SH Blog: Decision day looms for Josh Smith with Rockets seen as frontrunners

Let’s start with the obvious: Josh Smith is not going to be claimed on waivers.

It’s true that Smith, 29, won’t be able to sign anywhere until 5 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, when the league office will announce if Smith was claimed in the waiver process. But the only reason Detroit cut Smith, even with over $35 million in guaranteed money still owed, was because they couldn’t find a taker to trade for him at that contract. In other words, no NBA team saw Smith with positive trade value.

Going further, only one NBA team at the moment has the cap room (barring cap-clearing moves) to claim Smith at the $13.5 million he’s owed for the rest of 2014-15. That’s Philadelphia, and courtesy of Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today, we can officially cross the Sixers off the list. And unlike the amnesty process, there’s no such thing as a partial waiver claim. It’s either the whole contract or nothing.

As a result, Smith passing through waivers is essentially a formality. So what happens once he’s free?

Smith will have no shortage of options, it seems. Though no NBA teams saw the left-handed forward as a worthy target at $35 million in guaranteed money, he’s still a very viable player — averaging 13.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game while also possessing the athleticism and versatility to guard multiple opposing positions. It seems most contenders are expressing at least some interest.

The frontrunner, to no surprise, appears to be the Houston Rockets. From Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports:

Houston has strengthened its position as the frontrunner to sign Josh Smith, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

The Rockets and Smith had mutual interest when Smith was last a free agent in July 2013, but Houston didn’t have the immediate cap room after landing Dwight Howard. So rather than wait it out, Smith chose to take the 4-year, $54-million deal sitting on the table from Detroit.

Flash forward to today, though, and money is less of an object. Since Smith already gets his guaranteed money from Detroit even after being released, he’s going to be an extremely well-paid player this year no matter where he goes.

Given that, Houston would seem to work for Smith on multiple levels. He’s said to want a contender, and only one team in the entire league (Golden State) has fewer losses than the 20-7 Rockets.

Smith is also said to want playing time, and with Terrence Jones sidelined indefinitely (six weeks and counting) due to a nerve injury in his leg, the Rockets currently have only two established big men: Howard and Donatas Motiejunas. Motiejunas, in fact, was a bench player heading into the season — so if Smith needs the title of a starting job to be persuaded, it likely wouldn’t be a problem in Houston. Alykhan Bijani of Houston’s Red & Orange Report made a strong illustrative case today showing how Smith could mesh well in Houston’s rotation of bigs.

There’s also the matter of off-court fit. Smith and Howard are extremely close, going back to their AAU days, and Howard was actually the best man in Smith’s wedding a few years ago. Howard confirmed Tuesday that he had already spoken with Smith about the possibility of joining forces in Houston.

So how might Smith end up anywhere besides Houston? If he did, it would likely be because of money. The Rockets have their biannual exception (BAE) for up to $2.1 million to offer Smith, but the Lakers have a disabled player exception for Steve Nash worth up to $4.85 million. Additionally, the Heat have applied to the league office to receive a similar exception for Josh McRoberts at $2.7 million.

The actual difference in take-home pay for Smith, however, is not as significant, according to Eric Pincus of The Los Angeles Times. The NBA’s “set-off” rule, which reduces the Pistons’ financial obligation to Smith once he signs with another team, means Smith would net an additional $2.8 million with the Lakers, $1.7 million with Miami and $1.4 million with the Rockets, assuming all offer their maximum-allotted amount with those aforementioned exceptions.

Considering Smith’s camp has sent out strong signals about Smith wanting to play for a contender, it seems unlikely Smith would pass on the Rockets for the Lakers (8-19) or Heat (13-15), all over what amounts to a gap of $1.4 million or $300,000 — virtual pennies in today’s landscape for NBA stars.

The Clippers and Mavericks are also said to be interested in Smith, and both of those teams can rival Houston’s contending pitch. What they can’t offer, however, is as direct a route to playing time. With Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler entrenched in Dallas and Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in Los Angeles, Smith would lack any sort of viable path to a starting position.

