Three-Man Weave: Conference Calls

We are less than four weeks into the NBA season. And while it is a small sample size, it is large enough to determine whether teams are off to good starts or bad starts.

The bigger question is how long can these teams sustain their starts? For that, we have brought back the Three-Man Weave, where three Sheridan Hoops staff members answer three questions.

Making his Weave debut is columnist Ben DuBose, who also handles our Tuesday blog. He was able to pull himself away from his beloved Missouri Tigers long enough to chime in with his responses.

Let’s get to it.

1. Can the Toronto Raptors finish among the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference?

CHRIS SHERIDAN, EDITOR IN CHIEF: Let’s see … highest point differential in the East? Check. Most raucous fans in the East? Check. A better backcourt than Cleveland or Chicago? Check. A weaker than expected weak Eastern Conference? Check. I do not expect Cleveland’s floundering or Chicago’s injury problems to last forever, but the Raptors are certainly building a cushion that can keep them in top-two contention through April.

CHRIS BERNUCCA, MANAGING EDITOR: Yes, assuming they remain healthy. While it is difficult to look away from the star power in Chicago and Cleveland, the depth falls off pretty quickly on both rosters, especially for the Cavaliers. The Raptors are a legitimate nine deep – 10 players are averaging at least 17 minutes and nine are averaging at least 7.0 points – and can rotate power forwards behind center Jonas Valanciunas. That bench has rallied the Raptors in a couple of games that could have gotten away (Boston, Orlando, Memphis) and allowed Dwane Casey to hand the fourth quarter to Kyle Lowry, who has become the best closer in the conference. Will things change in the playoffs? Certainly. Rotations get shorter and matchups – team and individual – become more important. But if you told Casey right now that he could have the 2-seed and take his chances from there, he would jump at it.

BEN DUBOSE, COLUMNIST/BLOGGER: Yes. For starters, the Raptors were the East’s No. 3 seed a year ago, and the teams in front of them (Indiana, Miami) are substantially worse. And no, I didn’t forget about the Cavs and Bulls, who – assuming health – are poised to be the class of the East come May. But you could make the case Toronto is more equipped to handle the grind of an 82-game season. The Cavs are under .500 as they integrate LeBron James and Kevin Love while attempting to fix bad habits that plague their young guards. The Bulls, meanwhile, are already dealing with multi-game injuries to Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson. I would favor the Bulls or Cavs over the Raptors in May but could see Toronto earning a second seed as those two handle their growing pains. Especially considering the way the Raptors are taking care of their business on a nightly basis (11.8 point differential).

2. Can the Memphis Grizzlies finish among the top two seeds in the Western Conference?

SHERIDAN: Can they? Yes. Will they? I can’t see it. There is just too much competition out West, where playing .667 ball will only get you sixth place in the standings 3 1/2 weeks into the season. One three-game losing streak can knock you from No. 1 to No. 5. That being said, Marc Gasol has justified his placement atop the first version of my weekly MVP rankings, and folks in Memphis are already blasting me on Twitter for suggesting that he might leave for the Knicks or Lakers when he becomes a free agent. Time will tell.

BERNUCCA: Not without help from factors they cannot control. The Grizzlies are an anomaly in the wide open West, winning with defense, two post presences and no perimeter threat. They are almost stubborn in their approach; rarely do they sit either Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph and go to a 1-in, 4-out set. They prefer to play both bigs, allow their defense to deal with the issues that arise and force opponents to match up with them. There is no reason to believe that formula cannot get Memphis into the top half of the West bracket. But to secure a top-two seed, that means only one team will finish ahead of them in the standings. Injuries and trades obviously could change the picture. But given the early strength displayed by Houston, Dallas and Golden State, the inherent star power in San Antonio and Los Angeles and the overall depth of the conference, 58-60 wins seems a stretch.

DUBOSE: No. Although their commitment to defense is refreshing, they seem built for a fast start before slowly flattening out. While many West teams are dealing with injuries (Spurs, Rockets, Thunder) or adjusting to major roster changes (Mavs), the Grizzlies have had the benefit of continuity. Basically, Memphis is playing like you would expect a team led by veterans Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley. They are professional, know each other inside and out and are ready to go from the opening tip. But without an elite perimeter scorer, their upside is somewhat limited. Meanwhile, the Spurs remain the Spurs, the Warriors have Stephen Curry, the Rockets have James Harden, the Clippers have Chris Paul and the Blazers have Damian Lillard. Oh, and the Mavs boast the best point differential in the league. I’m betting at least two of those teams stay clicking long enough to keep Memphis as a middle seed.

3. Which team has been the biggest disappointment so far?

SHERIDAN: Wow, take your pick of the New York teams, and throw in the Lakers for good measure. But while at least two of those three teams will sustain their horrid state through the winter, the clear-cut early season front-runner is the Cavaliers. Yes, we all expected them to have some growing pains. No, we did not expect those growing pains to translate to a sub-.500 record and a team showing an extraordinary lack of effort. They will eventually figure it out, but they are painful to watch right now.

BERNUCCA: Michael Jordan can’t be happy with his Hornets, and you would have thought Stan Van Gundy wouldn’t be this flummoxed by mismatched pieces of the Pistons. But the Cavaliers are a Zippo lighter away from a dumpster fire. It is both frustrating and compelling to watch LeBron James try to teach his new teammates winning habits. His nature has always been to make the right basketball play, critics be damned. His presence has exposed many of his teammates – including supposed stars Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving – as players who have very little understanding of how to win. And collectively, those teammates are dragging down James, who looks like a Mensa member in a special education class.

DUBOSE: Miami. The Heat are mediocre across the board with a 6-6 record and a flat point differential. Dwyane Wade has missed four games and counting and we’re barely three weeks in. Chris Bosh is shooting a career-low 42.6 percent in his new role as No. 1 option. Josh McRoberts, on whom they spent full MLE money, is struggling (2.5 points, 2.6 rebounds). Making matters worse, how do they get better? Despite losing LeBron James, they are capped out until July 2016 with the aforementioned three and Luol Deng. They don’t have attractive young prospects to trade. And they probably won’t have a first-round pick next summer (top 10 protected). You can’t ever count out Pat Riley, but the Heat appear stuck on the mediocrity treadmill. They’re not good enough to seriously contend, but not bad enough to bottom out and acquire a transcendent talent in the draft. They don’t have flexibility, either. Many predicted all this, but others held out hope that Bosh and/or Wade could lift them above it. Thus far, it’s not happening.