is attempting 7.8 3-pointers per game during his streak, while Korver fired 5.65. When you factor in Curry’s streak accuracy of 42.4 percent, he certainly could break the record. … It was Parks and Rec time in New Orleans’ preseason finale Thursday vs. Dallas as coach Monty Williams used all 17 players on his roster. … There is no denying that Steve Nash is among the best small men to ever play the game and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He has as many MVP awards as Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant combined, for starters. But to acquire Nash, the Lakers gave the Suns two first-round picks and two second-round picks, then gave a 38-year-old Nash $27 million for three years. In return, Nash played just 65 of a possible 246 games and averaged 11.4 points and 6.4 assists in 29.8 minutes. And when the Lakers miss the playoffs this season, they will match the longest stretch in franchise history – three years – of going without a series win. That, folks, is a bad trade. … On Nov. 5, the Hawks visit the Spurs. Atlanta has not won in San Antonio since Feb. 15, 1997, or four months before the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan. … The importance of the 3-pointer in today’s game cannot be overstated, but that doesn’t mean everyone should be shooting from distance. For example, Jazz forward Trevor Booker made three 3-pointers during the preseason and declared, “I feel pretty confident right now. I just got to keep working on it. Just repetitions. The more reps, the more comfortable I get.” In four seasons in Washington, Booker was 1-of-10 from the arc. A more realistic approach comes from Wolves coach Flip Saunders, who had all his players attempt 100 threes in a preseason practice. They had to make a baseline number to have permission to fire threes in a game. “Just because you are open, sometimes there is a reason,” he said. “We want our guys to understand what’s a good shot and what isn’t a good shot.” … Clippers forward Matt Barnes made 3-of-8 shots in Friday’s preseason finale, which isn’t really noteworthy until you realize that he equaled the number of shots he made in the first seven exhibition games. Barnes was a spiffy 6-of-44 from the field in the preseason. … By now, you probably know that Spurs coach Gregg Popovich and five of his players skipped a preseason game in Phoenix, prompting Suns owner Robert Sarver to take the house mic during the game and apologize to his fans for Popovich’s audacious decision to actually rest key players during games that don’t count. Popovich responded by saying, “The only thing that surprises me is that (Sarver) didn’t say it in a chicken suit.” Kings coach Mike Malone was highly amused. “I got a kick out of the whole Phoenix thing and what’s going on with that. I love watching it from afar. No one can ever question how Pop runs his team. His results speak for themselves.” In Friday’s preseason finale at Houston, Popovich called all five of his remaining timeouts in the third quarter, then got a technical foul for calling one he didn’t have in the final period. … Some tidbits from the NBA’s annual GM survey: Two GMs think Kevin Love is the best power forward, while three believe LeBron James is the best power forward; the best player not in 
the NBA was a tie between Rudy Fernandez and Sixers Eurostash Dario Saric; all six teams receiving votes for best home court advantage are in the West, with four of them – San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Portland and Utah – the only game in their respective town; and four Spurs – Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, Boris Diaw and Danny Green – received votes as the best role player. Then again, so did All-Stars Joakim Noah and Dwight Howard, which makes you wonder what GMs actually consider a role player to be. … Remember when Miami’s Mario Chalmers said he was a top-10 point guard? Yes, that’s the same Mario Chalmers who averaged 4.4 points and 2.8 assists while shooting 33 percent and getting schooled by Tony Parker in the NBA Finals. Well, Less-Than-Super Mario may not be the top point guard on his team. Norris Cole started throughout the preseason and may have won the job. “I’m still open, and I’m not in panic mode, either,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “This season will reveal a lot, and I’ll make appropriate decisions when the time is right. … That is not a declaration yet for opening night.” Miami begins Life Without LeBron on Wednesday vs. Washington.
Trivia Answer: Jason Richardson, who joined the Sixers in the four-team Dwight Howard trade on Aug. 10, 2012, was second in tenure behind Moultrie, who was drafted in June, 2012. … Happy 39th Birthday, Predrag Drobnjak. … Did the World Series start yet?
Chris Bernucca is the managing editor of SheridanHoops.com. His columns appear Monday during the season. You can follow him on Twitter.