When looking at the lottery picks of the 2014 NBA draft, it’s almost easier to list those who are healthy than those who are not.
The torn ACL suffered this week by No. 2 pick Jabari Parker was devastating news for the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been surprisingly competitive throughout the first third of the season, currently 6th in the East, and appeared to have the Rookie of the Year favorite in their starting lineup.
But Parker’s injury also continued a trend among the most recent lottery picks. With Parker now looking toward training camp for next season, half of them already have had significant injuries that have short-circuited their rookie seasons – or wiped them out altogether. Throw in Dario Saric’s European exodus and an alarming eight of the top 11 picks currently are not playing in the NBA.
In addition to Parker, No. 3 pick Joel Embiid of Philadelphia has a stress fracture in his foot and has been declared out for five to eight months; No. 4 pick Aaron Gordon of Orlando has a broken left foot and is out indefinitely; and No. 5 pick Marcus Smart of Boston, the heir to Rajon Rondo’s old job, has had a severely sprained ankle and an Achilles issue which has cost him 13 of his team’s 23 games.
There’s more. No. 7 pick Julius Randle of the Lakers fractured his tibia and is out for the season; No. 8 pick Noah Vonleh of Charlotte – already a project – cannot crack the rotation because he missed most of training camp recovering from sports hernia surgery; and No. 11 pick Doug McDermott of Chicago recently had knee surgery and is out six to eight weeks.
This can’t come as good news for teams who are trying to rebuild through the draft. Sure, it’s great to have a high draft pick and land the player you want. But that player needs to practice and play against NBA players so management and the coaching staff can evaluate his development, accentuate his strengths and shore up his weaknesses.
For a handful of teams, that process has now been delayed by as much as a year, which can have a dramatic effect on that player’s development.
Look at the Bucks as an example. No one would say that Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 2013-14 rookie season was spectacular. But he did play more than 24 minutes per game over 77 games, gaining valuable experience, and has improved by leaps and bounds across the board as a sophomore.
Conversely, fellow 2013 picks Otto Porter and Alex Len began their rookie campaigns sidelined by injuries and never really got untracked. Philadelphia’s Nerlens Noel sat out his entire first season and now is feeling his way through the NBA.
Rebuilding teams have to make tough decisions on young players when they come due for possible contract extensions after their third seasons. There were a handful of players from the 2011 draft class who had been relatively healthy and seemed worthy of extensions but did not get one because management and ownership wasn’t quite comfortable with forking over eight figures per year.
Now imagine having to make that decision on a player whose body of work is one-third less.
On to the rankings.
1. JABARI PARKER, F, MILWAUKEE: Parker actually played one-plus games this week before going down, so we will honor him one last time before dropping him from the table altogether next week. His final numbers are 12.3 points (currently second among rookies) and 5.5 rebounds (third) while shooting 49 percent. In good news for the Bucks, second-round pick Johnny O’Bryant is finally healthy, and was a starter Thursday at Sacramento. LAST WEEK: 1
2. ANDREW WIGGINS, F, MINNESOTA: He will assume the top spot by default, even though his streak of double-digit games ended at four with a nine-point effort at Washington. Wiggins made just 14-of-39 shots in three games this week, dropping his overall number below .400. He has missed seven straight 3-pointers since Dec. 3 and is shooting 12 percent from the arc in December after shooting 42 percent from deep in November. LAST WEEK: 2
3. NIKOLA MIROTIC, F, CHICAGO: In four games this week, he averaged 9.0 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.0 steals while covering admirably for the absence of injured Taj Gibson. Mirotic is 23, the same age as many players who spend four years in college. But he has been playing professionally in Europe since 2008. There is something to be said for that course of player development. LAST WEEK: 5
4. K.J. MCDANIELS, F, PHILADELPHIA: An ankle injury has limited his athleticism and, in turn, his effectiveness. Sat out one game while managing just six points on 2-of-11 shooting in the other two. After shooting nearly 40 percent from the arc in November, McDaniels has made just 5-of-33 3-pointers in December. With no outside shot and no explosion, the kid’s gonna find it hard to score. LAST WEEK: 3
5. NERLENS NOEL, F-C, PHILADELPHIA: He finally had the breakout game everyone has been begging for, collecting a season-high 19 points, eight rebounds, four assists, three steals and two blocks Wednesday vs. Boston. Of course, it came in a game where Philly was thoroughly outclassed. And Noel was due after managing just four points on 1-of-12 shooting in his previous two games. LAST WEEK: 6
6. ZACH LAVINE, G, MINNESOTA: He is starting to come back to earth a little bit, averaging 9.7 points and 5.0 assists in three games this week while shooting 29 percent (10-of-35) from the field. LaVine is carrying a tremendous burden as a starting point guard for a team that is banged up and playing plenty of youngsters who don’t know how to win. But he’s not embarrassing himself. LAST WEEK: 4
7. ELFRID PAYTON, G, ORLANDO: Here’s a strange stat: Payton is leading the Magic in fourth-quarter minutes (11.6) over the last six games, none of which have been blowouts. He is being used alongside starter Victor Oladipo in smaller lineups and gaining valuable experience. He is still passing (rookie-best 4.8 assists) and defending well. He also is still shooting poorly (38 percent). LAST WEEK: 8
8. BOJAN BOGDANOVIC, F, BROOKLYN: His days as a starter appear to be over for now as coach Lionel Hollins benched BoBo in favor of Sergey Karasev in an effort to jump-start his mediocre team. Bogdanovic had a nice game in a romp over Charlotte, making four 3-pointers for 12 points with six assists. But he followed that with eight points on 2-of-9 shooting over the next two games, both losses. LAST WEEK: 9
9. DANTE EXUM, G, UTAH: He scored in double figures for the first time since Nov. 7 vs. Dallas by going for a dozen at New Orleans and followed the next night with 10 points on 4-of-5 shooting in a win at Miami. Exum has made a 3-pointer in five straight games, shooting 7-of-12 from the arc in that span. It would be nice to see that sort of production on a regular basis. LAST WEEK: NR
10. JUSUF NURKIC, C, DENVER: Two games vs. Houston around a meeting with San Antonio allowed the 6-11, 280-pounder to get off the bench and match up against legitimate centers. He did quite well, collecting 25 points, 21 rebounds and four blocks while giving Dwight Howard a hard time in Wednesday’s home loss. With the LA Clippers, Indiana and Charlotte up next, he could play more. LAST WEEK: NR
DROPOUTS: Kostas Papanikolaou, F, Houston (7); Marcus Smart, G, Boston (10)
FIVE TO WATCH: Kyle Anderson, F, San Antonio; Rodney Hood, G, Utah; Cory Jefferson, F, Brooklyn; Shabazz Napier, G, Miami; Johnny O’Bryant, F, Milwaukee.
Chris Bernucca is the managing editor of SheridanHoops.com. His columns appear Mondays, and his Rookie Rankings on Fridays. Follow him on Twitter.