Those teams also can’t offer the same financial package as Houston. While the Rockets still have their bi-annual exception, Los Angeles and Dallas each already used theirs this summer and can only offer a pro-rated veteran’s minimum contract, worth just under $1 million.

Technically, team executives aren’t supposed to have any contact with Smith until the moment he formally becomes a free agent. That won’t come until Wednesday evening, and because of that, we’re unlikely to hear word of a final “agreement” between Smith and Houston (or anyone else) before then.

But it doesn’t seem like it will take long afterward, with Houston GM Daryl Morey likely gifted by Christmas morning with a player he’s coveted for years. And if it happens, it comes at a very opportune time for the Rockets. Houston plays at Memphis and San Antonio over the weekend, and both squads are very much known for their deep front lines.

OTHER NEWS FROM AROUND THE NBA

Josh Smith isn’t the only proven big man potentially on the market. Jermaine O’Neal, now an 18-year NBA veteran, took to Twitter Tuesday to speak out on recent rumors that he could be nearing a return.

For 18 long years sports has dominated my families life to a point that they have had to sacrifice things that was important to them.

So you can believe now whatever decision I make will be a pure family decision that my family will have a huge part on making with me.

Can I physically still play? Probably better than 60% of the bigs in the league today!That’s not a knock on anyone but more about how I feel

My decision will not be based off any personal relationships with a city or organization which will be tuff because of the love I got for them

O’Neal averaged 7.9 points and 5.5 rebounds in 20 minutes per game last season with Golden State, proving he remains a solid rotation piece, and the Warriors do have interest in bringing him back. The Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers are also said to be in the mix.

But the 36-year-old now lives in suburban Dallas, and after the hometown Mavericks dealt center Brandan Wright as part of their trade last week for Rajon Rondo, there’s now a significant hole on the Mavs’ front line. Marc Stein of ESPN reported following the trade that acquiring Rondo gave Dallas an “undeniable edge” in bringing O’Neal back to the NBA.

With O’Neal now saying his choice will be a family decision, it would seem Dallas is in excellent shape to land him once he makes his decision in early 2015.

 

The 76ers are requesting forward Andrei Kirilenko report to Philadelphia and prepare to start playing in games, Yahoo‘s Adrian Wojnarowski reports.

When the Sixers recently traded for Kirilenko, most believed they would simply waive the 33-year-old veteran. Brooklyn gave Philadelphia a second-round pick for taking the $3.3-million contract, which most assumed to be the club’s primary motivation for making the deal. After all, the have the league’s worst record at 3-23 and also have a stated goal of developing younger talent.

But the Sixers always crave more trade assets for their rebuilding, and Kirilenko proving capable could allow them to acquire added value for him by the February trade deadline. From Wojnarowski:

For now, Kirilenko and his representatives are resisting the Sixers’ overtures, preferring the organization waive Kirilenko and let him become a free agent, sources said.

Kirilenko, 33, wants the balance of the $3.3 million owed to him this season, and ultimately the freedom to sign elsewhere on a new deal this season, sources said. So far, he’s been unwilling to join the rebuilding Sixers, but eventually could be mandated to report to the team to collect on his contract.

Kirilenko has a family medical issue that has kept him in the New York area since the trade, and that’s been part of his desire to stay off the court in Philadelphia. Nevertheless, the Sixers believe their close proximity to New York – and the franchise’s expressed willingness to be accommodating on the matter – should necessitate Kirilenko to come to Philadelphia and report to work, sources said.

If Kirilenko wants the $3.3 million owed to him on his current deal, he’ll need to report if Philadelphia asks him to do so. That appears to now be the case, with the ball returned to Kirilenko’s court.

Ben DuBose is a veteran sports reporter who has followed the Houston Rockets and the NBA since Hakeem Olajuwon was Akeem Olajuwon. He writes for both SheridanHoops and ClutchFans, an independent Rockets blog. You can follow him on Twitter.