Two of the five NBA games this evening stand out for DFS purposes, with the Cavaliers hosting the Pelicans and the Spurs visiting the Clippers. They could be high-scoring, which is what we want. That’s not to say there won’t be overachievers and bargains in the other three, only that we focus first on those two first.
It’s a new week in traditional H2H leagues and a whole new season in one-day fantasy basketball. I begin each Monday with $100, a maximum weekly loss. Last week it doubled, allowing me to withdraw the profit and continue with the same hundred, no deposit needed. Some may subscribe to the “risk more when you’re ahead” theory, but during my horseplaying career, that approach never did turn into millions.
Plays of the Day
Not winning at DraftKings yet? Click for a FREE entry (worth $2) to win as much as $5,000 in tonight’s $30K Layup, where 4,000 of 17,250 teams earn cash. DK will also match your initial deposit 100% (up to $600) with bonus money that gets added to your account as you play. Our second featured contest tonight is the $60K Crossover where it costs $27 to enter, but the field is limited to 2520 and the top 502 will be paid. First place is worth a cool $10,000 in that one. Good luck!
Tonight’s clash between Anthony Davis $11000 and LeBron James $10500 has the spotlight. Kevin Love $9000 is a tough cover, so AD may not throw a block party and that lofty salary is difficult to swallow unless he’s superb. I’ll wait for Wednesday at home vs. the Lakers and pay any price. LBJ has begun to assert himself a bit more but still has a .419 FG% through five games (compared to .567 and .565 the last two seasons) so he’s “overdue” for a streak of high-efficiency nights.
There are onion-skin layers of handicapping. If Omer Asik $5900 plays big minutes, Anderson Varejao $4700 is worth more than Tristan Thompson $4500. However, Ryan Anderson $5200 might see more action than Asik. Meanwhile, once-great Shawn Marion $3700 was ignored by coach David Blatt (less than 15 min./game for the first three) then inserted into the starting lineup for defense at SG. The Matrix got 32 minutes to 24 for Dion Waiters $3700 in their new roles, which make both players more valuable.
With a determined effort on Saturday, the Clippers beat Portland. Now they face another difficult test. Tim Duncan $7400 and Tony Parker $6300 are better prices than Blake Griffin $9400 and Chris Paul $9800, but we have yet to see Kawhi Leonard $5600 at his best, as that long bout of conjunctivitis may still be affecting his vision. J.J. Redick $4500 put up a season-best 30 points vs. the Blazers, with the addition of Jamal Crawford $5400 to the L.A. starting five at SF spacing the floor. DeAndre Jordan $7500 is also playable despite the salary raise. Manu Ginobili $4500 and Danny Green $4700 can pay their way at those prices. Both teams scoring 100+ will not be a shocker and overtime is conceivable.
It’s an important rematch for the Knicks, who lost in Atlanta on Saturday when Kyle Korver $5200 was on fire — six triples, 27 PTS. Shane Larkin $3300, Iman Shumpert $4500, Tim Hardaway Jr. $3400 and Amar’e Stoudemire $5100 are decent value in support of Carmelo Anthony $8400. If you think the Hawks will sweep this home-and-home, add Jeff Teague $7300, Paul Millsap $7600 and/or Al Horford $7300 to Korver and hope it’s wide-open.
Lineup construction is art and science. My target is 280 DK points (roughly two guys with 50 and six with 30) as a consistent, break-even point. Luck boosts you to 300+ sometimes, or causes you finish out of the money. Taking the expensive position on LeBron, Hayward and Gasol are the best I can afford. Everyone else is underpriced by my guesstimates. You’ll notice this sample roster doesn’t spend less than $4500 on anyone. Normally I love to use a $3000 guy with upside, but there isn’t a great candidate tonight.
It’s hardly a star-studded affair in Indianapolis, where the home team has been devastated by injuries. Roy Hibbert $6900 (knee) is not 100%, so Chris Copeland $6000, Solomon Hill $4200 and Donald Sloan $4900 are anonymous scoring threats. The young talent on the Jazz should prevail, despite being a mediocre road team. Consider Gordon Hayward $7800, Derrick Favors $7100, Alec Burks $5500 and Enes Kanter $4900 but be aware that this may be a low-scoring affair.
Worst game, DFS division, is Detroit at Chicago. It’s hard to keep track of whether Derrick Rose $6900 (both ankles) is in or out, getting to the point where Aaron Brooks $4500 is useful. Joakim Noah $6700 is off to a slow start and there was even a rumor — though incorrect — about him coming off the bench. Pau Gasol $7900 has been consistent, Taj Gibson $5000 cost-effective and Jimmy Butler $6100 is playable if his sore shoulder and thumb aren’t too troublesome. The Pistons lost a heartbreaker at home yesterday and may be weary against a stingy defense tonight.
The Fantasy Spin features DFS advice every day of the NBA season.
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