My advice here is always free, and last night it wasn’t worth it. Who can predict a scoreless game for DeMar DeRozan (groin) or a 27-point night from Marreese Speights without Marty McFly’s sports book from the future? The biggest gaffe was suggesting that Russell Westbrook (32 PTS, 8 AST, 7 REB in 24 minutes) would not be in that kind of shape yet after missing a month with a broken foot. No, wait. It was liking the Suns in Denver.
Somehow I won a few bucks, thanks to 50/50s and Jeff Teague, but that’s the nature of DFS — grinding it out through uncertainty and surprises, patiently waiting for those nights when it’s your turn to win big. Turning the page to Saturday’s six-pack of NBA games, let’s begin with an apparent mismatch in Cleveland.
Plays of the Day
Big dogs LeBron James $11600, Kyrie Irving $8800 and Kevin Love $8500 could all get fed. Dion Waiters $4300 and Tristan Thompson $4600 lead the reserves. For Indiana, David West $6800 made his season debut last night; whether he’s 100% ready for a back-to-back remains uncertain, but he should be in all traditional fantasy lineups. Rodney Stuckey $4300 (another of Friday’s tips we got right) is again the best bang for the buck.
One lineup I’m using is LBJ and the seven bargains — four players cost $4500 or less. You might prefer to build around someone else, but the principle is the same. One superstar, a couple of crucial $7-9000 stars — I’ve squeezed in three — then if all of your ‘scrubs’ outperform their cost, you’re in the money.
The Hawks look good again at home, as the Hornets gave their all last night in a losing cause. Jeff Teague $7000 is in a terrific groove, Paul Millsap $9000 helps in several categories and Al Horford $7000 is rounding into form. DeMarre Carroll $5000 quietly contributes. For Charlotte, Brian Roberts $4700 has been productive off the bench since Gary Neal (shoulder) got hurt, and Cody Zeller $4500 is starting at PF.
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Those barnstorming Clippers must be getting tired in this seventh consecutive road game, their third in four nights. Forget basketball, that’s a LOT of airports. They did trounce Houston last night with a 30/10 from Blake Griffin $9400. Expecting them to use 13 bodies again, let’s not overlook the other guys. The Jazz are at home with full rest. To snap a four-game losing streak, Trey Burke $5500 and Alec Burks $6300 will have to be at their very best. But remember, Utah doesn’t have to win — or cover — in DFS, just stay reasonably close in a high-scoring game, for any (or all) of them to pay off. Gordon Hayward $7200. Derrick Favors $7100 and Enes Kanter $6100 are also reasonably priced if you like that scenario.
Theoretically, the Bucks are no match for Houston. However, it’s hard to pay retail for James Harden $10400, who cooled off last night and may get rested if the score isn’t close. Tarik Black $3700 and Donatas Motiejunas $4800 become more interesting in that scenario. Beware of Isaiah Canaan $4500, who had been playing well, but left with an injury. Jason Terry $3000 could be the starting PG and Francisco Garcia $3000 gets extra run. Ersan Ilyasova $4900 has the hot hand for Milwaukee, whose second unit beat the Pistons last night, and Jared Dudley $3000 may have emerged from coach Kidd’s doghouse.
This lineup variation ignores all the premium-priced talent and tries to pick eight undervalued guys. (It’s really just a swap of risk-reward James and Zeller for steady performers Millsap and Evans.) You can play it both ways, entering multiple teams in all the most lucrative contests. That increases your chances at the top prize and occasionally results in multiple prizes. The ‘safest’ teams produce better results over the long haul in 50/50 and H2H formats, but they win tournaments often enough.
Fresh off a win in Toronto, the extremely deep and talented Mavericks can toy with Philly and I like Devin Harris $4300 to have a better night. Bench guys like J.J. Barea $4400, Al-Farouq Aminu $3000 and Brandan Wright might have extra value. K.J. McDaniels $4500 and Nerlens Noel $5600 are Sixers to keep an eye on.
It’s not the easiest back-to-back for the Pelicans against two of the East’s better teams and Anthony Davis $11400 doesn’t come cheap. The Wizards have had two nights off since a drubbing in Cleveland. John Wall $9800, Marcin Gortat $6600 and Paul Pierce $5500 are on my short list.
Good luck! See you on the leaderboard.
The Fantasy Spin features DFS advice every day of the NBA season. Follow Kent Williams @SheridanFantasy for updates.