Bernucca: Thunder’s Big Problem is Jackson, Not Westbrook or Durant

There were two pieces of bad news coming out of Loud City this weekend. And there was a disproportionate reaction to the wrong one.

There was far too much hand-wringing to the news that Russell Westbrook will be joining fellow Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Kevin Durant on the sidelines after undergoing surgery on his broken right hand.

The Thunder are going to survive November without Durant and Westbrook. They have 14 games between now and Dec. 1, the projected earliest return for both superstars. Eight of those games are at home, and eight are against lottery teams from last season. There are three sets of back-to-backs, all part of separate two-game road trips. So the schedule is hardly what you could call overbearing.

And players suddenly thrust into bigger roles already are responding. Perry Jones has 55 points in his last two games after scoring 216 points all of last season. Lance Thomas has scored in double figures twice. Bassy Telfair has 16 assists in his last two games. Even Kendrick Perkins got into the act in Saturday’s win over Denver with 17 points, more than his total for the entire Western Conference finals.

When the Thunder come out of Thanksgiving weekend, they should be no worse than 7-10 and ready to welcome back Durant and Westbrook very shortly. Their absence may cost them a shot at the West’s top seed, but not much more.

The other piece of news didn’t get nearly as much attention. But in the long term – which Thunder ownership and management prides itself on never losing sight of – it may be much more difficult to overcome.

Friday’s deadline for contract extensions came and went without the Thunder giving backup guard Reggie Jackson a new deal. That means Jackson is headed for restricted free agency next summer, which could have far-reaching implications on whether the Thunder can remain a sustainable team, to borrow a phrase from GM Sam Presti.

Loud City has a great belief in Presti’s ability to manage the Thunder’s payroll and deliver a championship. You can argue that injuries – one to Westbrook in the 2013 playoffs, another to Serge Ibaka in the 2014 postseason – are the only factor that has prevented Oklahoma City from hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy in recent years.

During that time, Presti has refused to pull the trigger on large expenditures that his supporters have labeled as short-sighted. It began with the refusal to max out James Harden in the summer of 2012 and continued with other decisions, such as not using the amnesty clause to waive Perkins, trading Kevin Martin for a trade exception (that was never used) rather than a player, and never using the full mid-level exception on one free agent (although Pau Gasol was pursued).

And now, Presti has done it again, refusing to extend Jackson and rolling the dice with restricted free agency.

The sides apparently weren’t close to a deal. Jackson is a combo guard who could start for perhaps half the teams in the NBA, including more than a few playoff teams. Among those teams is Oklahoma City, which prefers to use him off the bench. And if you think teams don’t use that strategy to mitigate the future cost of players, you’re kidding yourself.

But Jackson envisions himself as a starter. And when extension talks broke down, Jackson made his future intentions clear: He plans to use restricted free agency to secure himself a starting job – perhaps even at a maximum salary.

We can debate until the cows come home whether Jackson is a max player. Contracts given to Eric Gordon, Roy Hibbert and Gordon Hayward in recent years say that he is. Recent extensions given to Ricky Rubio and 2011 draft classmates Kemba Walker and Alec Burks indicate that he isn’t. It’s a moot issue.

However, there are two more relevant issues. The first is whether there are teams with cap room who need a scoring point guard and believe Jackson is a max player, and the answer is a resounding yes. The Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Milwaukee Bucks and Sacramento Kings all fit the bill. So do the Boston Celtics, if they decide to cut ties with Rajon Rondo.

The second issue is whether Presti is just dispensing more of the Loud City Kool-Aid when he says that he will match any offer Jackson receives as a restricted free agent. Because if he is, the Thunder’s problem won’t be injured superstars, it will be departing superstars.

We can take Presti at his word. After all, he did extend Ibaka for four years and $49 million two summers ago, a deal that looked exorbitant then but seems pretty fair now.

Or we can track his actions, which almost always speak louder. He refused to extend Harden, who despite his defensive deficiencies was an All-NBA First Team selection last season. He refused to amnesty Perkins, even though his salary would not have counted against both the salary cap and the luxury tax. He refused to use Martin’s $7.7 million exception on an eminently disposable player such as Spencer Hawes or Evan Turner or even Byron Mullens. He trolled the waiver wire to add veterans on the cheap in Derek Fisher and Caron Butler. He used a first-round pick on Josh Huestis in exchange for Huestis spending a season playing at a D-League salary. He didn’t use his bi-annual exception this summer and used only a portion of his mid-level exception to sign Anthony Morrow.

This is not to say that those were bad deals. In fact, Fisher worked out quite well, Butler was a fine addition as a rental and Morrow – currently out with an MCL sprain – should be able to carve out a meaningful niche once everyone is healthy. But there is an undeniable underlying notion of penny-pinching running through all of those transactions, and you have to wonder if Durant and Westbrook are noticing.

Durant becomes a free agent in 2016 and Westbrook comes up a year later. It makes no sense under the CBA’s current rules for them to sign an extension. And neither have experienced free agency and probably are intrigued of the idea of being wined and dined. So Presti’s hands are virtually tied when it comes to preventing his stars from getting to the open market.

There are two overriding factors that could turn the free agency of Durant and Westbrook into nothing more than obligatory ego-stroking visits with other teams, and one is entirely out of Presti’s control. If the Thunder can break through and win a championship either this season or next season, you would think the chances of Durant and Westbrook remaining in Loud City would dramatically increase.

The other factor was in Presti’s control. He could have given Jackson the extension he wanted – even if it was the max – and show Durant and Westbrook that he is championship-chasing rather than penny-pinching. While there are no guarantees, you would think that would increase the chances of Durant and Westbrook sticking around, somewhat like a modern day Karl Malone and John Stockton.

Presti still has some control in his ability to match any offer Jackson receives. But restricted free agency isn’t the formality it was five years ago. Just take a look at Houston’s Daryl Morey, who snared Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin with newfangled poison pill contracts in 2012, then was burned badly in similar fashion on Chandler Parsons this summer.

What if the Lakers use the cap slots of Steve Nash and Jeremy Lin to make a run at Jackson? What if Monta Ellis opts out, and the Mavericks decide to give Jackson a deal with an option year and a trade kicker as they did with Parsons? What if the Rockets use Jason Terry’s cap slot and move some of their young pieces to create max space for Jackson?

Will Presti remain true to his word?

From a financial standpoint, he certainly can. Perkins and his $9.65 million comes off the books next summer, as do Nick Collison ($2.42 million) and Telfair ($1.32 million). That’s more than $13 million and doesn’t even factor in the projected stratospheric rise that the cap and tax should see with the new TV deal.

It seems silly that the idea of Jackson getting away became a possibility. Now that it is, perhaps that should tell you all you need to know about the Thunder’s plans.

Kool-Aid, anyone?

TRIVIA: The San Antonio Spurs have lost just one season opener with Gregg Popovich as coach. Which current Spur was on the team that beat them? Answer below.