At this time of the NBA season, when all stimulating conversations must be cooled off with the buzz-killing “small-sample-size” argument, it might be a good idea to attack this issue from the other side.
Which player is shooting the lights out at an unsustainable clip, who is playing out of his depth, and whose numbers will eventually straighten themselves out?
Before it’s too late, fans, here are your “sample-size All-Stars.”
Jimmy Butler, G, Chicago: It turned out Butler and backcourt mate Derrick Rose timed their game-costing injuries poorly, as they have played together in only two game. Other than the 62 minutes they’ve shared on the court, Butler did not have any chance to reconfigure his game around his former MVP point guard.
Instead, the hard-working Butler carved his own ni che, erupting for 19.5 points per contest on 50 percent shooting from the field, complemented by 5.8 rebounds and his trademark game-changing defense.
Butler’s shooting numbers may revert a bit, but the main reason his offensive production is unsustainable is mostly about his opportunities to score. This season, he is translating his aggressive style of play to the offensive end more than ever, averaging 6.7 free throws per game. That’s an effective way to generate points for a below-average shooter such as Butler, but whenever Rose is playing he is going to consume many of those possessions.
Regardless of numbers, we’re seeing great improvement form Butler, and Bulls fans should be both pleased and worried, given his restricted free agency this summer.
Klay Thompson, G, Golden State: Maybe it’s the weather, or the gold medal he got this offseason. Or maybe 70 million dollars just do that to a person. But Thompson’s confidence has never been higher.
The Warriors have had some dominating performances, and the “Splash Brothers” did not take long to put the “best backcourt” debate to bed. The freshly maxed-out Thompson began the season scorching hot, including a monstrous 41 points on 18 shots against childhood idol Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.
The Warriors won their first games until Thompson was sidelined with a sprained hand, resulting in their first loss. He is currently sixth in the league in scoring with 23.8 points per game.
Already considered one of the game’s best shooters, Thompson is expanding his offensive game rather meticulously. Never venturing too far outside his comfort zone, Thompson is mostly using pull-ups, straight-line drives and pump fakes to create for himself. It’s all working, too, mostly due to him being such a threat as shooter.
While the progress he is making is not going away, his numbers should eventually drop as his percentage at the rim comes back to earth and his free-throw rate falls. And although backcourt mate Stephen Curry already leads the league in scoring, he doesn’t even seem to be his usual automatic self.
Jeff Green, F, Boston: The good news is that Green makes our list, leading the Celtics with 19.7 points per game and yet to score less than 14. His shooting numbers also are decent although they nose-dive in the second and fourth quarters. And with Rajon Rondo healthy and directing the offense, Green is committing just 1.7 turnovers per game.
Now the bad news: In the demanding and hyper-competitive environment of the NBA, stability is an important ingredient to success. Unfortunately, Green has perhaps the most extreme talent-to-reliability ratio in the league. At 6-9, 235 pounds and freakishly athletic, Green’s versatility makes him a mismatch no matter who plays him, be it smaller wings, or slower-footed power forwards. But when Green is not making opposing coaches pick their poison, he makes his own coach consider a slug of arsenic.
This is Green’s seventh NBA season, and if last season’s opportunity did not force him to take a big step toward his potential, I doubt that he ever takes it. He has great upside but has been consistently inconsistent.
Rudy Gay, F, Sacramento: The talented Team USA roster has been redisbursed around the league, and the gold medal experience in Spain seems to have give all of them a leg up to start the season. Much like Thompson and Curry in Golden State, Gay and DeMarcus Cousins are in mid-season form, leading the Kings to an encouraging 5-2 start.
Kings fans have suffered enough, and they know better than to be anything more than cautiously optimistic that Gay can maintain his current level of play. Gay is averaging 22.2 points and shooting 37.5 percent on threes. He also is taking 7.4 free throws and snagging 7.1 boards.
So far, Gay is complementing Cousins beautifully; he looks nimble and smooth as ever. He still has a lot the flaws that sometimes frustrate those who root for him (including me) but continues to get baskets in the most effortless manner.
The Kings are on what can only be described as a hot streak and the tables will eventually turn on them. I doubt Gay can remain this efficient as the second option, and this squad will have its ups and downs as it tries to mesh.
By the way, If you are wondering why Cousins is not on this list, it is because he might be good enough to turn his dominating start into a dominating season, despite his temperament.
Tony Wroten, G, Philadelphia: The point guard of the league’s worst team is reckless and flashy in ways that make it seem as if he never had a conversation with a basketball coach. On most nights, you could build a condo out of the bricks he throws in the general direction of the rim or the errant passes to random cameramen. But the 21-year-old lefthander is talented and has the physical tools every coach wants in a point guard.
It is very easy to forget that Chauncey Billiups had the same issues surrounding him as a youngster. Billups was traded during his rookie season and was on four teams in his first three years. This is not to say Wroten is a potential NBA Finals MVP, but players do evolve in those areas as they mature.
Wroten’ is 14th in the league with 21.9 points and 13th with 6.7 assists. But they are coming in a very inefficient manner as he is second in the league with 4.6 turnovers. With Michael Carter-Williams still working his way back from a shoulder injury, Wroten has the keys to a team desperate for some NBA talent. With all that said, you can’t take those numbers away from him. All you can do is wait for them to drop on their own, and they will.
Oren Levi is a writer, amateur scout and diehard NBA fan. Follow him on Twitter.